TIME HAS COME FOR COORDINATED PLAN ON GUYANA

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000499

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/25/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM GY
SUBJECT: TIME HAS COME FOR COORDINATED PLAN ON GUYANA
ELECTIONS

REF: A. GEORGETOWN 471

B. GEORGETOWN 462

C. GEORGETOWN 371

D. GEORGETOWN 308

E. GEORGETOWN 181

Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen
For Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Commonwealth Secretariat's Special Envoy
to Guyana briefed Ambassador and other donor representatives
May 25 on his "depressing" visit to Guyana. The Guyana
Elections Commission (GECOM) conceded May 24 that it would
not be able to hold elections before September 12, beyond
even the amended constitutional due date. Ambassador and UK,
Canada, EU (ABCE Group) chiefs of mission are in unanimous
agreement that the time has come for the international
community to get tough with both the GoG and the main
opposition PNC/R party if there is to be an acceptable
election process. This requires the ABCE Group capitals to
take a coordinated, unified approach to the Guyana problem.
END SUMMARY.

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Election Date Pushed Back (Again)
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2. (SBU) The GECOM commissioners agreed May 19 to extend the
Claims and Objections period by twelve days until June 10.
(Note: Claims and Objections offers voters several weeks to
verify at one of 102 offices that they are registered
correctly or to point out that someone else does not belong
on the list; the entire list is also searchable on GECOM's
web-site). Opposition-nominated commissioners requested the
twelve-day extension because three Claims and Objections
offices in remote interior locations had opened late. The
PPP-nominated commissioners agreed to the delay either
because they believed doing otherwise would invite another
court challenge to elections or as a sop to the opposition
commissioners in the absence of any progress on the real
stumbling block to elections -- verification of the voters
list.


3. (SBU) GECOM's technical staff reworked their election
timeline in light of the extension, resulting in a new plan
to hold elections September 12 -- twelve days later than the
August 31 date that GECOM had unconvincingly held to for the
past six weeks.


4. (U) A September 12 polling date blows right through the
new September 2 constitutional due date for elections (ref
B). Even if the opposition's legal challenge to the
constitutional tinkering that set the new date is dismissed
(ref A),Guyana is now on course to have elections outside
the parameters of the Constitution.

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Commonwealth Envoy's Grave Concerns on where Guyana Headed
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5. (C) ABCE Group received briefing May 25 from the
Commonwealth Secretariat's Special Envoy to Guyana, Sir Paul
Reeves, as he wrapped up his week-long visit to Guyana. Sir
Paul unsuccessfully appealed for Jagdeo to accept his
responsibility, as head of state, to continue speaking with
the opposition leader Robert Corbin to find a solution to the
election morass. Corbin, for his part, expressed only the
slightest willingness to compromise.


6. (C) Sir Paul's main concern is that the election date is
now a "movable feast". The latest September 12 throws Guyana
squarely into an extra-constitutional situation. Although
Jagdeo speaks loosely about invoking emergency powers, the
GoG will soon lack a clear mandate to govern.


7. (C) Sir Paul -- whose disposition is in no way rash or
alarmist -- has concluded that meaningful political change in
Guyana will only come about through coordinated, concerted
international pressure. The donor community in Georgetown

agrees unanimously with this assessment.

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Next Step: Unified Message from ABCE Group
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8. (C) The ABCE Group and UNDP ResRep will reconvene May 29
to discuss a path forward. The key objective is to formulate
a unified message on elections. Donors would deliver this
message to the GoG, the opposition parties, and ideally to
the Guyanese public. Washington, London, Ottawa, and
Brussels would deliver the same message to Guyana's
ambassador/high commissioner in those capitals. The upcoming
OAS General Assembly offers another opportunity to deliver
the message on Guyana's elections.


9. (C) The content of the message will depend on how far the
ABCE capitals are willing to exercise their two principal
leverage points -- multilateral lending and bilateral aid.
The threats of vetoing IDB loans, withholding debt
forgiveness, and rethinking new aid programs are the
strongest cards to bring the PPP to the negotiating table.
These ideas are still very much in their embryonic stages.
For instance, pressure must also be brought to bear on the
recalcitrant opposition -- the point is not just to punish
the GoG. Both the PPP and PNC/R share blame for the sad
state of affairs that prevails in Guyana.
Bullen