POLITICAL STALEMATE CONTINUES: ELECTION PREVIEW #8

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000462

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: POLITICAL STALEMATE CONTINUES: ELECTION PREVIEW #8

REF: A. GEORGETOWN 371


B. GEORGETOWN 344

C. GEORGETOWN 308

D. GEORGETOWN 181


1. (U) SUMMARY. Guyana's election impasse has moved into a
new phase. The country currently has neither a legislature
(dissolved May 2 by President Jagdeo) nor an election date
(no new date has been set since the Guyana Elections
Commission (GECOM) decided April 12 that it could not meet
the August 4 constitutional due date for elections (ref A)).
Over the past month GECOM has worked towards a revised
timeline for an August 31 election day. The GoG has
temporarily bought itself some breathing room by unilaterally
amending the constitution to extend the election deadline by
one month -- a move that has predictably brought threats of
legal action from the opposition. Observers agree that
meeting even this new September 2 constitutional deadline
will be very difficult. While Parliament's dissolution
passed without great incident, opposition leaders at a May 13
rally called on their supporters to take to the streets in
protest. END SUMMARY.

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Governance Status: No Legislature, No Election Date
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2. (U) President Jagdeo dissolved Parliament on May 2 (the
next to last possible day) without bipartisan consensus on
election timing or how to deal with the country's governance
until elections take place. Just prior, Parliament amended
Article 61 of Guyana's constitution to require that elections
be held within four months of Parliament's dissolution,
instead of three months as originally written. The GoG was
able to pass this amendment with a simple majority.
Legislators left Article 69, the other pertinent section,
unchanged -- the new Parliament "shall begin ... four months
from the end" of the prior Parliament's dissolution. Unlike
Article 61, Article 69 is one of the constitution's sections
that requires a two-thirds majority (and thus opposition
support) to amend. The parliamentary opposition parties were
counting on this fact to extract political concessions for
their support of an amendment. Circumvented by the GoG, the
opposition predictably disagrees with the GoG's
constitutional interpretation and has threatened legal
challenge.


3. (SBU) Where does this constitutional tinkering leave the
elections process? On the one hand, the GoG has temporarily
bought itself some breathing room by extending the
constitutional due date for elections to September 2, in
post's estimation. (Note: The parties and GECOM are still
unclear as to whether the actual new due date is September
2nd or 3rd -- underscoring that this was a rush job
constitutional amendment). On the other hand, the consensus
view in Georgetown is that the chances of meeting the new
deadline are slim. Under Article 69, the new Parliament is
still constitutionally mandated to meet by September 2.
GECOM is working on the basis of a timeline with an August 31
election day. This creates an untenable situation. In
practical terms, this means that votes would have to be
transported and counted, results announced, and new MPs named
between August 31 and September 2 -- an almost inconceivable
scenario even in the unlikely event that there are no more
slippages in GECOM's work plan.


4. (U) The GoG's internal legal analysis supporting Article
61's amendment also set forth the opinion that President
Jagdeo and his ministers could remain in their positions
indefinitely until the next elections are held.

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Opposition Election Commissioners Return: But For How Long?
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5. (U) The three opposition-nominated election commissioners
who "withdrew" from GECOM April 15 returned to the fold for
GECOM's May 12 meeting. Nevertheless, the meeting was
acrimonious and unproductive. The source of dispute remains

GEORGETOWN 00000462 002 OF 002


the opposition's demand for verification of the voters list
(reftels). Having set a precedent of retreating when they
fail to get their way, the opposition commissioners could
withdraw again before the May 19 GECOM meeting.

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Faltering Political Dialogue; Opposition Rally Call
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6. (U) The ruling PPP/C and main opposition PNC/R parties
continue to engage in a halting dialogue aimed at resolving
the impasse over verification. If a solution is to be found,
it will have to come from the politicians rather than GECOM.
However, both sides have sent only lukewarm signals of
willingness to compromise.


7. (U) The parliamentary opposition parties held a May 13
rally, urging their supporters to "enter the struggle" and go
"into the streets". PNC/R leader Robert Corbin later invoked
his stock phrase again: "There can be no peace without
justice." As usual, the speakers did not explain what these
statements/threats entail, nor what supporters should do once
they are in the streets.

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OAS Long-term Observers Arrive
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8. (U) OAS' two-person electoral observation mission arrived
in Guyana May 12-13. They are on contract to remain in
country through the end of September and will focus on
technical preparations for the elections.

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Comment
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9. (SBU) Most observers think that further slippages in
election preparations are unavoidable, meaning that the
additional month gained by the constitutional amendment is
merely a superficial fix. The root cause of the unresolved
election delay is the ruling PPP/C and opposition PNC/R's
unwillingness to find a political compromise that allows
elections to proceed in a constructive fashion. Without such
negotiation and compromise, the political temperature in
Guyana will continue to rise as September and a fresh
constitutional crisis draw closer. END COMMENT.

Bullen