Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06GEORGETOWN45
2006-01-13 21:28:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Georgetown
Cable title:  

FLOODS PLAGUE GUYANA, AGAIN

Tags:  SENV PGOV EAGR EAID ECON GY ASEC CASC 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000045 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV PGOV EAGR EAID ECON GY ASEC CASC
SUBJECT: FLOODS PLAGUE GUYANA, AGAIN


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000045

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV PGOV EAGR EAID ECON GY ASEC CASC
SUBJECT: FLOODS PLAGUE GUYANA, AGAIN



1. SUMMARY. Since late December, flooding has plagued
coastal Guyana, particularly the centers of agricultural
production. After initially dismissing the magnitude of the
flooding, the GOG has begun a massive public relations and
relief spending effort. The GoG's initial underestimate of
the magnitude of the flooding, and its ongoing failure to
take preventative measures, suggest the lessons of the
January/February 2005 floods have gone unlearned. END
SUMMARY.


2. Flooding attributed to seasonally high rains has been
plaguing most of coastal Guyana except greater Georgetown
since the end of December. The independent Stabroek News
reported on December 25 that flooding in the eastern region
of Mahaicony had been occurring for a week. The paper
followed on January 5 with reports of flooding in Black Bush
Polder, in the Corentyne region, eastern Guyana. Coverage of
flooding in Canals 1 and 2 polders on the West Bank of the
Demerara River and in the backlands of the Essequibo coast
and the Pomeroon River region soon followed. These are all
agricultural areas a few miles inland from the coastal strip
where 90% of Guyana's population lives. The coast road and
greater Georgetown vicinity has NOT/NOT experienced
significant flooding to date. After an initially slow
response, the GOG has mobilized a highly public flood relief
campaign, with virtually every cabinet minister visiting one
of the affected regions.


3. No Embassy properties have been affected, and Peace Corps
reports no volunteers are in the affected areas. Post's
Emergency Action Committee has met to review flood tripwires
and responses.

--------------
UNCERTAIN CAUSES
--------------


4. Opinions about the causes of the flooding have been as
political as they have been meteorological. The GOG
attributes the flooding to excessive rainfall in the
interior, noting for instance that in some areas of the
Pomeroon, five inches of rain have fallen for every three
that have drained. In some early statements, GOG officials

also laid the blame on the failure of local government
institutions to adequately maintain the drainage system.
Agriculture Minister Satyadeow Sawh has also been quoted
criticizing the media for inaccurate coverage of the
flooding. Opposition leader Robert Corbin criticized the
administration for the flooding in his New Year's address.
The Government Information Agency condemned his remarks and
countered that climate change contributed to heavy rainfall
that caused the floods, noting that the U.S. has also
experienced heavy rains. Cracks of blame have also appeared
within the ruling party. Presidential Secretariat Head Roger
Luncheon publicly criticized the government's own Minister
of Housing and Water, Sheik Baksh, saying t his weekly media
briefing that Baksh should be "pilloried" for lack of
results.


5. Meanwhile, some farmers in the affected regions have
speculated that flooding was due to drainage from the East
Demerara Water Conservancy (EDWC). The Mahaicony region
flooded in early 2005 after officials made the eleventh-hour
decision to open the drainage outlets into the Mahaica River
to facilitate drainage in Georgetown and ease pressure on
the EDWC. Others counter that this theory is implausible due
to the localized nature of the flooding; drainage from the
EDWC would first flood Mahaica, which was also devastated in
the 2005 floods but has been spared to date. Some farmers
contend that a water storage project in the area has
channeled excess drainage into the Mahaica Creek, which has
overrun its banks. Independent television commentator Tony
Vieira further speculated in his weekend commentary that the
failure to adequately dredge the Mahaica River's mouth has
led to a build-up of silt that prevents adequate drainage.
The Consul also reported evidence of trash and poor
maintenance of canals following a recent trip to the Berbice
region. NOTE: Post has been tracking the water level in the
EDWC, in accordance with the Emergency Action Plan. Post has
also been receiving data from the Hydromet Office, however,
this information is of limited use, as thirteen of fourteen
rainfall gauges are on the coast and thus do not report
interior rainfall. END NOTE.

--------------
UNCERTAIN EFFECTS
--------------


6. The economic effects of the flooding remain to be seen.
The flooded areas are primarily used for rice cultivation
and cattle rearing, and media reports have stated that some
28,000 acres of rice have been lost. According to the Rice
Producers Association, this would amount to G$1.1 billion
(US$5.5 million) assuming a price of G$1,600 (US$7.96) per
bag and output of 25 bags per acre. Meanwhile, President
Jagdeo said in a press conference on January 9 that as many
as 300 head of cattle had perished as a result of the flood.
There have also been spot reports of prices for local
produce doubling at markets in Parika and Georgetown.
However, PolOff reports that prices were unchanged as of
Saturday, January 7.


7. The long-term impact of the flooding is debatable.
However, Nizam Hassan, Executive Director of the New Guyana
Marketing Corporation, told EconOff on January 7 that he
believes flood loss estimates, based on individual farmer's
requests for flood relief compensation, are overblown. He
does not yet anticipate a threat to production of produce.
In addition, with election year politics as a background,
the GoG's announcements of flood relief, even if they were
to materialize, may not be a reliable indicator of true
flood damages.


8. The impact on government finances is also an issue.
President Jagdeo has already pledged at least G$60 million
(US$299 thousand) in emergency flood relief and has said
that the GOG may need to spend as much as G$500 million
(US$2.5 million) to buy equipment to drain the flooded
areas. The GOG has not made nor received any requests for
international assistance as of January 10.


9. The Health Ministry issued a statement on January 8
warning citizens of the risk of leptospirosis, a water-borne
disease carried in animal urine. The disease was responsible
for 15 deaths during the early 2005 floods. The Ministry of
Health has placed 12 supposed cases on the high index of
suspicion since November, two of which have tested positive.


10. COMMENT: What is not questionable is the GOG's
mishandling of the flood situation. After initially
dismissing the media's coverage of the flood problem as
overblown, then saying it had not been properly kept abreast
of the situation, the GOG is now engaged in a high profile
scramble to address the matter. This inept response
presented opposition parties with a golden opportunity to
score political points with a disaffected Guyanese public in
an election year, but the rudderless opposition failed to
capitalize. This is the normally rainy season in coastal
Guyana, and many of the affected areas were also underwater
during last year's devastating floods. The absence of
simple factual data about levels of rainfall and status of
drainage infrastructure combined with the GOG's incoherent
approach suggests that Guyana has learned little from the
past and remains at the mercy of the rains. END COMMENT.

BULLEN