GUYANA ELECTION DELAYED, PROESS IN DISARRAY:

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000371

SIPDIS





SIPDIS

WHA/AR
WHA/OAS
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDM OAS GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA ELECTION DELAYED, PROESS IN DISARRAY:
PREVIEW #7

REF: A. GEORGETOW 344

B. GEORGETOWN 328

C. GEORGETOWN 08

D. GEORGETOWN 181

Classified By: Ambasador Roland W. Bullen
For reason 1.4 (d)


1. U) SUMMARY. The Guyana Elections Commission (GECO) says
it cannot deliver elections by the Auust 4 constitutional
due date and will not be ready before August 30. This raises
thorny constitutional questions about Guyana's governance
after August 4. GECOM has also failed to set a new election
date, which leaves the process in limbo. Making matters
worse, the three opposition election commissioners have
"withdrawn" from GECOM, further disrupting the process.
President Bharrat Jagdeo and opposition leader Robert Corbin
met April 19 - an encouraging sign - but did not achieve a
breakthrough. As it currently stands, if key compromises are
not reached by May 4 when Parliament dissolves, Guyana will
be left with neither a legislature nor an election date. END
SUMMARY.

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It's Official: No Elections by Constitutional Deadline
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2. (SBU) GECOM decided April 12 that it cannot meet the
August 4 constitutional deadline for elections and,
furthermore, cannot deliver elections before August 30.
However, GECOM stopped short of declaring a new election
date, leaving the election timeline in disarray. In the
absence of official word, several rumors are circulating
Georgetown about when elections might be held. The
donor-funded Joint International Technical Assessor (JITA)
who monitors GECOM's activities told PolOff that GECOM is
capable of delivering elections by August 31 and that any
failure to do so will only be the result of "deliberate
sabotage" by political forces who do not want elections to
take place.

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Sulking Opposition Commissioners Withdraw from GECOM
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3. (SBU) The three opposition-nominated GECOM commissioners
announced April 15 that they had "withdrawn" - but did not
resign - from GECOM. (Note: Actually resigning would entail
financial hardships such as having to retroactively pay duty
on their imported duty-free personal vehicles.) They cited
GECOM Chairman Steve Surujbally's misleading and
non-transparent management style as the reason why they could
no longer work with him. The commissioners have made their
point, storming away from the table but preserving the option
to return.


4. (SBU) The commissioners and GECOM staff have often
expressed their frustration with Surujbally in the past five
years. But the real impetus for their action now is that
Surujbally voted with the PPP-nominated commissioners to
proceed with printing of the Preliminary List of Electors, a
step the opposition opposes. Casting the tie-breaking (4 to
3) vote was unprecedented and it paves the way for the Claims
and Objections exercise to begin May 2. Proceeding with
Claims and Objections now is critical if elections are to be
held without additional delay.


5. (SBU) Where does this leave the elections process? The
absence of opposition commissioners might make it easier for
GECOM to make urgently needed decisions - the constitution
allows the remaining three commissioners and the Chairman to
form a quorum. But this would give the opposition parties a
very convenient excuse for disowning and discrediting the
election process at a later date. Corbin made this perfectly
clear in declaring that "the elections commission is treading
on dangerous ground" if it plans to make decisions about
elections without the opposition commissioners.

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Jagdeo, Corbin Meet: A First Step Towards Dialogue
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6. (SBU) President Jagdeo met with opposition leader Robert
Corbin April 19, a step that post and other donors have been
urging for months. The upshot was an agreement to establish
a four-person team to assess the constitutional implications
of the now inevitable delay of elections beyond their August
4 due date. This team will be comprised of two from each
side - reported to be Attorney-General Doodnauth Singh and
Speaker of Parliament Ralph Ramkarran on one side, with PNC/R
Chairman Winston Murray and senior counsel Rex McKay on the
other. Ramkarran and Murray command some respect as
independent-minded politicians, but it is difficult to
foresee how a structure that pits the two parties evenly
against each other will bring any resolution to the extremely
contentious constitutional questions at play.


7. (SBU) The Jagdeo-Corbin meeting, although a useful first
step in reestablishing dialogue, does not mean that
compromise is in the offing. The opposition PNC/R's weekly
statement April 20 flatly sets out its position - Jagdeo and
his cabinet cannot hold office after August 4 without a
constitutional amendment requiring a two-thirds majority vote
in the National Assembly. This further supports post's view
that the opposition's strategy remains the same - to trade
its support for a constitutional amendment in exchange for
full house-to-house verification as a concession.


8. (SBU) Baroness Amos, leader of the UK House of Lords and
Tony Blair confidante, will visit her native Guyana the
weekend of April 29-30 following the UK-CARICOM summit in
Barbados. She plans to use the occasion to talk some sense
into Guyana's political leaders - and not a moment too soon
as the Parliament dissolves May 4, at which time Guyana will
have neither a legislature nor an election date.

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Continued Veiled Threats by Opposition Troublesome
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9. (C) The PNC/R also launched another personal broadside
against Surujbally in its April 20 statement, accusing him of
"pursuing a dangerous program of deception". In the wake of
the April 22 assassination of GoG cabinet-member Satyadeow
Sawh (septel),this type of rhetoric is no laughing matter.
Surujbally, who has been the focus of verbal attacks by
opposition politicians for months, recently confided to
Ambassador that he considers himself a "dead man walking".


10. (C) The PNC/R leaders have made a habit of peppering
their public statements with references to the chaos and
violence that will ensue if election preparations continue on
their current path. Of course, they point to other
uncontrollable, unnamed elements as the sources of such
unrest. Post believes these veiled threats are irresponsible
and inflammatory, giving succor to those who want to disrupt
the election process. Post will devise and seek Department
concurrence on tactics to be used against political parties
that directly or indirectly promote election-related violence.

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Comment
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11. (SBU) Guyanese bristle at comparisons between their
country and Haiti. Yet, as one letter-writer put it recently
in the Stabroek News, Guyana "is suffering from gross
managerial incompetence" if after five years and US$15
million, GECOM cannot deliver an election for less than
500,000 voters on time. Recent events underscore GECOM's
fundamentally flawed structure where the politically
appointed commissioners are put in straightjackets by their
political masters.


12. (SBU) Comment continued. GECOM made a critical mistake
when it failed to set a new election date when announcing
August 4 was no longer achievable. We are now in a state of
limbo. GECOM staff are moving ahead with preparations for an

August 31 poll date. But as far as the opposition parties
are concerned, nothing can happen until a full house-to-house
verification exercise is agreed to and a deal is struck on
post May 4 governance. And so with each passing week that
these fundamental issues go unresolved, Guyana heads closer
to a Haiti-like scenario of election delays. End comment.
BULLEN