GUYANA POLL DATE UNDER THREAT: ELECTION PREVIEW #6

C O N F I D E N T I A L GEORGETOWN 000308

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

WHA/CAR
WHA/OAS
S/CRS
SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINS KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA POLL DATE UNDER THREAT: ELECTION PREVIEW #6

REF: A. GEORGETOWN 248


B. GEORGETOWN 181

C. GEORGETOWN 167

D. GEORGETOWN 71

E. 05 GEORGETOWN 1350

Classified By: Ambassador Roland W. Bullen
For reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. The likelihood of Guyana holding elections
by the August 4 constitutional due date has plummeted over
the past ten days. The Guyana Elections Commissioner (GECOM)
Secretariat - the technical staff - took the country by

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surprise March 24 when they circulated a draft revised plan
showing an election date (E-day) pushed back from July 18 to
September 25. Because of the resulting uproar, GECOM has
continued to tweak the revised plan and, as of a March 31
draft, E-day is slated for August 24. Any delay beyond
August 4 is cause for serious concern, as it would usher in
an unpredictable and volatile political situation. All
stakeholders must take decisive action within the next two
weeks - otherwise an election delay is inevitable. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) Key Guyana elections developments in the past two
weeks:

- March 21: Charge meets with PNC/R leaders, who reiterate
their stance that publishing a preliminary voters list (PVL)
- to be used in the "claims and objections" (C&O) period -
based on the 2001 voters list without prior house-to-house
verification of every name on the list is "unacceptable" and
wil not be allowed to happen. The proposed house-tohouse
verification would cost US$2 million and tae at least six
months (ref B).

- March 24: Doors meet with GECOM just as the revised plan
wit the September 25 E-day is circulated. GECOM Chaiman
Dr. Steve Surujbally calls the revised plan "first step
towards the bloodbath."

- March 2: President Jagdeo calls impromptu meeting with
mbassador and UK, Canada, and EU chiefs of missionto
express his displeasure with the revised plan saying he
"can't contemplate an extension" beyod August 4.

- March 27: Jagdeo calls all-hands meting - with donors,
GECOM (including Surujballyand the other six commissioners),
and both JointInternational Technical Assessors (JITAs) - to
ubraid GECOM for not fulfilling its mandate to delier
elections within the constitutional timeframe.

- March 28: GECOM commissioners hold their stattory weekly
meeting, fail to make any of the decisions needed to break
the political impasse over election preparations.

- March 29: Donors issue joint statement that they "are
satisfied that the GECOM Secretariat has the technical
capability and capacity . . . to deliver free and fair
elections within the constitutional timeframe".

- March 29-31: GECOM staff, JITAs, and some commissioners
hold working sessions on the revised plan, move the proposed
E-day to August 24, but no formal decision is taken.


3. (U) There are four protagonists in this unfolding drama:
GECOM; Jagdeo and the ruling PPP/C party; the parliamentary
opposition parties (led by the PNC/R); and the international
donors. However, the Guyanese electorate - who should be the
fifth protagonist - is virtually precluded from participating
due to political manipulation.

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GECOM
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4. (SBU) The GECOM commissioners remain deadlocked 3-vs-3
along political lines. Chairman Surujbally can break the
deadlock by casting a deciding vote, but he is extremely
reluctant to do this, out of both a desire for consensus
decision-making and a not unreasonable fear for his personal
safety.


5. (C) The GECOM Secretariat, led by Chief Elections Officer
Gocool Boodhoo, is extremely frustrated by the commissioners'
inability to agree on key issues, thus preventing the
Secretariat from completing its election preparations. At

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Jagdeo's March 27 meeting, an exasperated Boodhoo spelled out
clearly the four critical decisions that the commissioners
must make quickly to get preparations back on track: a) how
to handle verification of the voters list; b) how to compose
the PVL; c) how to incorporate results from the Electoral
Office of Jamaica fingerprint analysis project (ref E); and
d) when to set the eligibility cut-off date for 18 year olds
to vote. Even with these timely decisions Boodhoo believes
holding elections by August 4 would be "difficult".


6. (U) Moving ahead with printing the PVL is of utmost
importance because that will serve as the basis for the C&O
process when political parties and the public can come
forward with information to further refine the voters list.
C&O was scheduled to commence April 4. The draft plan has
C&O delayed until May 2 - a major disruption to the election
timeline.


7. (U) The atmosphere at GECOM is tense. Inside, the
Secretariat is working under pressure to craft a realistic

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election plan, while their political masters bicker rather
than give urgently needed policy guidance. Outside,
opposition protesters continue to picket demanding full
house-to-house verification; GECOM even received a bomb
threat March 29.

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Jagdeo & PPP/C
--------------


8. (C) Jagdeo is very concerned that an election delay will
tarnish his reputation on the international stage - he seems
desperate not to be seen as a head of state who cannot hold
elections on time. In meetings with donors and GECOM, Jagdeo
expressed his utter disbelief that E-day could slip from July
18 in the original plan to September 25. He repeatedly asked
- and did not receive a satisfactory answer - what had
changed to throw off the election schedule. He is "totally
against" a postponement of elections past the August 4
constitutional due date and challenged GECOM to fulfill its
mandate to conduct elections by then. Specifically, he told
GECOM Chairman Surujbally that he should cast a deciding vote
if necessary.


9. (SBU) Jagdeo misstepped tactically in calling the March 27
meeting with GECOM and donors before the commissioners had
the opportunity to discuss the revised plan. This has led to
strong criticism from the opposition that he is meddling in
GECOM's work.

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PNC/R - Opposition
--------------


10. (U) The revised plan plays directly into the opposition's
hands. Almost every relevant opposition party (with the
exception of the upstart Alliance For Change) endorses an
election postponement, as that is the easiest way for them to
gain leverage in negotiating with the GoG. The national
assembly must dissolve no later than May 4. The national
assembly's life can be extended with a constitutional
amendment supported by a two-thirds majority, which would
require the PNC/R's support.


11. (C) The opposition will use any election delay as a
pretext to press even harder for full house-to-house
verification of the 2001 voter's list that will be the basis
for the 2006 PVL. The PNC/R leadership revealed the true
motive behind their insistence at March 21 meeting with
Charge. They want to remove emigrants from the voters list
on the flimsy assumption that emigrants are predominantly
Indo-Guyanese and therefore more likely to be PPP supporters.
(Note: At least 100,000 Guyanese have emigrated since 2001.
There is no overseas voting, but Guyanese emigrants maintain
the constitutional right to vote and may return to Guyana to
do so. The voter's list was accepted by party leaders before
the 2001 election and verified by Guyanese and international
scrutineers both before and after the 2001 election. Even
with an otherwise unnecessary "verification" exercise, no
legal means currently exist to disenfranchise emigrants.)


12. (C) At the same meeting, the PNC/R leaders said that
young Afro-Guyanese are drawn to more extreme factions
advocating an election boycott. They explained that a delay
would "minimize that element's basis for anger", a not so
subtle allusion to the very real threat of political violence
if the PNC/R's demands go unmet.

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Donors
--------------


13. (U) Donors remain determined not to get embroiled in the
internal political dispute over election preparations. They
are wary of getting dragged into the blame game over
elections that has already begun.


14. (U) The donor signatories (U.S., UK, Canada, EC) to the
elections memorandum of understanding with GECOM and the GoG
issued a joint statement March 29. In it, the signatories
stated they "are satisfied that the GECOM Secretariat has the
technical capability and capacity . . . to deliver free and
fair elections within the constitutional timeframe", and they
"urge all political parties . . . to work with GECOM to find
timely responses to the political challenges" to elections.


15. (SBU) Donors agree that the most promising way to get
election preparations back on track and to minimize political
violence is through a strong high-level international
political presence on the ground. This was a key element of
the OAS proposal for a Guyana Electoral Observation Mission
circulated to donors several weeks ago. However, OAS A/SYG
Albert Ramdin has stopped seeking someone to fill that role
because of inadequate donor response to OAS' funding request
for this mission. (Note. USG has committed US$50,000; Canada
CDN$75,000; and Brazil US$5,000.) The funding gap is over
US$400,000.


16. (SBU) The PNC/R must be offered some inducement to
convince it to cooperate with elections. During Ramdin's
February 12-15 visit to Guyana he mooted the concept of a
pre-electoral pact "guaranteed by the international
community", committing the political parties to implement
reforms to Guyana's governance system immediately after
elections (ref C). The international community has very
little leverage to force the PNC/R to cease obstructing the
election process. Ramdin's proposed political pact is the
best bargaining chip available, but will require a
high-level, multilateral initiative to broker a deal.

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Comment
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17. (SBU) The window of opportunity to get Guyana's election
process back on track is closing fast - so fast that unless
GECOM and other stakeholders (including the USG and other
donors) take decisive action within the next two weeks,
Guyana has no chance of sticking to its constitutional
timeframe. As of now, the JITAs believe that GECOM "could
still pull off the elections if it had the will" to do so.


18. (SBU) Comment continued. Despite the ongoing debate over
when E-day should be, the fundamental impasse remains the
opposition's reluctance to go ahead with elections they are
convinced they will lose. The opposition will not commit to
the electoral process until it gets a good enough political
deal to compensate. Post firmly believes that Ramdin's
proposed OAS Electoral Observation Mission offers the best
chance to clinch such a deal. The likely alternative is
sobering - the opposition will stonewall on elections while
its militant factions use verification as an excuse to commit
political violence. End comment.
BULLEN