GUYANA FLOOD UPDATE: WATER LEVEL STABLE

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 000121

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

SOUTHCOM ALSO FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SENV AEMR EAID PGOV GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA FLOOD UPDATE: WATER LEVEL STABLE

REF: (A) GEORGETOWN 70, (B) GEORGETOWN 59,

(C) GEORGETOWN 58, (D) GEORGETOWN 53,
(E) GEORGETOWN 45, (F) GEORGETOWN 41


1. SUMMARY: Several days of relatively good weather have
allowed water levels in affected areas to lower slightly.
The GOG declared two of the affected regions disaster areas
and briefed donors of the potential need for assistance in
mitigation and disaster prevention. Meanwhile, reports of
vandalism of the water management system have pitted farmers
against cattle ranchers in flood relief efforts. END
SUMMARY.

--------------
A Wet January
--------------

2. The water level in the East Demerara Water Conservancy
(EDWC) remains elevated but falling following heavy rainfall
beginning in late December and continuing through January.
Rainfall in Georgetown for the month of January totaled 22
inches, three times the historical average. The Government
of Guyana declared Guyana's Administrative Region 5,
Mahaica/Berbice, a disaster area as well as the Pomeroon
River catchment area in Administrative Region 2,
Pomeroon/Supenaam on Saturday, January 28, briefing the
donor community of the potential need for financing for
disaster prevention and mitigation, including rehabilitation
of livelihoods and drainage infrastructure. A team from
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin American and
the Caribbean (ECLAC) is expected in Guyana shortly to
conduct an assessment of the flood situation in the disaster
areas.


3. An officer from USAID's Office of Foreign Disaster
Assistance visited the Mahaica River area on January 29 and
reported no apparent demand for large scale humanitarian
assistance. Many residents of the affected areas are
reportedly holding fast in their homes. The UN estimates
that that around 3,500 families are affected by the floods,
and 400 individuals are currently being housed in shelters
operated by the Civil Defence Commission.


4. Reports of vandalism of the drainage system have surfaced
at several points along the East Coast. Officials speculate
that cattle farmers, whose stock graze on land between the
Conservancy and the Crown Dam that divides the grazing area
from lands used for rice farming, have disabled the kokers
and cut holes in the crown dam so as to drain the grazing
land. This saves cattle, but floods villages. The GOG has
dispatched joint police-military patrols to monitor the
situation and offered a GD 1 million award (USD 4,975) for
information leading to the arrest of vandals.


5. EDWC management has placed 20,000 sandbags along a
section of the dam identified a vulnerable to overtopping. A
heretofore unused outlet to the Atlantic has also started to
drain water out of the conservancy.

--------------
A Call for Reliable Information
--------------

6. There is concern about conflicting reports of water
levels in the EDWC. The EDWC Water Level Management Manual
developed in the aftermath of the January floods calls
states that the water level as measured at the Lama sluice
should not exceed 58.5 GD during rainy season. The EDWC
board should aim to have water level at the Full Supply
Level of 57.5 GD at the end of the rainy season. The water
level also serves as a tripwire at various stages of post's
disaster preparedness scenarios. Consul is in regular
contact with EDWC staff, who measure and report the EDWC
water levels. The measurements he reports are often
different from those reported by the Guyana Information
Agency. Major General (ret.) Joe Singh, a key figure in the
Guyana Concerned Citizen's Initiative for Flood Relief NGO
founded in response to the January 2005 floods, told the
Ambassador that he believes the GOG deliberately
underreports water levels in the EDWC to avoid causing
panic. Comment: the difference may also be due to the fact
that water levels vary over time and the levels reported by
GINA are normally several hours old by the time they hit the
wires.


7. Col. John Lewis, a member of the Strategic Emergency
Engineering Committee charged with drafting an engineering
response to last year's floods, believes that the manager of
the EDWC may actually exaggerate the water level in the EDWC
to elevate his own status. What is clear is that water
management officials have not held fast to the tripwires in
the EDWC management plan, as the water level has
occasionally briefly risen above the 58.5 GD limit at Lama
prescribed in the plan.

--------------
Estimated Impacts
--------------

8. The flooding has sparked media discussion of food
security in light of the loss of land under cultivation. The
price of some produce at local markets has doubled, as the
many of flooded areas are prime agricultural locations. The
floods have elevated food prices as well. The price of food
as measured in the Urban Georgetown Consumer Price Index
rose 7.8% year on year at the end of December 2005. The
current round of flooding has raised prices for several
produce. Potatoes, which sold for GD55/pound (USD 0.27) in
September 2005 were selling for GD90/pound (USD 0.45) in
late January, an increase of 64%. The price of eddoes, a
common substitute, has risen one-third, from GD45/pound to
GD60/pound. Reports on the impact on rice production are
mixed, with the Guyana Rice Producers Organization saying
28,000 acres have been inundated while the Guyana Rice
Development Board places the figure at 12,000 acres.
General Singh estimates that 60,000 cattle risk dying.
The Guyana Sugar Corporation (Guysuco) has estimated a
potential loss of USD 6 million as a result of a delay in
the beginning of the grinding season due to the weather.


9. The GOG has been distributing cash crop farmers in Region
5 an assistance package of GD100,000 (USD 498) each. The GOG
stepped back from plan to distribute an additional 5,000
flood relief checks by the first week of February after
being overwhelmed by requests. President Jagdeo issued a
statement urging flood affected people to apply for only one
check per household.


10. An assessment of the leptospirosis situation is being
reported septel.

BULLEN