GUYANA: OUR POST-ELECTION AGENDA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 GEORGETOWN 001043

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/04/2016
TAGS: PGOV EAID PHUM KDEM OAS GY
SUBJECT: GUYANA: OUR POST-ELECTION AGENDA

REF: A. (A) GEORGETOWN 546


B. (B) GEORGETOWN 595

C. (C) GEORGETOWN 915

Classified By: AMBASSADOR DAVID ROBINSON FOR REASONS 1.5 (B)(D)


1. (C) Summary: President Bharrat Jagdeo starts his second
five-year term with a firm parliamentary majority and
apparent control over his own People's Progressive Party
(PPP). He aligned his priorities in an October 2
conversation with the Ambassador as breaking Guyana's wave of
violent crime and improving the investment climate, but
foresees only a slow, ten-year climb out of poverty. Jagdeo
wants help from the donor community, includig IDB debt
relief, but may sidestep long-term reform. We should
continue pushing for local elections, building parliamentary
capacity, expanding civil society's role, and opening the
media. Jagdeo may not enthusiastically embrace our
longer-range agenda, but he is unlikely to oppose it. End
Summary.


2. (C) During a relaxed conversation in his office with the
Ambassador on October 2, Jagdeo said combating violent crime
is his top priority. He added that the progressive speech he
gave at the opening of parliament on September 28 was
political rhetoric, necessary but not prescriptive. It
outlined a hugely ambitious program to, among other things,
furnish 80 percent of houses in Guyana with internet
connections within five years.


3. (C) In contrast, Jagdeo told the Ambassador his early
focus will be narrowly on increased and better policing, and
called chronic insecurity the biggest impediment to
investment. Jagdeo went on to note his previous
administration's success in drawing down the public debt by
about $900 million--and said he will push Mexico and Brazil
to endorse IDB debt relief this time around--but suggested
that under even idyllic circumstances Guyana faces at least a
ten-year uphill slog out of poverty. (Note: Locally, the
donor community, and particularly the British, Canadian and
EU representatives, view the remaining loan as offering
perhaps the only effective pressure on Jagdeo for
constitutional reform and political inclusion. A former
finance minister, Jagdeo continues to play that role in
practice (refs A and B). End note).


4. (C) Ref C notes that Jagdeo may not be inclined to tackle
extensive constitutional or other structural reforms in his
second term, and this conversation seemed to support that
view. He is a lame duck, public expectations for his
performance are low, and political opposition is for now
inconsequential. At the moment, he seems content to answer
the daily headlines, a sad catalog of murder and abuse, and
ignore a broader mandate. In fact, the British High
Commissioner told the Ambassador later on October 2 that
Jagdeo balked at a UK security sector reform proposal he had
requested early in 2006 because it relied heavily on planning
and training rather than providing material support for
street patrols. A complementary IDB program also is on hold.


5. (C) Jagdeo's apparent bias for quick results and hardware
may lessen his interest in a reform agenda, but it should not
fundamentally alter our own action plan. Specifically, but
not exclusively, we will continue to advocate for electoral
and constitutional reform, including local elections probably
in 2008; push for a greater role for civil society and the
private sector in political debate and policy making; and
encourage passage of the stalled broadcast bill to open the
media and dislodge state control over radio. In the
meantime, PEPFAR (the President's Emergency Plan for Aids
Relief) continues to bridge the gap between Jagdeo's demand
for immediacy and our focus on capacity building by molding
effective partnerships between business, civic and public
institutions that deliver goods and services to both urban
and rural communities.


6. (C) Comment: More than a month after his win at the
polls, Jagdeo has not crossed the threshold from politics to
governance. The President says he is satisfied with progress
in his first term, despite declining competitiveness and
quality of life indicators, and has set his sights low for
the second. In fact, since Jagdeo took office in 1999,
growth has nearly flatlined at 0.5 percent. Attaching
benchmarks or conditions to debt relief may be the only lever

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that gets a useful rise. End comment.
ROBINSON