FRUSTRATED WITH MUGABE, BOTSWANA TO TIGHTEN BORDER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 GABORONE 000653

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/08/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL SMIG KCRM GM ZI BC
SUBJECT: FRUSTRATED WITH MUGABE, BOTSWANA TO TIGHTEN BORDER

REF: A. 05 GABORONE 651

B. 05 GABORONE 939

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Classified By: AMBASSADOR KATHERINE H. CANAVAN FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D


1. (C) SUMMARY: Despite its frustration with President
Mugabe's misrule, the Government of Botswana has no
proactive strategy for dealing with the problem. Caught
between the opinion of most donor governments on one hand
and its neighbors' demand for regional solidarity on the
other, the GOB has uneasily settled on a policy of waiting,
watching and not rocking the boat. Spill-over effects of
the Mugabe regime's bad governance, however, could force
the Government to change its tack, especially illegal
immigration and the spread of hoof and mouth disease.
President Mogae has ordered the border with Zimbabwe to be
reinforced in order to limit the surreptitious movement of
potentially diseased cattle across it and the Botswana
Defense Force has enhanced its border patrols. Given the
poor state of Botswana-Zimbabwe relations, this could
revive the public acrimony last seen in 2003. As
demonstrated by German President Kohler's visit, putting
Botswana on the spot regarding Zimbabwe is prone to
back-fire. END SUMMARY

HOOF AND MOUTH OUTBREAK TRACED TO ZIMBABWE


2. (U) An outbreak of hoof and mouth disease (termed foot
and mouth in the local press) has caused
the most recent strain on Botswana-Zimbabwe relations. On
April 26, the Botswana Meat Corporation announced that it
had shut down its abattoirs after the confirmed discovery
of over 200 cases of hoof and mouth disease in the area of
Bobirwa, along the Zimbabwe border. Assistant Minister of
Agriculture Peter Siele said that the outbreak likely
resulted from the smuggling of meat or cattle from
Zimbabwe. Farmers expressed frustration that the
low-voltage electric fence being erected by the government
along the border is often damaged by elephants and cut by
illegal immigrants, leaving gaps through which stray cattle
wander into Botswana, bringing with them hoof and mouth
disease. The BMC lost over $1.5 million when it shut down
for two weeks in 2003 after an outbreak of hoof and mouth
disease that was also believed to stem from Zimbabwe.


3. (C) In a May 11 meeting, Minister of Foreign Affairs
Mompati Merafhe told the Amassador that the Cabinet had
decided to vaccinat cattle in the affected area, rather
than slaugher them and re-stock as it had done during
previus outbreaks. It reached this conclusion, he said,
after recognizing that the border with Zimbabwe will be a
potential source of hoof and mouth outbreaks "for a long
time." The GOB intends to erect an additional 2.4
meter-high fence around the affected area to prevent
contamination of the nearby Central District, the heartland
of Botswana's beef industry. Because the EU market does
not allow import of cattle vaccinated against the disease,
he said, the Government is looking at prohibiting the
import of beef into this area, which includes Botswana's
third largest city, Selebi-Phikwe, in order to insure that
cattle producers there have some market for their beef.

GOB TO TIGHTEN BORDER WITH ZIMBABWE


4. (C) When asked if the GOZ was being helpful on this
issue, Merafhe scoffed. "They are being absolutely
dishonest," he replied, by denying the existence of hoof
and mouth disease on their side of the border "even though
we know they are affected". He shared that the GOB had
offered to donate vaccines for the GOZ to administer but
was told that they lacked petrol to distribute them to
farmers. When the GOB then offered to send its own
veterinary professionals to assist them, the GOZ declined.
As a consequence of Zimbabwe's non-cooperative approach to
the problem, Merafhe stated, the GOB has decided to tighten
border security in this area. It is mobilizing additional
soldiers and police personnel as well as reinforcing the
fence where it has been damaged in order to minimize the
surreptitious movement of cattle across the border.
Merafhe estimated the costs of the GOB's response to the
hoof and mouth outbreak at P100 million ($19 million).

PATIENCE WITH ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION WEARING THIN


5. (U) As job-growth slows in Botswana, the increasing
presence of illegal immigrants from Zimbabwe continues to
rankle. Officials of the Botswana Police Service and
Department of Immigration observed to Emboff that a
significant portion of their time and budget goes to
rounding up and deporting border jumpers. In March,
immigration authorities deported over 1,100 illegal
Zimbabwean immigrants. Recent meetings between MP Samson

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Moyo and his constituents in the northeastern region
elicited sharp criticism of the Government for failing to
protect citizens from cross-border criminals. Although he
is a ruling party MP, Moyo set the tone for these meetings
by condemning the Government's reluctance to stand up to
Harare and defend its interests. Conventional wisdom and
anecdotal evidence from law enforcement officials attribute
rising crime to desperate Zimbabweans (REF B).


6. (U) A sensational incident reported on April 28
suggests that officials in northeast Botswana are becoming
fed up with illegal immigration and its attendant ills. A
Member of Parliament in the area of Francistown reportedly
discovered a Zimbabwean illegal immigrant tied to a post
and abandoned at a village kgotla (town hall). When asked
about the man, a local law enforcement official reportedly
told the MP "these things (illegal immigrants) are causing
trouble". The MP turned the man over to the immigration
authorities but lamented to the press that an unfortunate
incident such as this one makes it difficult to deny other
allegations of brutality against illegal immigrants.


7. (C) Recent press reports quoted farmers along the
border with Zimbabwe complaining that the Botswana Defence
Force (BDF) patrols are ineffective against illegal
immigrants. They alleged that BDF patrols zoom by in their
trucks at the same time each day making it them easy to
avoid. Realizing the problem, about two months ago, BDF
Commander Lt. Gen. Fisher ordered a re-emphasis on foot
patrols along the border.

GOZ ARRESTS BOTSWANA JOURNALISTS


8. (C) In light of the high costs of illegal immigration
daily borne by Botswana, the GOB found the GOZ's recent
arrest of two Botswana journalists especially galling. On
April 30, a Botswana Television journalist and cameraman
were arrested in Zimbabwe for entering the country
illegally and working as journalists without the necessary
permits. They were released on bail on May 2 and are
expected to appear in court in Zimbabwe on May 23. In a
May 3 conversation with Emboffs, Ernest Mpofu, Permanent
Secretary for Political Affairs in the Office of the

SIPDIS
President, said that the GOZ made a mountain out of a
molehill, asserting that the GOB merely would have dropped
the journalists on the other side of the border in such a
situation. Given the volume of Zimbabweans entering
Botswana illegally, this over-reaction and the High
Commission's refusal to assist irked the GOB, he said.

FRUSTRATED WITH ZIMBABWE


9. (C) Mpofu prefaced his remarks with a summary of the
recent tensions between Botswana and Zimbabwe - including
allegations in the regional press that the GOB was in
cahoots with the US and UK to oust Mugabe and had allowed
the US to establish an airbase on its territory (REF A).
Although there has not been a recurrence of such
propaganda, these incidents left the GOB both distrustful
of the GOZ and wary of provoking its ire. Mpofu observed
that because Botswana was not "in the bush" with the
Zimbabwean freedom fighters to the same degree that South
Africans, Zambians, and others were, it is an easy target
for such unwarranted attacks. Consequently, the GOB feels
acute pressure to conform to its neighbors' expectations of
solidarity based on a history of struggle that Botswana
does not fully share.


10. (C) Following a spate of anti-Botswana propaganda in
the Zimbabwean press in 2003, the GOZ approached the GOB to
ask whether President Mogae could invite President Mugabe
for an unpublicized visit, Mpofu recounted. When the GOB
did so, however, the GOZ declined, much to the exasperation
of Botswana's MFA. Mpofu later learned that Zimbabwe's MFA
had never conveyed the invitation to Mugabe, implying that
this was some ploy to further sow discord in their
bilateral relationship. As a result of these bizarre
machinations, Mpofu said, President Mogae refused to renew
an invitation to Mugabe insisting that any visit to
Botswana must be at Mugabe's initiative.

GOZ'S SELF-IMPOSED ISOLATION


11. (C) When asked by Emboff his thoughts on how the US
could promote constructive change in Zimbabwe, Mpofu
indicated that the GOZ had purposely insulated itself from
positive influences. Mpofu recounted an incident "for your
ears only" in which the former President of Tanzania
Benjamin Mkapa had visited Botswana en route to Zimbabwe.
Suspecting that Mkapa was bearing an unwanted message from
the Commonwealth, he said, Harare told Mkapa not to come,
forcing him to extend his stay in Botswana by another day.

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12. (C) Further illustrating Harare's willingness to cut
itself off even from its neighbors, Mpofu lamented that
Zimbabwe had "shot itself in the foot" by assigning to
Gaborone late last year a High Commissioner who was
evidently indifferent toward Botswana. Citing the recent
incident in which two Botswana journalists were arrested in
Zimbabwe, Mpofu explained that the MFA had approached
Zimbabwean High Commissioner Mandigora to seek his
assistance in resolving the matter. Mandigora, however,
had declined to follow-up on the matter and delegated it to
a junior colleague. This incident confirmed to Mpofu the
GOZ's non-cooperative disposition toward Botswana.

KEEP MOGAE'S OUTBURST AGAINST SANCTIONS IN CONTEXT


13. (C) Emboffs queried Mpofu on President Mogae's
criticism of sanctions against Zimbabwe during a joint
press conference with visiting German President Horst
Kohler on April 12. President Mogae characterized these
measures as counter productive. Such a "hostile" approach,
he argued, made it impossible for the Mugabe regime to
engage in dialog and negotiation toward a positive change
there. Mpofu stressed that, before Kohler had arrived, the
GOB had requested that the Germans not publicly criticize
Zimbabwe during the trip in order not to create
difficulties for Botswana with its neighbors. Unlike
President Bush, who respected a similar request during his
visit in 2003, Kohler did not oblige. As a result, Mogae
was forced to choose between the disapproval of Botswana's
neighbors, for letting his criticisms of Mugabe go
unchallenged, and disapproval of the West, for speaking up
against sanctions. He chose to assuage his neighbors by
questioning the utility of sanctions.


14. (C) Mpofu was quick to remind us that, prior to this
incident, Botswana had "never" issued such statements and
only did so in April because the GOB felt the Germans had
forced their hand. Moreover, he said, during closed-door
SADC meetings, President Mogae has gone out of his way to
tell Mugabe that the region needs to see better governance
in Zimbabwe. Emboff stressed that Mogae need not have
criticized our limited sanctions in order to avert the
displeasure of its neighbors and urged that the GOB avoid
such statements in the future.

DESPITE FRUSTRATIONS, MUST RESPECT ZIMBABWE'S
"SENSITIVITIES"


15. (C) As much as the GOB is frustrated by the Mugabe
regime, it cannot ignore Zimbabwe's sensitivities. When
informed of Mission's plans to celebrate the twenty-fifth
anniversary of Voice of America at the IBB transmission
station in Selebi-Phikwe, Minister Merafhe reminded
Ambassador Canavan of the GOZ protests that the VOA
"beams hostile information into their country." Although
the GOB disapproves of many of the things taking place in
Zimbabwe, it "must maintain a functional, constructive
relationship with" the GOZ.

COMMENT


16. (C) If effectively implemented, the GOB's decision to
reinforce the security of its border with Zimbabwe on
account of the hoof and mouth outbreak will mark the first
time in the past few years that the GOB has taken
significant action to protect its national interests
against threats to it emanating from Zimbabwe. Given that
the GOZ has denied the presence of hoof and mouth on its
side of the border adjacent to the affected areas in
Botswana, such a decision could elicit accusations that it
was motivated by a desire to stem the influx of illegal
immigrants. As described by Merafhe and Mpofu, the
bilateral relationship is already characterized by
frustration and distrust. An attempt to tighten border
security could resurrect the kind of rancor seen last in
2003 surrounding the visit of President Bush.


17. (C) As the incident between President Mogae and German
President Kohler demonstrates, attempts to publicly put the
GOB on the spot regarding Zimbabwe are prone to back-fire.
Instead, Mission will continue to privately press upon it
the costs to Botswana and the region of tolerating Mugabe's
abuses.
CANAVAN