MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF US NATO

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USMISSION USNATO FOR AMB NULAND FROM AMBASSADOR MILOVANOVIC
STATE FOR EUR/RPM PDAS VOLKER AND EUR/SCE
DEFENSE FOR ISP-NATO POLICY

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TAGS: PREL PGOV NATO MK
SUBJECT: MACEDONIA: SCENESETTER FOR VISIT OF US NATO
DELEGATION

REF: STATE 32850

ATMOSPHERICS: THE POLITICAL CAMPAIGN THICKET


1. (SBU) Your visit comes as the government and opposition
are gearing up for this summer's parliamentary election, the
actual date of which has yet to be determined. Amid the
clamor of mutual recrimination and mudslinging of the
"pre-campaign," which already is underway, your visit is an
excellent opportunity to remind all parties of the importance
of free and fair elections to Macedonia's NATO membership
prospects. It also is a good opportunity to press the
government and opposition to stay focused on ensuring that
work continues on key NATO-related reforms, despite the
inevitable distractions of the political campaign and
regardless of which parties emerge to lead the next
government after the elections.

A SECURE AND STABLE COUNTRY IN NATO


2. (SBU) PM Buckovski understands that NATO members want
stable, secure contributing members in the Alliance. To that
end, he may emphasize the transition the government has made
from its early focus on security and stability, to a stronger
focus on the economy. Macedonia has made good progress on
defense reforms, contributes to alliance operations in
Afghanistan and Iraq, and has helped lower inter-ethnic
tensions through implementation of many of the reforms
required by the 2001 Framework Agreement. Buckovski recently
tapped Macedonia's Ambassador to the U.S. as the
newly-created National Coordinator for NATO Integration,
reporting to the Prime Minister, to begin when his tenure in
Washington ends this month. Despite good progress on meeting
MAP-related requirements, the government must address a
number of key MAP-related reform areas.

ELECTIONS -- KEY TEST OF MACEDONIA'S DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS


3. (SBU) PM Buckovski will tell you that the government is
fully committed to "zero tolerance for electoral fraud" and
may note that the State Electoral Commission, which
administers the overall election process, is now fully funded
and operational. In addition, the GOM has worked since last
year with OSCE experts to draft an electoral code that
addresses electoral system concerns raised by the
International Community following serious irregularities in
previous elections. The electoral code is in the
parliamentary review process, and the parliament is expected
to pass it by mid-March.


4. (SBU) Although OSCE found the government draft electoral
code acceptable, the main opposition party, VMRO-DPMNE,
objects to the government's proposal to staff with civil
servants the local election boards that administer the
elections. The party argues that the politicized nature of
the civil service guarantees a heightened potential for
fraud. The government is working on a compromise solution
that would allow party representatives to serve on the boards
in addition to the civil servants.


5. (U) President Crvenkovski kicked off on March 2 an
initiative to intensify outreach to the media, civil society,
religious communities, and political parties to highlight the
need for free and fair elections. I participated in a
two-hour session during which the President, the OSCE and
EUSR representatives, and I gave the media our views about
their role in the elections. We underscored our hope that
they would work to create a positive, constructive atmosphere
for political debate as campaigning gets underway, and would
highlight the critical importance of a free and fair process
for the country's NATO and EU membership prospects.

INDEPENDENT AND EFFICIENT JUDICIARY


6. (SBU) The parliament in December 2005 passed a package of
11 constitutional amendments strengthening the independence
and efficiency of the judiciary, which currently is one of

the least-trusted of all Macedonian government institutions.
The amendments curtail the role of parliament in selecting
judges, who will now be selected and dismissed by an
independent State Judicial Council. The parliament is
expected to pass bylaws to implement the amendments by June
2006, although the process could be delayed if the parties
involved cannot agree on the language for the bylaws.

CORRUPTION CONUNDRUM


7. (SBU/NF) Macedonia was ranked 104 of 159 countries in the
2005 Transparency International annual corruption perception
index (CPI) report. It dropped several places compared to
2004, although its overall score remained the same, at 2.7
out of a possible 10 (10 being least corrupt). Combating
corruption is one of the government,s toughest challenges.
Very few high-profile corruption cases have been successfully
prosecuted, with even fewer cases involving a significant
sentence as a sanction. PM Buckovski might mention during
your meeting that he is ready to create a National
Coordinator for Combating Organized Crime and Corruption, an
idea I urged him to consider several weeks ago, given the
general lack of cooperation and coordination between police,
prosecutors, and judges on corruption cases.


8. (SBU/NF) The government recognizes it must do more on the
corruption front to meet NATO and EU standards. According to
government data, in 2005 a total of only 37 persons were
convicted on corruption-related charges, 24 for abuse of
their official positions. According to some government
sources, the lack of an effective wiretapping law thwarts
more effective prosecution of corruption cases. In fact,
there is a lack of political will -- in the government and
the judiciary -- to tackle this problem effectively.

POLICE ACCOUNTABILITY, TRAFFICKING IN PERSONS


9. (SBU/NF) General rule of law weaknesses hamper
Macedonia,s ability to combat corruption, organized crime,
and trafficking in persons (TIP). The Ministry of
Interior,s Professional Standards Unit (PSU) has
investigated a number of allegations of police abuse, and has
sanctioned such abuse when it occurred. However, the PSU,s
record is inconsistent, and systems to ensure transparency in
the MOI are inadequate. Similarly, Macedonia,s fall from
Tier 1 to Tier 2 in the State Department,s annual
Trafficking in Persons report for 2005 reflected lack of
political commitment to combat aggressively lucrative
organized crime activities, as reflected in the GOM,s
continuing lack of a National Action Plan for combating TIP.
We have pressed the government to adopt an anti-TIP National
Action Plan by the time you arrive; government contacts tell
us it is possible that will happen by then.

ECONOMY -- AIMING FOR SUSTAINABLE GROWTH


10. (U) The government,s most significant economic
achievement has been maintining macroeconomic stability and
fiscal discipline. The economy has grown at a consistent
rate of 2 to 4 percent from 2002 to 2005. The government
budget deficit is low (-0.6% in 2005),inflation minimal
(0.5% in 2005),the currency is stable, and the level of
debt-to-GDP (40%) is manageable. Despite some marked
progress, however, both domestic and foreign business
investment is low, and GDP growth rate is not strong enough
to lower unemployment or the poverty rate significantly.
Macedonia ranks 57th in the Heritage Foundation,s 2005 Index
of Economic Freedom, closely behind A-3 partners Albania
(52nd) and Croatia (55th).


11. (U) The government has made significant economic reform
progress in a number of areas, including recent
implementation of a "one-stop shop" window that has reduced
the time required for registering a new business. However,
more needs to be done to create an economic climate that will
attract increased investment and bring official unemployment
figures down from over 30 percent. Essential remaining steps
include enforcing property and contract rights, and
completing privatization of the state-owned electricity

monopoly to bolster investor confidence in the country.

RELIGIOUS FREEDOM -- INTRA-CHURCH CLASH


12. (SBU) The dispute between the Serbian Orthodox Church
(SOC) and the Macedonian Orthodox Church (MOC) over which
should enjoy primacy among orthodox Christian believers in
Macedonia remains a challenge for the government. A
government commission is working on a draft law that would
make it possible for the SOC to register officially as a
religious group in Macedonia.


13. (SBU) The imprisonment last year of Jovan Vraniskovski, a
former MOC priest now recognized by the SOC as Bishop Jovan,
"for inciting religious hatred" was criticized by the
international community and many human rights NGOs. In a
decision announced this week, the Supreme Court reduced
Vraniskovski's sentence; we understand he might be released
as early as March 8. Even if released, however, Jovan is
likely to return to prison unless an appeals court reverses
his September 2005 conviction for embezzlement.

NEED FOR CRISIS MANAGEMENT CAPACITY


14. (SBU) To get the MOD out of direct involvement in
managing crisis management operations, the government created
the civilian-run Crisis Management Center (CMC) in 2005. The
CMC received an independent budget in January 2006, but
squabbles between the ethnic Albanian CMC Director and the
government over equitable representation in staffing the
center have prevented it from becoming fully operational. In
a region plagued by frequent floods and occasional
earthquakes, the country,s lack of effective crisis
management capacity is unacceptable.

CONSOLIDATING RULE OF LAW


15. (SBU) Ethnically mixed police patrols have access to all
communities in the country, including former "police no-go
zones." The police often get political buy-in for police
operations before undertaking them in ethnic Albanian
villages, especially when the operations involve small-scale
or petty crime, or criminal figures with no known political
ties. This pragmatic approach normally minimizes the need to
launch potentially violent operations that could spark
inter-ethnic violence.

STRONG PUBLIC SUPPORT


16. Public support for NATO is strong at 90 percent. There
is across-the-board support for NATO membership among the
ethnicities and the parties -- government and opposition.
Most of the major parties include a plank on NATO membership
in their platforms. The biggest challenge for the government
will be managing public expectations regarding the Riga
Summit. PM Buckovski recently was in Tirana for a meeting of
A-3 Prime Ministers, who reportedly agreed to push for a Riga
statement that would commit to enlargement in 2008. One
report from Tirana quoted Buckovski as saying "our motto will
be: NATO membership no later than 2008." Our refrain should
be: "focus on the work, not the dates."

TRAINING FOR NATO


17. The two largest NATO contributors of military assistance
to Macedonia are the United States and Turkey. Other NATO
countries give less assistance, mainly military education
programs. The USG provides military education training for
officer and NCO professional development (IMET),
English-language training, and bi-lateral training and
personnel exchange programs with the Vermont National Guard.
FMF funds the equipment and training necessary to support the
11 units Macedonia has declared for NATO operations.


18. Turkey provides well over a million dollars a year in
military equipment and training, focused mainly on equipping
Macedonia's logistical units and maintenance centers (with
vehicles and specialty equipment). Turkey also runs commando
training courses for the Special Force Unit. The Netherlands

provides assistance in developing the Ministry of Defense's
IT systems, and has sold the ARM surplus military vehicles
and equipment at discounted prices. The United Kingdom works
closely with the MOD on English language training (which
complements ours) and on personnel management. Norway has
been the principal consultant to the MOD on options for
reforming the Military Hospital, while Germany and France
offer officers and NCOs opportunities for attending combat
arms courses and senior service schools.
MILOVANOVIC