RAHMONOV'S ANNUAL SPEECH TO PARLIAMENT ELECTION-YEAR

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 000752

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR P, S/P, SCA/FO, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, INL, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON EAID EINV SOCI KCOR IR CH RS TI
SUBJECT: RAHMONOV'S ANNUAL SPEECH TO PARLIAMENT ELECTION-YEAR
PERFORMANCE; U.S. ASSISTANCE DRAWS SPONTANEOUS APPLAUSE

REF: OSC CEP20060422950111

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1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly.
Not for public Internet.


2. (SBU) SUMMARY: President Rahmonov's annual speech to the
nation, one of his longest in recent memory, was clearly a
populist election-year tract, but also a statesmanlike balancing
act that leaned, at times, toward reform, with an occasional
diatribe against corruption (officials hiding their wealth and
those who steal government funds intended for the
disadvantaged). Although the focus was mostly domestic, in
foreign policy it maintained a relatively even balance among
Russia, the United States, and China, with the United States
being the only major power to receive spontaneous applause from
the audience because of it's "no-strings-attached assistance for
Tajikistan." Iran received relatively short shrift as a
provider of economic assistance for major infrastructure
projects. The president's think-tank director views the speech
as a victory for reform and well-balanced international
relations. END SUMMARY.


3. (SBU) President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmonov delivered his
annual "state of the nation" speech to a joint session of
parliament April 20 (ref is full text in English). His cabinet,
chairmen of the various high courts, the diplomatic community,
and domestic and Russian press corps also attended, but
uniformed military commanders were noticeably absent. The
two-hour five-minute speech, coinciding with Tajikistan's 15th
year of independence, was a laundry list of social and economic
development highlights and high-minded visions for the future
(e.g., tripling per capita GDP by 2015 to $1,000),but with few
new concrete initiatives, save one about property amnesty
(below). All in all, it was a cautious, populist,
international-standard election-year speech. Although Rahmonov
frequently referred to the 15th anniversary of independence, and
gave a few passing nods to Kulob's 2,700th anniversary
celebration (already now several years late because of
corruption in the preparations),he did not once mention that
2006 is his declared 'Year of Aryan Culture," possibly because
of frequently voiced international disapprobation, especially by
Germany.


4. (SBU) This speech was probably Rahmonov's least
forward-leaning of the last three years - long on statistics and
platitudes, but relatively short on new proposals - possibly
because he's saving his big guns for later in this presidential
election year. In our analysis, there were two areas of special
interest. One was his offer of property amnesty, and the other
was his review of foreign relations.

PROPERTY AMNESTY PROPOSED


5. (U) Rahmonov is always most interesting when he goes
off-text and speaks his own mind. His prepared text had a
one-sentence proposal for a "property amnesty." His off-text
explanation was the longest, and apparently most heart-felt, of
his entire speech. He said, "People, the Civil War is over. We
need to know who owns what. We need to regularize and register
and declare all properties and begin to pay taxes. The purpose
is to reduce corruption in the future." Heatedly, he added,
"Honestly, it's shameful that some ministries have become
'family enterprises,' with ill-gotten wealth registered in the
names of family members while the ministers appear to be
paupers. This has to stop! Where's the transparency? The law
is for all! And the members of parliament must be the first to

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comply." He paused, glaring at his uneasy audience, and then
asked, "Don't you agree?" The audience dutifully but certainly
uneasily responded with applause. Not content, Rahmonov
continued his riff, "I mean, drive around town and look at all
the new mansions - they must be declared! If not, we will
confiscate these properties," he thundered.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: In fact, Rahmonov himself is responsible for
this current sorry condition - a country more ruled by
off-the-books corruption than by law, and one where his own
family and clan members receive many benefits and privileges.
He has achieved his consolidation of power and Tajikistan's
remarkable stability by in the past having sanctioned
rent-seeking as an expedient policy. In Summer 2005, the
Ambassador was present when Rahmonov gave Afghanistan's
President Hamid Karzai Dutch-uncle advice: "If you want
post-war stability, do as I did. Bring the warlords out of the
mountains, anchor them in the cities, and let them get rich."
To his credit, Rahmonov now realizes that it's time to turn the
ocean-liner of this expedient but ultimately destructive policy,
and we believe that multiple international interventions have
helped him see this. But the great irony, even hypocricy, is
that his own family, and certainly his Kulobi clan, may be one
of the greatest national violators. Nevertheless, to provide a
weak defense for him, we would note that during the last year,
his "Family Bank" and its aggressive acquisitions have had a
much lower profile than in the past. END COMMENT.

REGIONAL INFRASTRUCTURE INTEGRATION


7. (U) A very long section of the speech was Rahmonov's vision
for the rehabilitation and new extension of the regional
infrastructure, with Tajikistan as the epicenter - especially
transportation routes, both road and rail, hydro-energy, and, to
a lesser extent, telecommunications. Indeed, his vision
appeared lifted almost verbatim from Secretary Rice's
Infrastructure Integration Initiative for Greater Central Asia.

STOP STEALING FROM ORPHANS!


8. (U) In an extremely long central section of his speech,
Rahmonov ticked off his government's increasing attention to and
expenditures for the social sector. In a populist move, he
vowed beginning May 1 an increase of about $30 per month for
pensions of World War II veterans (still about 5,500 in the
country) and war widows. He noted already increased salaries
for teachers, doctors, and scholars. He said his government is
providing nearly $120 per month for each orphan and other youth
in state institutions. (NOTE: A surprisingly high government
commitment we cannot confirm, and that certainly isn't reflected
in the quality of the facilities. END NOTE.) Then, in his
second significant off-text departure, he said, "I challenge you
to visit an orphanage, as I do, and you will ask, 'Where does
the money go?' Look at the sorry state of these poor children,
and you will know that the managers are stealing the money."
Rahmonov thundered, "Stop this now, or you will suffer the same
fate as others who have neglected their charges!" (COMMENT:
This appears to be a reference to the officials now on trial for
dereliction of duty during the horrific Dushanbe Chorbog
Orphanage fire in January in which 17 special-needs children
perished. END COMMENT.)

FOREIGN RELATIONS: RUSSIA, THE UNITED STATES, CHINA, AND, UM,
THE OTHERS


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9. (U) Rahmonov opened the final section of his speech -
foreign policy - by acknowledging that although national
interests must always come first, it's totally normal that world
powers are competing for influence in Central Asia because of
their global interests. He listed three for special influence
and contributions.


10. (U) RUSSIA. First was Russia. He praised the "bilateral
strategic partnership that will continue to develop and even
accelerate." He expressed satisfaction that Tajik-Russian
cultural and scientific ties have finally begun to be restored.
He then said that economic cooperation is especially important,
noting the Tajikistan "expects $2.5 billion in Russian
investment."


11. (SBU) COMMENT: Considering Moscow's full-court press for
geo-strategic influence in Tajikistan since late 2004, this was
a surprisingly restrained assessment of the Tajik-Russian
bilateral relationship. Especially glaring was Rahmonov's
choice of words that Russian investment is "expected," rather
than promised or confirmed. We don't want to read too much into
this, but it almost seemed as if he was saying, "OK, comrades,
if you mean it, follow through." END COMMENT.


12. (U) THE UNITED STATES. Next came the United States.
Rahmonov said that one of Tajikistan's most important
achievements in the past year is "the expansion and further
development" of relations with the United States. He praised
the U.S.-Tajik partnership in combating terrorism and narcotics,
and U.S. support for border management that has led to greater
stability in Tajikistan and the entire region. Rahmonov once
again paid high tribute to the United States for "selflessly"
funding the Tajik-Afghan bridge over the Pyanzh River, to better
promote regional integration through the stability that comes
from prosperity. He explicitly said he is ready further to
consolidate relations with "all senior U.S. Government
officials." He noted that U.S. economic, development, and
humanitarian assistance 2003-2005 was nearly $200 million, "with
no strings attached." This elicited what appeared to be
spontaneous and sustained applause from the audience.


13. (SBU) COMMENT: At close of business the night before the
speech, Embassy Dushanbe received a frantic call from the
presidency asking for the total dollar amount of all forms of
assistance 2003-2005. We scrambled and came up with this
reasonably accurate ball-park figure, but suspect it may be
somewhat low, since we were unable accurately to calculate all
DOD assistance. END COMMENT.


14. (U) CHINA: Third in "the majors" was China. Rahmonov
noted that all border demarcation issues have been resolved, and
that economic ties are growing. He then focused on China's
increasing economic support for major infrastructure projects in
Tajikistan, especially for land transportation routes and
electricity lines.


15. (U) COMMENT: China came in like gangbusters at the end of
2005 with a flurry of high-level visits and pledges for $560
million investment in telecom, transport, and energy. However,
in recent weeks, as the two countries have tried to negotiate
the specific details, especially the interest rate of Chinese
investment, there have been hurdles, and the final signing has
stalled. END COMMENT


16. (U) THE OTHERS, LIKE IRAN: Rahmonov then rather

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perfunctorily ticked off other relations: the Shanghai
Cooperation Organization, the European Union ("would like closer
relations with Germany, France, and the United Kingdom"),the
Commonwealth of Independent States, the Eurasian Economic
Community, and the United Nations, "especially UNESCO."


17. (U) Only then did Rahmonov say, "Political will is needed
for better regional cooperation." At this point, he noted that
relations with Iran have "broadened and strengthened,"
especially with Tehran's financing of the Anzob Tunnel and the
Sangtunda-II hydro-electric station. Among other regional
players, Rahmonov said Afghanistan's "growing stability can mean
broader relations." From India he expects assistance in
advanced information technology and the energy infrastructure.
Finally noted that relations with Turkey "have been important
from the beginning and will grow." He then very briefly gave a
nod to Arab nations ("We expect greater investment,") East Asia,
and Euro-Atlantic institutions.


18. (U) In what appeared to be almost a perfunctory
after-thought, Rahmonov said that he values "constructive
relations" with international NGOs, but "they need to follow
their charters and our own laws."


19. (SBU) COMMENT: While chatting after the speech with Suhrob
Sharipov, the reformist Director of the President's Strategic
Research Center, which had produced the early drafts, the
Ambassador commented noncommittally that the speech had seemed
"well-balanced." Sharipov, looking exhausted but exhilarated,
replied, "You wouldn't believe how hard we fought against the
competing factions to keep it balanced, fair to all, and
positive. But in the end we won. Because he spoke it, it is
now policy." END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND