TAJIKISTAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR DRL ASSISTANT SECRETARY LOWENKRON FROM AMBASSADOR HOAGLAND
STATE ALSO FOR P, S/P, SCA/CEN, EUR/ACE

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM EAID KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
TRANSFORMATIONAL DIPLOMACY

REF: DUSHANBE 0283

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1. (U) Sensitive but unclassified. Please handle accordingly.
Not for public Internet.


2. (U) Dear Assistant Secretary Lowenkron: I would like to
solicit your help in advancing democracy in Tajikistan. See
request in para eight.


3. (U) Tajikistan's next presidential election will be in
November 2006. At Embassy Dushanbe, the Political and Public
Affairs Sections and USAID have developed a joint election
strategy (septel),"Reform from Above, Foster Interest Below."
Both parts are essential - the "above," and the "below." This
message focuses on one key element of the "above."


4. (U) Tajikistan's 2005 parliamentary election was a step
forward but did not meet international standards. Even though
the election was reasonably well conducted and the Tajik voters
took their civic duties quite seriously, even in the most remote
parts of the country, the OSCE/ODHIR Election Observers
Mission's final report enumerated many flaws which, in the
aggregate, prevented the election from meeting international
standards.


5. (SBU) However, we know Tajik officials of good will, at high
levels, who want to improve the next election. Although they do
not control the political environment facing any opposition
candidate, they are in a position to make significant
improvements to the electoral process, thus laying an important
foundation for future elections. To that end, the International
Foundation for Election Systems (IFES) in Dushanbe has already
been working intensively with the Central Commission for
Elections and Referenda (CCER) and the President's Strategic
Research Center (SRC) to identify what needs to be improved and
to achieve agreement from the government to make these
improvements.


6. (SBU) The government has already agreed in principle to
employ finger-inking to reduce the chances for multiple voting,
and - even more surprising - has agreed in principle to issue an
edict allowing non-partisan Tajik election observers (i.e.,
members of NGOs and civic organizations),even though the
current Presidential Election Law makes no provision for such
observers.


7. (SBU) Starting with the flaws listed in the 2005 OSCE/ODHIR
report, and using three key documents that set forth
expectations - the OSCE Copenhagen document, the CIS Convention
on Free and Democratic Elections, and the Election Law of the
Republic of Tajikistan - IFES, CCER, and SRC working together
have identified the following areas that are of concern and have
pledged to find solutions for each:

Proxy voting, family voting, multiple voting

Counting of ballots and adhering to protocol procedures

Interference by local officials and presence of uniformed police
officials

Low female and ethnic minority participation

Interference in the registration of candidates

Delaying or denying accreditation of observers

Voter registration

Use of pencils rather than pens for protocol reports

Paucity of CCER public meetings before the election

Manipulation and misuse of the mass media

Early voting, mobile voting, and absentee voting

Low level of civic education

Complaints and appeals processes


8. (SBU) IFES Washington will submit a proposal to the

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Department within the next two weeks to allow IFES Tajikistan to
continue this vital work. IFES Tajikistan's existing USAID
grant expires in September. [NOTE: This could not be an
extension of IFES' current USAID grant which is for civic
education but not/not elections. END NOTE.] Unless it receives
new funding for this election work, IFES will go into close-out
mode in June. We recognize that budgets are especially tight,
but we would ask that DRL, or some other element, fund this
proposal as soon as it is received. Without IFES' continued
engagement, this effort will fall by the wayside. The key
players who will set the tone and standards for the election are
on board for the moment, and we must cement their commitment to
a better electoral process. Working from the top down, we have
a chance to make a real difference.


9. (SBU) Politics is a dirty business anywhere in the world,
and especially dirty in CIS states. We have no illusion about
the November 2006 presidential election. The result is a
foregone conclusion. But we firmly believe by working closely
with the CCER and the influential SRC (which is increasingly
pro-reform) we have the opportunity to correct past electoral
problems and to establish as precedents practices that will
prove invaluable as democracy evolves in Tajikistan.
HOAGLAND