EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE BRIEFS ON MEETING WITH PRESIDENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 000502

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR EUR, SCA/CEN, DRL
NSC FOR MILLARD, MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON KDEM RS IR UZ AF TI
SUBJECT: EU SPECIAL REPRESENTATIVE BRIEFS ON MEETING WITH PRESIDENT
RAHMONOV

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: In a read-out of his just-concluded meeting
with President Rahmonov, EU Special Representative for Central
Asia Kubis said that a calm and confident Rahmonov undertook to
improve (to a degree) Tajik elections, reasserted his unreserved
willingness to support coalition efforts in the war on
terrorism, advocated strongly against any military action in
Iran, expressed great exasperation with Karimov's Uzbekistan,
and made clear his intention to balance his relations with large
powers. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) The Ambassador met for 90 minutes March 15 with EU
Special Representative for Central Asia Jan Kubis at the
invitation of French Ambassador Pierre Andrieu. France is the
contact embassy in Dushanbe for the EU.

FROM BASKET CASE TO ISLAND OF STABILITY AND GROWTH


3. (C) Kubis had just come from a nearly two-hour meeting with
President Rahmonov, who characterized Tajikistan as stable and
quiet, with good prospects for economic development. He listed
Tajikistan and Kazakhstan as the two most stable states in the
region, and Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan as the two poorest,
needing the most international assistance and investment. Kubis
told the Ambassador that, too, was his assessment, and marveled
at the turn-around Tajikistan has made in the last five years.

"ELECTIONS WILL BE BETTER, BUT~"


4. (C) Rahmonov brushed off a request for his evaluation of the
Tajik political scene looking toward the presidential election
at the end of the year, claiming he had too many other
priorities at this time to pay attention to politics this early
in the game. He did note, however, that he believes he has
genuine support throughout the country and will never "retire
from an airport," alluding to former Kyrgyz President Akayev's
escape to Moscow. Rahmonov also contrasted his solid support
within the country to President Karimov's in Uzbekistan where,
he said, only Moscow and Beijing are keeping Karimov afloat.


5. (C) Kubis said his message to Rahmonov on the presidential
election, building on Rahmonov's own evaluation, was that his
genuine support within Tajikistan gives him the opportunity to
conduct a presidential election that will come closer to
international standards - "We're looking for progress, not
perfection." Should Tajikistan show real progress in the next
election, it would gain increased respect and attention from the
West. Rahmonov responded that the elections would be better,
but wouldn't meet "you're your standards." He quipped, "If you
can call those recent laughable elections in Afghanistan
'democratic,' you won't have too much right to criticize Tajik
elections."

UNWAVERING SUPPORT FOR THE ANTI-TERRORIST COALITION


6. (C) According to Kubis, Rahmonov's described Afghanistan as
stabilizing but with a long way still to go. Rahmonov said
without any hesitation that Tajikistan "will continue to support
the anti-terrorist coalition and will cooperate fully." Kubis
said the question of a U.S. military base in Tajikistan to
replace Karshi-Khanabad did not come up explicitly, but he was

DUSHANBE 00000502 002 OF 003


convinced Rahmonov was sending a clear signal that he would be
open to considering such cooperation. (COMMENT: Rahmonov's
formulation is very close to the wording he used with Secretary
of Defense Rumsfeld in July 2005 and in October with Secretary
of State Rice. END COMMENT.)


7. (C) Continuing on Afghanistan, Rahmonov said he wants to
make a push for Afghanistan to join the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization (SCO) as a full member. That would give three
"small states" - Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Afghanistan - voices to
balance the three "big states" - Kazakhstan, and the dominant
powers Russia and China.

"DO NOT INVADE IRAN"


8. (C) Kubis reported Rahmonov said Tajikistan's relations with
Iran are stable. He admitted that Tajikistan had been leery of
President Amadinejad at first, but has not yet seen any evidence
that he is attempting to export his hard-line positions to
Tajikistan. Rahmonov added he is not at all happy with Iran's
nuclear ambitions, but he forcefully advocated against any
military action against Tehran. He told Kubis, "Iran is not a
house of cards like Iraq was. It is strong, relatively rich,
and the population is generally unified and nationalistic.
Further, with 10 million Iranians abroad, it has to be taken
into consideration how many of them would be radicalized by a
Western military assault on Iran."

"WHO CAN DO ANYTHING WITH UZBEKISTAN?"


9. (C) Rahmonov, said Kubis, went on at length, highly
criticizing Karimov's Uzbekistan. He evidenced great
exasperation that Tashkent is preventing regional integration.
He expressed guarded hope that Uzbekistan's recent accession to
the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) will mitigate some of
Karimov's recalcitrance in the region because on June 1
Uzbekistan will have to begin meeting EEC standards on demining
borders, visa regimes, and transportation links among members.
Rahmonov also said he hopes Uzbekistan joins the Collective
Security Treaty Organization because that would give Tajikistan
a legal-entity forum to insist that Karimov stop using exiled
Tajik Colonel Khudoberdiyev as a threat against Tajikistan. But
in the end, Rahmonov said, there's little hope for any
improvement so long as Karimov sits in Tashkent.

"WE AREN'T ANYONE'S PUPPETS"


10. (C) Speaking of Tajikistan vis-`-vis the major powers,
Rahmonov told Kubis, "We don't want to be puppets in anyone's
hands. We know some are playing with us, but we want to keep
all channels open. If we are treated honestly and with respect,
we will respond equally." Kubis commented to the Ambassador he
took this to mean that Rahmonov is reasonably cautious about
Russia's full-court press. The Ambassador said his message to
Rahmonov is that the U.S. does not play zero-sum games. We
recognize Russia's natural interests in the region. At the same
time, we want to ensure Tajikistan's sovereignty and
independence and that it not become a less-than-sovereign
satellite of any power. Kubis said that is exactly the same
message he gave Rahmonov.

CALMER ABOUT "COLOR REVOLUTIONS"


11. (C) Kubis commented he had last talked with Rahmonov Fall
2005 in Paris and had found him then somewhat obsessed with
"color revolutions." This meeting, Rahmonov was much more calm

DUSHANBE 00000502 003 OF 003


and self-confident. About "color revolutions," Rahmonov told
Kubis, "We have to be vigilant, of course, but we understand
they are caused mostly by economic issues."

TAJIKISTAN NEEDS A FULL EU MISSION


12. (C) The Ambassador commented he had recently seen an
excellent read-out of DAS Bryza's consultations with the EU, and
had been struck with the European comment that the EU is
"ham-strung" disbursing its considerable assistance in
Tajikistan by lack of personnel on the ground. He suggested to
Kubis it might be time for Brussels to consider establishing a
full mission in Dushanbe, given its assistance investment and
given Tajikistan's emerging status as an island of stability and
growth on Afghanistan's border. (NOTE: The EU currently has an
"office" of only four people in Dushanbe headed by a
working-level staffer. END NOTE.) Although his EU colleagues
looked a tad pained, Kubis said he thought that was an excellent
suggestion, and he would be glad to press it in Brussels,
especially since it would help support "the corridor of reform."
He invited the Ambassador to Brussels, at his convenience, to
brief on Tajikistan and the region.
HOAGLAND