TAJIKISTAN: IRPT LEADER CLOSELY WATCHED

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000408

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/2/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KISL KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: IRPT LEADER CLOSELY WATCHED

REF: DUSHANBE 151

CLASSIFIED BY: RICHARD HOAGLAND, AMBASSADOR, DUSHANBE,
TAJIKISTAN, DEPARTMENT OF STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) Muhiddin Kabiri, First Deputy Chairman of the Islamic
Renaissance Party (IRPT) will travel to the United States March
8 to deliver a speech at Columbia University on the state of
religion and politics in Tajikistan after the wave of "color
revolutions" in other post-Soviet countries. Kabiri told PolOff
February 27 the government disapproved of his trip to the United
States.


2. (C) When Kabiri notified Tajikistan's Parliamentary Speaker
of his impending absence, the Speaker questioned why Kabiri had
to attend the lecture in New York. Despite Kabiri's insistence
that he would go with or without the Speaker's permission, the
Speaker insisted he himself would consult with the President's
Office about Kabiri's trip. Austria's Ministry of Foreign
Affairs also invited Kabiri to speak in Vienna in March, and the
Speaker instructed Kabiri to attend Austria's conference instead
of the lecture at Columbia University. According to Kabiri, the
Tajik government suspects the United States is inviting
perceived opposition leaders, like himself, to come and engage
in discussions about possibly stirring up a "color revolution"
in Tajikistan. The President's Office ultimately consented to
Kabiri's travel, but when he returns from the United States he
will have to submit financial records and a report of his trip's
activities.


3. (C) During a recent Parliament session, Kabiri brought up
the problem of BBC's registration and advocated for more varied
media sources. Fellow parliamentarians chastised him for even
bringing up the issue and dismissed it simply as BBC's failure
to follow Tajik laws, the standard government line. In public
and private, government officials have accused Kabiri of being
an "agent of influence" for the West. Because of this
reputation, Kabiri says he has periodically made comments
criticizing U.S. foreign policy in the media to fend off
critics' attacks. In meetings with EmbOffs he often mentions
how he is always trying to stay out of jail, and out of trouble
with the government. He has also mentioned how he sees the IRPT
as a "loyal" opposition party.


4. (C) Kabiri told PolOff the Russian Ambassador Abdulatipov's
public statements supporting Rahmonov for re-election offended
him (reftel). Mostly, he was disappointed that his fellow
parliamentarians did not react. He posited that if a
representative of the United States made such a comment, it
would be seen as interference and many would be outraged.
Kabiri explained this attitude reflects a broader outlook in
Parliament. According to him, most Tajik officials view
Tajikistan as a protectorate of Russia with Rahmonov as a puppet
leader and Abdulatipov the General Governor of Tajikistan.
Recently, one parliamentarian was overheard commenting, "If
Rahmonov can't solve this problem for me, I will go to Putin."


5. (C) COMMENT: The government's attempts at marginalizing
the IRPT's Kabiri as an "Agent of the West" seem a bit ironic,
and out of step with global politics. Instead, the government
may fear the IRPT's genuine popularity-Kabiri is one of the few
politicians outside the President's party with a true base of
support. In the months leading to the Presidential election,
the government may step up it efforts to discredit and
marginalize Kabiri. To counter this, and save his image, he may
feel the need to increase his public comments against the West.
However, he is still a moderate Islamic leader who understands

DUSHANBE 00000408 002 OF 002


Western democratic values. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND