Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUSHANBE278
2006-02-11 06:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

TAJIKISTAN'S RECENT UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE HIGHLIGHTED BY

Tags:  SNAR PGOV TI 
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UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000278 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

SSTATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SNAR PGOV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S RECENT UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE HIGHLIGHTED BY
GOVERNMENT HYPE

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 000278

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

SSTATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: SNAR PGOV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S RECENT UPSURGE IN VIOLENCE HIGHLIGHTED BY
GOVERNMENT HYPE


1. (SBU) Since the beginning of the year, the local media have
reported a number of killings of government security officials.
The Tajik government often linked the murders to the Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). However, no credible links to the
IMU have been proven. Because of the reported up-tick in
violence, the Tajik government has increased the number of
border troops on alert and patrolling-law enforcement officials
throughout the country. Government sources tell Post's Senior
Law Enforcement Advisor (SLEA) that President Rahmonov has met
with security ministers three or four times since the beginning
of January.


2. (SBU) The press reported that members of the IMU attacked
the Kairakum prison in Sughd Oblast to release a fellow member
on January 25. In the process, a prison official was killed.
One of the attackers is reportedly the brother of the freed
inmate. Embassy sources said it is not certain the attackers
and inmates belong to the IMU, but may be simply involved in
criminal organizations. Border troops were sent to Sughd Oblast
to control Tajikistan's northern border with Kyrgyzstan and
search for the attackers, who may come from the Tajik border
town of Isfara.


3. (SBU) Another recent high-profile murder was of the Head of
the Military Institute, Hokimsho Hofizov, assassinated on
January 27. The press speculates that Oleg Kosolapov, a former
colleague of Colonel Mahmud Khudoberdiyev, was involved in the
murder. (NOTE: Khudoberdiyev, in the opposition during the
Tajik Civil War, is now exiled in Uzbekistan where he is widely
believed to be supported by Uzbek security forces. He was an
ally of Hofizov, until Hofizov turned against him and sided with
Tajikistan's ruling government. END NOTE.)


4. (SBU) In addition, a source from the Ministry of Interior
told SLEA that nine police officers have been killed in the line
of duty so far this year. The number includes border guards,
officers killed by landmines, and officers killed in firefights
with drug traffickers. Two law-enforcement officials were
recently murdered in Khorog. The majority of reported incidents
occurred along the Tajik-Afghan border.


5. (SBU) COMMENT: The recent crimes may be the result of
internal government strife, corruption, drug-related disputes,
or IMU or other extremists' attacks - the kind of unfortunately
normal criminal-political violence that occurs in any country
like Tajikistan. The Tajik government may be blaming the
violence on the IMU as a way to divert attention from internal
issues. But it is important to note that this is a low level of
violence for any country. In a presidential election year, the
emphasis on publicizing security problems could possibly be a
government desire to show the people that Tajikistan is not yet
completely secure and the need exists for continuity at the top
to ensure stability. Post considers the overall political
situation in Tajikistan to be extremely stable. Regardless of
which theory eventually proves true, none of the violence is
directed towards Western or, specifically, American interests.
END COMMENT.

HOAGLAND