Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUSHANBE272
2006-02-10 05:31:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

TAJIKISTAN: MURKY BUSINESS AND GEO-POLITICS

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR ECON EINV ENRG SNAR RS TI 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2195
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHDBU #0272/01 0410531
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 100531Z FEB 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 6665
INFO RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/DEPT OF JUSTICE WASHINGTON DC
RUCPDOC/DEPT OF COMMERCE WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1362
RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING PRIORITY 1399
RUEHRL/AMEMBASSY BERLIN PRIORITY 1399
RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD PRIORITY 1337
RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL PRIORITY 1279
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 1367
RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI PRIORITY 1311
RUEHFR/AMEMBASSY PARIS PRIORITY 1266
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 1162
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RHMFISS/HQ USSOCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 1416
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0938
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1453
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS 0738
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 7769
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000272 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, EUR, E, EB, INL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON EINV ENRG SNAR RS TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: MURKY BUSINESS AND GEO-POLITICS

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 000272

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, EUR, E, EB, INL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ECON EINV ENRG SNAR RS TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: MURKY BUSINESS AND GEO-POLITICS

CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: In two meetings with U.S. businessmen on
February 9, a reliable CEO passed along the rumor that the
largest cell-phone and Internet company in Tajikistan,
Babilon-T, is founded on drug money and may sooner or later be
bought by Moscow's Sistema-MTS. A less reliable U.S.
interlocutor asserted that Tajikistan knows that Russia/RusAl is
jerking it around with the promise to build Rogun Dam and
Hydroelectric Station. He says Tajikistan is wide open to U.S.
leadership to build Rogun. END SUMMARY.

POTENTIAL MONEY LAUNDERING?


2. (SBU) The Ambassador met on February 9 with long-standing
friend of the Embassy, Richard Seney (please protect),President
and CEO of Alexandria-based MTC Corporation, which is the parent
company of Indigo Cellular in Tajikistan, a joint venture with
the Aga Khan Group. Seney is a credible interlocutor. MTC is
also heavily invested in Afghanistan and elsewhere in Central
Asia.


3. (C) Seney reported an "explosion" of cell-phone use in
Tajikistan, with his company registering an increase during the
past five months from 5M minutes to 25M minutes. His
explanation: "The cell-phone culture is catching on." He said
his company feels secure because its largest volume of business
is in Khujand and surrounding Sogdh Oblast, where it is
autonomous from the Indigo leadership in Dushanbe, where it
could be subject to political whim. Even so, Seney remains a
tad uneasy because his major partner in Sogdh is Governor Qosim
Qosimov's brother, and the Qosimov's dominant position in Sogdh
is subject to Dushanbe's political winds.


4. (C) Seney reported that the biggest cell-phone company in
Tajikistan is Babilon-T (NOTE: The Embassy's Internet provider.

END NOTE). Babilon-T's real ownership remains shrouded in
mystery. The minority shareholder is believed to be "security
agencies" in Tajikistan. The majority owners are extremely
closely held, but rumored to be big drug money. According to
Seney, there is clear evidence that Babilon-T's business
leadership is positioning the company to sell it, by ineptly
driving up the number of users, which is not the true value of a
cellular company - minute-usage is the true value. Sistema-MTS
from Moscow has long been in talks with Babilon-T, but has not
yet reached an agreement, although in the end is expected to
conclude the deal, because Tajikistan is the only place in
Central Asia (apart from Kazakhstan) where Sistema does not
have a footprint. Seney agreed with the Ambassador that a sale
of Babilon-T, if the rumors are true, would be tantamount to
major drug money laundering.

"TAJIKISTAN KNOWS RUSSIA IS JERKING IT AROUND ON HYDRO"


5. (SBU) The Ambassador met on February 9 with EurasiaLink's
(also Superior Engineering-American Hydro) Rudolph Rubiner
(please protect),who has a TDA-funded feasibility study on the
table with the Ministry of Energy for the Varzob and Karakum
Cascades hydroelectric projects.


6. (C) We do not consider Rubiner a fully credible
interlocutor, and so report the following for what it is worth.

DUSHANBE 00000272 002 OF 002




7. (C) Rubiner first presented himself as already having the
contract to build the Varzob and Karakum projects. When
challenged on this, he became defensive and agitated, and then
suggested what he really has is agreement-in-principle for EBRD
to finance the project and, thus, will surely win the final
contract because he is so close to the Energy Minister.


8. (C) A former Soviet citizen at ease operating in this
environment, Rubiner has been spending a lot of "quality time"
with Energy Minister Nurmahmadov at his dacha's sauna and in
other social settings. Rubiner claims that Nurmahmadov, and
thus President Rahmonov, are convinced that Russia/RusAl will
never build Rogun Dam and Hydro-electric station, even though
Russia keeps telling the West, "Hands off Rogun." They are
especially dyspeptic that RusAl's Deripaska is now playing
footsie with the Uzbeks, including with First Daughter Gulnora
Karimova.


9. (C) According to Rubiner, the top-level Tajik view is that
Putin threw in the promise on Rogun, via RusAl, at the October
14, 2004, summit in Dushanbe as a honey-trap to ensure that
Moscow would get permanent status for its military base in
Tajikistan and to build political capital. (NOTE: It is worth
remembering that Deripaska's appearance at the October 14 summit
was a surprise for all, even for most in the Russian delegation,
as suggested by "Kommersant" articles and then-Russian
Ambassador Maksim Peshkov. END NOTE.) According to Rubiner,
all the hoopla that RusAl keeps slinging around in Tajikistan -
pop-star concerts, billboards, relatively minor philanthropy -
may be little more than eyewash to keep the Tajiks dangling for
geo-political purposes.


10. (C) Rubiner asserted that Nurmahmadov and other senior
Tajiks are desperate for U.S. leadership in the International
Financial Institutions to take the lead on Rogun. "If you do
that, Tajikistan will do anything you want," Rubiner insisted
Nurmahmadov said. Rubiner pressed the Ambassador to spend the
evening in Nurmahmadov's sauna. The Ambassador countered that
he would be pleased to meet Nurmahmadov at any time in the
Energy Minister's office.


11. (C) When asked if the business climate in Tajikistan has
changed in the five years he has been involved here, Rubiner
hesitated, then responded, "There's more money, but it's still
Communist, or authoritarian - same thing. The President and his
team control everything. It's all insider dealing. A deputy
minister of energy just got the main factory for repairing city
transformers, so he can profit from all the government
contracts."


12. (C) COMMENT: This alleged Tajik understanding about
Russia's intentions, or non-intentions, about Rogun does not
indicate what they think about Deripaska's interest in the TadAZ
aluminum plant, which is supposedly linked to the Rogun project.
We know that the main business-political contact for Deripaska
is Orien Bank's Chairman, First Brother-in-Law Hasan Sadullayev,
but we know almost nothing about their business dealings. We
occasionally hear rumors that the top Tajiks know that Deripaska
is playing games with TadAZ, and that they are ever more leery
of him since he allegedly accepted Uzbek President Karimov's
complaint that TadAZ is polluting Uzbekistan. Whatever the
truth, foreign businesses need a rather strong stomach to
operate successfully here, or need a strong backbone of
international transparency and rectitude, like Seney's MTC. END
COMMENT.
HOAGLAND