TAJIK ELECTION NUMBERS SHOW SURPRISING REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 002050

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/9/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK ELECTION NUMBERS SHOW SURPRISING REGIONAL DIFFERENCES

CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dushanbe, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (SBU) SUMMARY: Rahmonov's re-election to a third term
November 6 indicates his genuine popularity among Tajiks and
reflects the people's recognition that Rahmonov's years as
president have coincided with a period of relative stability in
the country. Many in fact were surprised Rahmonov did not win
by an even larger majority and some are already speculating that
the government ordered the official figures to be decreased.
Voting tallies in various regions show surprising variations.
Regions that previously did not support Rahmonov turned out in
force to re-elect him. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) During election day November 6, one resident in Garm
emphatically noted to EmbOff a sentiment shared by many in
Tajikistan, "This is a vote for peace, not for Rahmonov." The
people of Tajikistan, with vivid civil war memories, greatly
cherish stability and security, which they associate with
Rahmonov's term in office. Some voters noted that even if a
legitimate opposition candidate ran, they would still vote for
Rahmonov for stability's sake. The Party of Economic Reforms
picked up the second greatest number of votes with 6.2 percent,
although far behind Rahmonov. The party's showing signals the
Tajik people's second priority - the need for economic reform.
In the ninth-poorest country in the world, where high
unemployment forces hundred of thousands abroad for work,
economic development is a priority for the people. Rahmonov
also made economic growth a campaign promise.

REVISING THE NUMBERS- DOWN?


3. (C) Based on EmbOff observers' sampling throughout
Tajikistan, Rahmonov's popularity at various polling stations
extended well beyond the 79.3 percent the Central Commission on
Elections and Referenda announced he won. At some stations he
won nearly 100% of the vote. Speculation is already rampant
among international observers and analysts that Rahmonov's lower
than expected 79.3 percent was falsified downward. After facing
strong allegations from international organization for fixing
his unbelievable 96 percent win in 1999, and encouraged to hold
a free and fair election this time around, the administration
may have been concerned about assuaging international observers'
concerns. The MFA's Ismatulo Nasredinov, Head of the Department
of European and American States remarked to Pol/Econ Chief that
the winning total was incredibly low, compared to other years.
"I cannot believe so many people support other candidates!" he
marveled. The 79.6 percent showing was close to the 80 percent
predicted in some pre-election opinion polls.


4. (C) Tajikistan's election law required each candidate to
obtain signatures from at least five percent of registered
voters in order to secure his nomination. Since Rahmonov faced
four challengers, they nominally would have collected nominating
signatures from 20 percent of the voters. If Rahmonov had won
more than 80 percent of the vote, it would have looked
suspicious and implied the signatures collected were falsified.
Opposition political parties and observers have alleged that
this is indeed the case. Iskandarov's Democratic Party of
Tajikistan's deputy chairman showed PolOff signatures that were
intended for the Democratic Party's rival Vatan faction. The
misaddressed envelope included pages of voters' signatures
supporting a presidential candidate, but no candidate's name or
party affiliation appeared on any of the pages. They simply
were pre-signed petitions, ready for any candidate.


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SURPRISING REGIONAL DIFFERENCES


5. (SBU) Rahmonov's popularity reaches throughout the country.
Initial results from the regions showed surprising differences
that may indicate a change in attitude towards the present
administration. According to official statistics voter turnout
was highest in Gorno-Badakshan, reaching over 95 percent; 88
percent of voters there supported Rahmonov, the highest in the
country. Remote Gorno-Badakshan is home to the Pamiri ethnic
group, an strong component of the opposition during the civil
war. With high unemployment, and a strong separate Pamiri
identity distinct from Tajiks, conventional wisdom would have
predicted that Pamiris would vote otherwise. High government
subsidies to the region could explain its allegiance to the
central government.


6. (SBU) The number of supporters for Rahmonov in the northern
Sughd region (79.4) was higher than in the Rahmonov's native
southern region of Khatlon (77.6). Embassy sources say Central
Commission for Elections and Referenda officials in Sughd
revealed they received instructions to lower the numbers,
inferring that even more people had in fact voted for Rahmonov.
Given the region's history, the high level of support for
Rahmonov reflected in official numbers is surprising. The Sughd
region includes the populous Ferghana Valley and has seen
comparably high levels of extremist and terrorist violence.
Many Hizb ut-Tahrir and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan arrests
occur in Sughd. Islam is more closely revered in Sughd than the
rest of the country. Sughd's high support for Rahmonov bucked
the region's past rivalry with southern Tajikistan. Prior to
Rahmonov, Tajik leaders typically hailed from the north where
Khujand (formerly Leninabad) was the former seat of real power.
There is resentment among northerners towards the southern
clans that have usurped that power. Sughd region locals also
see themselves as the intellectuals of the country, whereas they
often consider southerners simple country bumpkins. (Note: For
example, northerners sometimes point out derisively that
Rahmonov was the head of a cotton farm collective before
becoming president and has nine children.) With Sughd's
relatively higher level of economic development, Sughd officials
often view themselves as more entrepreneurial than the rest of
the nation and complain that Dushanbe and the south enjoy more
funds and economic assistance than the north. (Note: During the
Soviet period, investment trends were the opposite.)


7. (SBU) In Khatlon, Tajikistan's southern region bordering
Afghanistan where the president's hometown of Danghara is
located, the president's popularity totaled only 77.6 percent,
the lowest of all the districts. EmbOffs visited some polling
stations where Communist Party candidate Talbakov appeared to be
more popular than Rahmonov. In one town outside of Moskovsky, a
cotton farmer told EmbOff that the majority of farmers on his
cotton farm would vote for the Communist Party. This reflected
the economic woes many Tajik cotton farmers face. During the
Soviet times with government subsidies, farmers were better off
financially than they are now. Now, saddled with debt, they
face a dilapidated infrastructure and a bleak economic future as
cotton farms fail to fulfill production quotas year after year.
Embassy sources say that although the south appears to be a
presidential stronghold on paper, in actual fact, it may not be.


8. (U) Campaigning for Rahmonov was heavy in Kulob with
campaign "agitators" going door to door to encourage voters to
come out and cast their ballot for the incumbent president.
EmbOffs also saw a group of 20-30 women parading down the
streets with tambourines, singing and dancing, proud to vote for
Rahmonov and proud to be able to vote at all.


9. (U) The consistent mood across many regions was generally

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festive and cheerful. The Tajik people were proud to exercise
their democratic right to vote. Many were "so happy to vote,
they voted two and three times," relayed Embassy local staff.


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Whether or not Rahmonov's administration
rigged the votes downward, the numbers still show his popularity
across the board. Voters' high turnout and heartfelt enthusiasm
are a promising sign that democracy is indeed appreciated and
welcomed in Tajikistan, even when the election is more theater
than competition. END COMMENT.
JACOBSON