RAHMONOV WINS TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 79.3 PERCENT

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 002038

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SUBJECT: RAHMONOV WINS TAJIK PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WITH 79.3 PERCENT

REF: DUSHANBE 2033


1. (U) SUMMARY: President Rahmonov won a third term with 79.3
percent of the vote, according to preliminary results. Embassy
observers deployed throughout Tajikistan witnessed the gamut of
election practices from completely transparent tabulation
processes to blatant ballot stuffing by commission officials.
The Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have presented
differing preliminary statements and will issue full-length
reports in the coming weeks. Those official reports should
serve as reminders that work towards democratic institution
building must continue immediately, rather than waiting for the
next election. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) President Rahmonov won the Tajik presidential election
November 6 with 79.3 percent of the vote, according to the
Central Commission for Elections and Referenda (CCER). Although
79.3 percent is an overwhelming majority, this represents a
drastic decrease from his 96 percent landslide in 1999. Olimjon
Boboyev, Party of Economic Reforms, received 6.2 percent of the
vote, Amir Qaraqulov, Agrarian Party of Tajikistan, 5.3
percent, Ismoil Talbakov, Communist Party, 5.1 percent and
Abduhalim Ghafforov, Socialist Party, 2.8 percent. Some
speculate the government distorted the results to give the
appearance of pluralism and democracy.


3. (U) The CCER reported a 91 percent voter turnout with over
three million eligible people voting. Embassy observers
remarked that many voters appeared proud and enthusiastic to
exercise their right to vote. Some precincts even genuinely had
100% voter turnout. Voting in Tajikistan can be a community
event, also evident by the festive atmosphere of music, dancing
and food at some polling stations.


EMBASSY STAFF OBSERVE VARYING POLLING PRACTICES


4. (U) Embassy observers deployed throughout Tajikistan, in
coordination with the OSCE observers. In addition to embassy
staff's observations reported in reftel, EmbOffs experiences
varied widely. Despite remaining problems, both embassy and
other international observers agreed that overall, the
technical, organizational and procedural aspects of the election
improved on past elections. Voters commented to Embassy
observers that U.S.-funded IFES television and radio spots
taught them how to vote correctly. At some precinct and
district election commissions, the voting was completely
transparent and observers were allowed to closely watch the
entire process. These same precincts also followed rules and
regulations explicitly during tabulation. More women were seen
voting in certain regions in this year's presidential election
than last year's parliamentary election. This may have been a
sign of women feeling more empowered, or possibly because many
men were abroad working as labor migrants, so the ratio was
skewed. Across the board, women voters were out in large
numbers and a range of age groups also turned out to vote.


5. (SBU) Soviet mentality and cultural nuances still impeded
the election. Observers saw many examples of improper practices
such as family voting and proxy voting, as well as classic
ballot box stuffing. Embassy staff reported that some district
election commissions would not permit international observers
watch the vote counting process. In addition, some observers
suspected district election commissions changed reported voting
numbers on the protocols after the individual precincts
delivered their totals. Embassy observers also noted that at
some polling stations in regions such as Kulob, Ministry of
Interior or Ministry of Security officials were present and took
down the names of observers for "security purposes." In some
areas, Ministry of Security officials had spoken to polling

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commission workers prior to election day.

TAJIKS VOTE IN RUSSIA


6. (U) U.S. Embassy Moscow PolOff met with Tajik Embassy
Political Officer Zohir Saidov in Moscow and observed polling
station activities. Some estimates put Tajikistan's number of
labor migrants as high as one million working in former Soviet
Union countries, mainly in Russia. Saidov noted that up to
8,000 Tajiks were expected to vote in the eight stations across
Russia with 3,500 expected to vote in Moscow. Embassy Moscow
PolOff observed that all of the voters were men. According to
Saidov, men were transported from the environs to the polling
station in order to vote. Only one truck brought women to vote.


CIS AND OSCE- DIFFERING VIEWPOINTS ON THE ELECTION


7. (U) The Commonwealth of Independent States Observation
Mission and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in
Europe issued opposing statements on the Tajik election. The
predictably forgiving CIS mission, as expected, declared that
the election was fair, democratic and transparent. CIS
observers noted that several technical mistakes occurred during
the voting process, however, the mistakes were minor and did not
influence the outcome of the election. The mission announced
that this presidential election was an improvement over previous
elections.


8. (U) On the other hand, the OSCE's preliminary report sent a
strong message. "The lack of any serious campaign and credible
alternatives undermined this election to a degree that it did
not provide an adequate test of Tajikistan's commitment for
democratic elections," said the Head of the OSCE Parliamentary
Assembly Delegation. In addition, the organization criticized
the state- controlled media, high level of family and proxy
voting, the use of negative voting (meaning voters had to cross
off the four candidates they didn't choose),the reliance of
candidates on state-funded campaigns and the questionable number
of signatures (165,000 each) candidates collected in order to
run in the election. The OSCE also recommended Tajikistan
improve its legal framework and implement previously recommended
OSCE/ODIHR changes in order to conduct democratic elections.


9. (U) Under a previously arranged gentleman's agreement,
neither mission commented on the other's findings, however the
OSCE did note that all CIS countries are also OSCE members. The
OSCE's criteria should also be Tajikistan's standards because
Tajikistan is a member state. Anticipating the OSCE's comments,
Rahmonov said yesterday that Tajikistan is working to meet OSCE
standards. "As for OSCE standards~ we are developing; we have
started the process [of meeting them]. Of course this is not
without problems~ However, there have been some results over
these 15 years." He also noted, "Tajikistan is a country where
more than 99 percent of the population is Muslim. We have a
different culture, and this has to be taken into account,"
Rahmonov said, and then criticized Western nations for double
standards on democratization.


DEMOCRACY NEEDS TO START BEFORE ELECTION DAY


10. (SBU) COMMENT: Although there may have been improvements
from previous elections, democratic reform is an ongoing process
and should have started well before election day. The election
was not indicative of the real state of democracy in Tajikistan.
In the years leading up to the election, the government managed
to weaken opposition parties, stifle media and limit freedom of
speech. With relatively unknown candidates challenging Rahmonov
on the election ballot, and openly praising him during their

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"campaign speeches," the people had little real choice. The
true test of democratic progress in Tajikistan will be how the
government moves forward after inauguration day November 18.
Who will Rahmonov replace in his new cabinet? Will the
government pass the controversial law on religion and law on NGO
activity which restrict freedom of religion and civil society?
The United States and international community must continue to
work to strengthen democratic institutions in Tajikistan. END
COMMENT.
JACOBSON