ONE WEEK OUT: RAHMONOV'S PR CAMPAIGN STRENGTHENS, DPT DRAMA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001998

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: ONE WEEK OUT: RAHMONOV'S PR CAMPAIGN STRENGTHENS, DPT DRAMA
ESCALATES

REF: A) DUSHANBE 1773 B) DUSHANBE 1848 C) DUSHANBE 1863 D) DUSHANBE 1931 E) DUSHANBE 1935

CLASSIFIED BY: TJACOBSON, AMBASSADOR, STATE, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: With six days to go before the election, the
pocket party candidates have hit the campaign trail and look
more like public relations agents campaigning for Rahmonov than
candidates in their own right. The Democratic Party of
Tajikistan's (DPT) drama continues with the remnant DPT trying
to ratchet up their profile by appealing to the OSCE and
international community to intervene in the party's split; while
the Vatan faction faces internal rifts of its own. The
Commonwealth of Independent States mission has already hit the
press and declared no serious violations have been committed so
far. END SUMMARY.

CANDIDATES HIT THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL TOGETHER


2. (SBU) The four candidates running against incumbent
President Rahmonov are traveling throughout Tajikistan together
to deliver their stump speeches and spread their platform
messages. However, thus far, it appears as if their campaign
trail is actually helping Rahmonov. Media reports have quoted
candidates plugging Rahmonov, unwilling to publicly criticize
him and unable to promote themselves as better leaders. A
presidential representative traveled with the candidates.


3. (U) Socialist Party of Tajikistan (SPT) candidate Abdulahim
Ghafforov admitted that it is not easy for him to be "a great
person of the nation, as is Rahmonov." The Communist Party of
Tajikistan's candidate, Ismoil Talbakov said, "Emomali Rahmonov
has done much for the people and he has his place in our
history."


4. (SBU) The weak campaign messages of the Party of Economic
Reforms of Tajikistan, Agrarian Party of Tajikistan, Socialist
Party of Tajikistan and the Communist Party and their
candidates' inability to distinguish themselves and criticize
Rahmonov's actions and policies actually help make Rahmonov look
like the best candidate.

THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY BATTLE- NO ONE WINS


5. (C) . With the government's support, the Ministry of Justice
and the Central Commission on Elections and Referenda have now
recognized the breakaway Vatan faction as the official
Democratic Party of Tajikistan (see Ref C and previous). The
Ministry of Justice now considers the case closed and has left
it to the Supreme Court to decide any appeals from the original
DPT.


6. (C) OSCE Political Officer informed PolOff the original DPT
faction, headed by imprisoned chairman Mahmmadruzzi Iskandarov,
wrote a letter to the OSCE mission desperately requesting the
OSCE "not to stay impartial" in the DPT rift. The party
reminded the OSCE that the organization's position in the
conflict between Russia and Georgia "added value to the OSCE
prestige in the international scene." The organization is
deliberating on its response. Although the court case is
ongoing, the DPT is impatient and does not have confidence the
heavily politicized Tajik courts will rule in Iskandarov's
supporters' favor. By seeking OSCE support, the party is
attempting to raise its profile to the international arena. The
local OSCE mission's political officer has advised headquarters
that this is an internal manner that has not been fully
exhausted legally and to refrain from becoming involved at the
present.


7. (C) To complicate things even more, Masud Sobirov, Chairman
of the breakaway Vatan faction of the DPT, admitted to Embassy

DUSHANBE 00001998 002 OF 002


sources that the faction itself is facing an internal rift.
Sobirov and Vatan's First Deputy Chairman, S. Ismonov, who
supported the party financially, are now vying for power. In a
bizarre twist, Sobirov sabotaged his own party's chances of
running a candidate during the presidential election. He
alleged the government helped gather the required 165,000
signatures so that the party could run Tabarali Ziyoev as its
presidential candidate. Upon receiving the petitions, he burned
them. He explained that he did this because he did not deem
Ziyoev a worthy candidate for president.

CIS OBSERVATION MISSION GETS A HEAD START


8. (U) The 200-plus strong Commonwealth of Independent States
election observation mission has already made press statements
declaring that it has seen no serious violations in election
procedure thus far. The OSCE/ODIHR has made some preliminary
remarks to the press, but has refrained from drawing
conclusions. They will issue an interim report immediately
following the election. OSCE/ODIHR will conduct observer
training November 3 for all observers, including 23 embassy
observers. Post will deploy embassy observers throughout the
country November 4-7 to observe and report on voting practices.



9. (C) COMMENT: Although the election results are a foregone
conclusion, the process still needs to be monitored. The
Democratic Party of Tajikistan's drama will last through the
election and the court's decision post-election will be
indicative of how tightly Rahmonov will hold onto power in his
third term. Another sign will be how the administration reacts
to the international observers' reports. Judging from its
pre-election myopia, the CIS report will be much more favorable
than the ODIHR mission's report. END COMMENT.
JACOBSON