TAJIK PRESIDENT TELLS BOUCHER ELECTION SHOULD MEET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001841

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STATE FOR SCA/CEN
NSC FOR MERKEL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/7/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EAID EINV ENRG TI
SUBJECT: TAJIK PRESIDENT TELLS BOUCHER ELECTION SHOULD MEET
INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS

CLASSIFIED BY: TJACOBSON, AMBASSADOR, STATE, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: In a two-hour meeting with Assistant
Secretary Richard Boucher October 6, Tajikistan's President

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Emomali Rahmonov stressed the positive bilateral relationship
with the United States. Stating he wanted to deepen contacts at
every level, Rahmonov thanked the United States particularly for
its assistance in counter-narcotics and counterterrorism.
Rahmonov expressed grave concern over Afghanistan and said the
United States must continue to be engaged in bringing peace to
the region. He reported he had given strong instructions to his
administration and local officials that the November 6
presidential election be conducted according to international
standards. Uzbekistan continued to be a troublesome neighbor.
Boucher thanked Rahmonov for his cooperation on border security
issues, and encouraged Tajikistan to conduct an election that
would represent a step forward in building a democratic future.
Accusing Russia, Iran and Uzbekistan of interference, the
situation in Georgia is very much on Rahmonov's mind. END
SUMMARY.

COUNTERNARCOTICS


2. (C) Rahmonov's prepared remarks began with appreciation for
U.S assistance in counter-narcotics and counter-terrorism and
desire to continue the cooperation, noting that "someday we will
be successful." Boucher praised the efforts of the Tajik Border
Guards and the Drug Control Agency, and commended them for their
increased seizures and interdictions. He pledged continued U.S.
support and noted Embassy Dushanbe staff had grown to cover
increased assistance. Rahmonov observed the withdrawal of the
Russian border troops in June 2005 had not been easy - "They
took everything! Every last spoon!" -- but many Tajik agencies
now cooperated on seizures, including the Interior Ministry,
Customs, the Border Guards and the Drug Control Agency.
However, Rahmonov said the key to regional counter-narcotics
efforts was eradicating the crops in Afghanistan.

ENERGY


3. (C) Rahmonov remarked U.S investment could play an
important role in "modernizing" Tajikistan's economic
structures, particular in the energy sector. He suggested the
United States encourage transmission lines to connect Central
Asia to South Asia and noted his own efforts at creating a
regional energy consortium. Clearly demonstrating increasing
concern over perceived lagging by AES on project implementation,
Rahmonov said "We need to speed things up and move from talk to
concrete action." The Tajik Ministry of Energy will host a
"Central Asia and South Asia Electricity Trade" conference in
Dushanbe October 26-28 which will provide further opportunity to
realize regional plans. Boucher noted he had appointed Robert
Deutsch to focus specifically on regional integration issues and
he would participate in the the Dushanbe conference.


4. (SBU) Pushing his pet hydropower project, Rhamonov
expressed hope the United States would build a 3600 megawatt
hydropower station at Dasti-jhum on the Pyanj river between
Tajikistan and Afghanistan. "It would accelerate growth and
development throughout the region," he argued. He admitted that
attracting a private company will be essential. "I understand
that your president cannot just give an order." Nonetheless, he
hoped the United States would support Tajikistan's position.

AFGHANISTAN


5. (C) Rahmonov admitted Afghanistan's deteriorating situation
worried Tajikistan. Referring to increased violence in southern
Afganistan, he implored the international community to
demonstrate "unity and strength" in combating terrorism. "Who is
behind the Taliban?" he asked. "You must examine this closer."
Forces trying to destabilize Afghanistan also wanted to prevent
Central Asia from reaching its potential, he opined much later
in the meeting. "The Taliban was not born in Afghanistan;
Pakistan is its native land." He criticized Pakistan's
Inter-Services Intelligence for supporting the Taliban. "But it

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is not just armed by Pakistan and the Arabs," he cautioned
cryptically.


6. (C) Rahmonov hinted he had information about General Dostum
assembling armed forces in Sherbergan to work against the peace
process. "He is getting support from a neighbor-that assistance
wasn't there six months ago," he implied. "Anyone can work
with the Taliban." He suggested Iran should be closely watched,
and noted with Russia providing high tech weapons to Uzbekistan,
Karimov could be selling his old equipment to the south.

When Boucher pressed him for a point of contact in the security
services, Rahmonov deflected the question, saying he did not
have specific information. "Some third countries do not want
stability in Afghanistan, they want a buffer," he said. "I told
(Afghanistan President Hamid) Karzai that Dostum would be a pain
in his neck. Dostum has betrayed others."


7. (SBU) Rahmonov maintained economic development was the key
to Afghanistan's stability and noted the Dasti-jhum project
could also irrigate 2 million hectares of land, and help provide
alternatives to poppies.


8. (C) Boucher responded that it had been a difficult year,
but Afghanistan had made progress in five years, with an elected
government and parliament. The increased violence in southern
Afghanistan was in part a failure of the government to engage
the region, in part due to operations from Pakistan and also due
to Taliban and drug traffickers working together. The United
States was committed to Afghanistan, and looking for ways to
expand Afghan security services, build the economy and
strengthen counter-narcotics efforts.


9. (C) Rahmonov asked whether the United States was searching
for a replacement for Karzai since "some" are spreading such
rumors. Boucher unequivocally responded Washington supported
the democratically elected Afghan president, calling him the
best person for the job and Afghanistan at the moment.


10. (C) Rahmonov mentioned that General Khudoberdiev, a Tajik
opposition commander now operating in Uzbekistan with support
from President Karimov, was working with General Dostum's
brother to traffic drugs in the region. (NOTE: Embassy has
heard increasing complaints from Tajik officials regarding
Khudoberdiev as a "worse threat than al-Qaeda," septels.)

THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


11. (SBU) Exactly one month away from the presidential
election, Rahmonov emphasized the election was to be conducted
according to international standards. He repeated several
times that he had instructed his administration to follow all
Tajik election laws, and allow media opportunities for
opposition candidates. "There should be no interference in the
process," he stressed, noting he had three meetings with
election officials to hammer home than point. He didn't need
special treatment, he laughed, because "The people know the name
Rahmonov!" He hoped the election would provide a fundamental
basis for democracy.


12. (SBU) Boucher told Rahmonov the election was an
opportunity to move Tajikistan forward. He observed that the
Central Committee for Election and Referenda's efforts on voter
education, election materials and international observers were
small steps forward, but many important measures remained, such
as allowing media outlets and radio stations to be licensed.
Boucher also noted there should be consequences for those
officials and individuals who violated election laws. This was
an opportunity for Tajikistan and Rahmonov to earn international
respect.

UZBEKISTAN


13. (C) Noting that Tajikistan wanted cooperation with all its
neighbors, Rahmonov underscored how difficult Uzbekistan was.
"We want trade, development and border cooperation, instead we
get barriers and minefields." Uzbekistan recently blocked
Kyrgyzstan from selling Tajikistan electricity by refusing to
let it go through the Uzbek power lines, and proposing that

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Tajikistan purchase electricity from Uzbekistan at three times
the price.


14. (C) Boucher remarked that the United States shared
Tajikistan's vision for regional cooperation. Boucher and
Rahmonov agreed that for the time being, projects directed at
regional integration would have to be designed to avoid Uzbek
control.

RUSSIA


15. (C) Rahmonov alluded to the pressure Tajikistan felt from
the Russian mass media and Russian government and reported he
had told Russian Prime Minister Fradtkov during the September
Shanghai Cooperation Organization Ministerial in Dushanbe that
Tajikistan did not need a big brother. Rahmonov said, "Fradtkov
needs to recalculate. We are not an impoverished country. We
are paying our debts, not extending our hands."


16. (C) With a sigh, Rahmonov observed the different political
pressure they felt. He bluntly stated that Russia did not want
stability in Afghanistan; a weak Afghanistan would serve both to
portray the U.S. efforts as a failure, and also prevent Central
Asian countries from achieving economic independence. He
remarked that many former Soviet republics were watching
relations between Russia and Georgia unravel with great concern.
He noted that Tajikistan had learned its lessons from Moldova
and Belarus, countries without direct access to seaports which
had to rely on good relations with neighbors to export their
products. "We need an exit to the south," he said, which was
why stability in Afghanistan was crucial to Tajikistan's own
future.


17. (C) China was a more reliable partner than Russia, as was
the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, said
Rahmonov. Russia made grand promises but failed to deliver on
significant long-term economic projects.

ECONOMIC SUPPORT AND DEBT RELIEF


18. (SBU) Rahmonov mentioned in passing the hope that the U.S.
would follow the initiative of "eight other countries" in
providing debt relief for highly impoverished countries. He
also requested support as Tajikistan moves towards entering the
World Trade Organization.

COMMENT


19. (C) Speaking freely and thoughtfully, Rahmonov covered no
new ground, but emphasized issues important to both countries.
His grave concern about the problems in Afghanistan indicated
Rahmonov is acutely aware that Tajikistan's security and
stability may lie with its southern neighbor. Rahmonov's
multiple veiled references to third parties hoping to
destabilize Afghanistan "to create a buffer" indicate a
suspicion that Russia, but also Uzbekistan and Iran, may be
trying to influence the geo-political balance in the region in
ways that are not in Tajikistan's interests. His comments on
Russia underscore growing displeasure with Moscow's heavy hand
in domestic and regional affairs. However, the situation in
Georgia has sent a powerful message to other former Soviet
republics-a message Rahmonov seems to have gotten.


20. (C) Rahmonov understands what international observers want
to hear about the presidential election, and he may be sincere
in hoping that his administration does not interfere with the
electoral process. Certainly, with no true opposite candidates
running, Rahmonov can afford to be magnanimous. However, it
remains to be seen whether district and local level officials,
raised in a Soviet-style mindset where anything less than 99
percent is not victory, will understand and implement Rahmonov's
instructions.


21. (U) State Advisor for Economic Affairs Matlabkhan Davlatov
and Energy Minister Abdullo Yerov flanked Rahmonov for the first
half of the meeting, but left after Rahmonov gestured for them
to exit. Ambassador Jacobson and PolOff accompanied Assistant
Secretary Boucher.

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JACOBSON