SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO DUSHANBE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 001803

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM EAID EINV TI
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S BOUCHER'S VISIT TO DUSHANBE

CLASSIFIED BY: Tracey Ann Jacobson, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dushanbe, STATE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (U) Embassy Dushanbe welcomes Assistant Secretary Boucher
back to Tajikistan. This visit will be a good opportunity for
you to build upon your May meetings in Dushanbe and give an
extra push for better conduct one month before the presidential
election.


2. (C) The U.S.-Tajikistan bilateral relationship remains
positive overall, but we have seen some troubling signs
particularly in the democratic development arena. Your visit
exactly one month ahead of the November 6 presidential election
is prime time to highlight problems with a one-sided election,
the downward trend in treatment of non-governmental
organizations, and problems in the business environment.
Tajikistan remains a strong cooperative partner on issues of
border security and the war against terror and we hope to use
this success to leverage improvements in other areas. (See
suggested talking points, paras 7, 10, 13, 15, 19.)

NOVEMBER 6 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION


3. (SBU) The State Department's Bureau of Democracy, Human
Rights and Labor recently granted the International Foundation
for Election Systems an additional $300,000. Through the
efforts of this foundation, the Embassy, the Organization for
Security and Cooperation in Europe and the United Nations
Tajikistan Office of Peacebuilding, the Central Commission for
Elections and Referenda has taken significant steps forward
changing election protocols to more closely approach
international standards, issuing uniform manuals and training
polling station workers.


4. (C) Despite small technical steps forward, the political
playing field is wildly unbalanced. The "opposition" political
parties-- the Democratic Party of Tajikistan, the Social
Democratic Party of Tajikistan and the Islamic Renaissance Party
of Tajikistan-- are not fielding or supporting candidates for
the election. The Democratic Party of Tajikistan and Social
Democratic Party of Tajikistan publicly criticize Rahmonov and
his government, calling his presidency illegal and
unconstitutional, and refuse to recognize the November 6
election. The rest of the parties are pocket parties --
pro-governmental parties who put forth candidates for the effect
of pluralism -- or are too weak to have a serious impact.
Central Asia's only Islamic political party, the Islamic
Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, is in a vulnerable position
after the recent death of its leader, Said Abdullo Nuri. A
government smear campaign over the years since the civil war has
led much of the public to believe that the Islamic Renaissance
Party of Tajikistan could become a violent force of instability.
Knowing that the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan will
not win in the election and not wanting to further the
opposition stereotype, Muhiddin Kabiri, the present chairman,
has said that his party will take a hiatus to revamp its image
and build its base in preparation for parliamentary elections in
three years.


5. (SBU) The Office for Democratic Institutions and Human
Rights (ODIHR) plans on sending in long term observers and 100
short term observers for the election. Its observation
mission's report could be a map for future election
improvements. We expect the parallel Commonwealth of
Independent States observer team will not provide as useful a
critique of the election process. We must remember that in a
country like Tajikistan, democratic progress can be slow and the
international community needs to remain vigilant and engaged.


6. (C) Controversial laws have also been sidelined until after
the election. History shows that leaders tend to tighten the
reigns after they consolidate power, and it is possible Rahmonov
may gain the confidence to adopt more authoritarian policies
after his expected landslide victory.


7. (C) Suggested talking points:

-- As a popular leader, you have a real opportunity to conduct
a fair election-you don't need to falsify results. We
appreciate you and other senior government leaders making public

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statements calling for a fair election. This message needs to
be delivered to the local levels.

-- We hope that all candidates will have greater access to the
media and equal exposure.

-- We are concerned about continuing harassment of journalists
leading up the election and a recent order from your government
asking internet service providers to shut down all websites
critical of the government.

A DOWNWARD TREND FOR EXCHANGE PROGRAMS AND THE NON GOVERNMENTAL
ORGANIZATION CLIMATE


8. (C) Although Tajikistan does have a vibrant civil society,
we remain concerned about an apparent trend against
foreign-sponsored non governmental organizations. The most
recent victim is Mercy Corps where an expat had to leave
following a "poison pen" letter and pressure from the Ministry
of Justice. The Mercy Corps problem falls into a pattern of
certain ministries pressuring or harassing U.S.-funded non
governmental organizations, including National Democratic
Institute, International Research and Exchanges Board, Internews
and the American Bar Association Central European and Eurasian
Law Initiative.


9. (C) We would like to increase U.S.- Tajik exchanges
exponentially. Tajik government officials and religious and
civil society leaders regularly and eagerly call for
opportunities to send their young people to the United States.
However, we are disappointed that Embassy and U.S. non
governmental organization exchange programs have faced
obstacles. The president has reportedly put a moratorium on all
official travel abroad leading up to election and the
International Research and Exchanges Board has recently been
informed they are not permitted to begin recruiting for Muskie
or U-GRAD educational exchange programs until after January

2007.


10. (C) Suggested talking points:

-- The climate for international non governmental organizations
continues to concern us. Non governmental organizations are
still harassed by certain ministries and refused registration.

-- The National Democratic Institute remains unregistered and
Internews has not been able to reregister. We hope that you
will register them so that their employees can continue to carry
out good work for the people of Tajikistan.

-- The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has told the International
Research and Exchange Board to delay recruitment until next
year. We know the emphasis you place on education and ask you
to support our efforts to send students to the United States,
not postpone them.

BUSINESS CLIMATE: BUYER BEWARE


11. (C) Tajikistan officials regularly and publicly state they
want foreign investors to bring money to Tajikistan to develop
their energy, textiles, and other industries. However, a recent
survey showed that 85% of Tajiks think corruption is the main
factor hindering economic growth, while Transparency
International ranks Tajikistan as one of the most corrupt
countries in the world. Officials point to their transparent
laws on investment but the government regularly sidesteps these
rules at every level. Tajiks pay bribes for jobs, education,
and services. Foreign and domestic investors face the
uncertainty of a non-working judicial sector that cannot back up
contracts. Our economic assistance programs and others
including the World Bank can help. At a certain level the
Tajiks recognize this and have been cooperating.


12. (SBU) Your discussions on this issue will provide a
suitable opening to address the case of Gerald Metals whose
contract dispute with Tajik aluminum giant TadAZ remains bogged
down in legal proceedings. A similar case against TadAZ by
Norsk Hydro led to the largest ever political risk insurance
settlement, making large investors more shy than ever about
investing in Tajikistan. Failure to resolve the Gerald Metals
case would further deteriorate Tajikistan's investment

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reputation.


13. (C) Suggested talking points:

-- The U.S.-funded Pyanj bridge project is evidence of our
support for economic development and regional integration. The
bridge is set for completion in June 2007, and will help develop
commercial ties between Tajikistan and Afghanistan.

--- Through a variety of assistance projects, including the
transmission line feasibility study, programs for small and
medium businesses, and banking sector projects, we are
supporting Tajik economic development.

-- However, Tajikistan needs to do better to rid itself of the
Soviet legacy of corruption. In order to attract Western
investment, especially in Tajikistan's energy sector, the
government needs to increase transparency, introduce regulatory
reform and respect for rule-of-law and sanctity of contracts.

-- Gerald Metals: What are the prospects for resolution?

BORDER SECURITY: A CORNERSTONE OF ASSISTANCE


14. (C) Border security and counter-narcotics continue to be
cornerstones in our bilateral relationship. The Tajiks
appreciate our assistance and are more than willing partners in
law enforcement and border security. We regularly facilitate
training for Tajik military and uniformed personnel and
exchanges to the United States and the Marshall Center. We
continue to renovate and equip outposts along the Afghan border.
We have a Harris radio team that will help install a new
communications system, allowing the border guards to be more
effective. This new communications system is the first of its
kind in the region and will link all security ministries
facilities and headquarters with state of the art
interconnectivity.


15. (SBU) Suggested talking points:

-- Congratulation on your excellent drug interdiction rates. We
will need to continue to support these efforts as the amount of
opium Afghanistan produces and exports increases. Tajikistan
bears an important task in a dangerous neighborhood.

THE ENERGY OF THE SHANGHAI COOPERATION ORGANIZATION


16. (C) At the September 15-16 Shanghai Cooperation
Organization meeting here in Dushanbe, China claims to have kept
the discussions well within what we consider positive
parameters, focusing on economic cooperation first and foremost,
although China and Tajikistan also completed their first joint
military exercises in the Tajik mountains. China announced a
host of cultural and educational initiatives aimed at building
trust here. Public comment -- and we have not heard otherwise
-- from Russia and Tajikistan underlines that countries in the
region will try to use the Shanghai Cooperation Organization
mainly for economic purposes.


17. (C) There has been rampant speculation about the make-up
and direction of the proposed "Shanghai Cooperation Organization
Energy Club", which may become an important mechanism, but would
only be one of many fora discussing regional energy issues.
With a cold winter of energy shortages approaching, Tajikistan
is laser-focused on negotiating with Uzbekistan on natural gas
imports to keep some electricity running in Tajikistan to heat
the countryside. Tajikistan hopes the Shanghai Cooperation
Organization can help them leverage Uzbekistan on energy issues
in the future; the Uzbek side has shown no interest in helping
its neighbor, however. In the long-term, Tajikistan may try to
develop its latent coal, oil, and natural gas resources. Also,
the new United States Agency for International Development
Regional Energy Market Assistance Program (REMAP) is designed to
help the region form a functioning energy market. In the
short-term, rationing and stockpiling for the winter has already
begun.


18. (C) Overall, Tajikistan has taken a healthy approach to
China. We agree with the International Monetary Fund and others
that the $637 million Chinese loan for Tajik infrastructure
projects will bring positive economic development and increased

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trade and investment opportunities. Partnering with China
reduces Tajikistan's reliance on Uzbekistan and Russia for its
overall needs, while also reducing our own leverage here. China
possesses the advantage of tremendous resources combined with
rapid implementation. With ink still wet on the investment loan
agreements, the Chinese have begun work on road and energy
projects. By contrast, Tajiks increasingly view the U.S. as
slow-moving, and are frustrated with our lack of public
financial support for new energy projects. The Minister of
Energy recently complained that U.S. company AES is behind
schedule in completing its feasibility study of a north-south
transmission line. With hydropower, the Tajiks are looking to
whoever can construct dams fastest. Russian giant RusAl has
staked its claim on Rogun but continues to drag its feet on
agreement of financial and technical terms with Tajikistan. The
Tajiks will also bring up the Dhasti-Jhum dam project, which has
huge potential. Rahmonov will likely ask for our assistance in
developing this project, perhaps funding a feasibility study.


19. (C) Suggested talking points:

-- The U.S. supports Tajikistan's plans for development of its
extensive hydropower resources, and we will provide whatever
technical and coordination support we can. U.S. company AES
remains interested in investing in the hydropower sector.

-- The U.S. appreciates Tajikistan's support for regional
energy development projects that will help its neighbor,
Afghanistan, such as the transmission lines to be constructed
next year.

-- We look forward to the upcoming regional energy conference
in Dushanbe at the end of October as a means to discuss future
energy cooperation.
JACOBSON