SIX WEEKS OUT: NO STRONG CANDIDATE WILL CHALLENGE RAHMONOV

UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001773

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TI
SUBJECT: SIX WEEKS OUT: NO STRONG CANDIDATE WILL CHALLENGE RAHMONOV

REF: Dushanbe 1766


1. (U) Tajikistan's opposition political party congresses have
taken a stance not to participate in the election. Short of
boycotting the election, the Islamic Renaissance Party of
Tajikistan (IRPT),the Social Democratic Party of Tajikistan
(SDPT) and the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) each decided
not to nominate a candidate to run against President Rahmonov in
the November election. In addition the parties will not throw
their support behind any candidate.


2. (U) The SDPT and the DPT declared the election "irrelevant"
and spoke out against the unconstitutional nature of Rahmonov's
presidency. They will not consider the results of the November
election legitimate. The parties as a whole are refusing to
participate in the election, but will allow members to vote for
whomever they choose. The DPT and SDPT, spearheaded by the
country's preeminent constitutional lawyer Rahmatullo Zoyirov
who helped draft the constitution, do not recognize the 2003
constitutional referendum that permitted Rahmonov to run for two
additional seven-year terms. Both parties publicly stated that
they foresee the election will not be free or fair.


3. (U) The IRPT congress on similar lines voted unanimously
not to nominate a candidate, not to publicly support any
candidate and also not to boycott the election. In addition,
the party rationalized that it needs to work on its image. It
does not want the people to view it as an opposition party that
is a destabilizing force, a reputation stemming from the Civil
War that ended nearly ten years ago. The Ambassador met with
IPRT Chairman Muhiddin Kabiri September 26 to discuss this
decision further. (reftel).


4. (U) The IRPT's Chief of Information, Saifullozoda remarked
the decision was "in the spirit of the late Nuri." Saifullozoda
suggested that just as a decision to remain silent is inherent
in free speech, the IRPT's decision to not to field a candidate
is consistent with the practice of democracy.


5. (U) Rahmonov officially accepted the People's Democratic
Party of Tajikistan's nomination to run for a new term September

23. He was unanimously supported by the party's delegates.
The Communist Party of Tajikistan (CPT) also nominated Ismoil
Talbakov, a parliament member.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: The SDPT, DPT and IRPT's decisions not to
run a candidate do not come as a surprise. All three know that
no candidate they field could possibly beat Rahmonov. In the
SDPT and DPT's case, taking a stance and not participating is
the loudest political message they could send and a more shrewd
move than attempting to field a candidate. Although the IRPT
took a similar stance, it distanced itself slightly from the
SDPT and DPT, not wanting to be lumped in the category of
"opposition" political parties. If the IRPT ran Kabiri, he and
IRPT members would have faced harassment from the government.
If the IRPT supported Rahmonov, it would create more tension and
possibly a public party split.


7. (SBU) The OSCE has said that it will send 100 short term
observers for the election with the caveat that if no credible
opposition candidates emerge, it would consider rescinding the
decision. With the SDPT, DPT and IRPT out, no true opposition
candidate is eligible to run. Narziev's Socialist Party of
Tajikistan, although considered opposition is not eligible to
run since the party is not officially registered. We will see
if the OSCE considers the pocket party and pro-governmental
party candidates to be credible. END COMMENT.

JACOBSON