Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUSHANBE1766
2006-09-27 10:27:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI'S IRPT TAKES A "TIME OUT"

Tags:  PGOV PREL OEXC TI 
pdf how-to read a cable
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001766 

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL OEXC TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI'S IRPT TAKES A "TIME OUT"

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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 DUSHANBE 001766

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E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL OEXC TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: KABIRI'S IRPT TAKES A "TIME OUT"

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1. (SBU) SUMMARY: During an hour-long introductory call with
the Ambassador September 26, Islamic Renaissance Party of
Tajikistan (IRPT) leader Muhiddin Kabiri described his party's
reasoning for not participating in the upcoming presidential
elections. Kabiri said the party would use the next three years
to increase party strength and "build trust from domestic
society and the international community" in preparation for the
2009 parliamentary elections - "the government will no longer be
able to play the Islamic fear card against us then." Kabiri
made a plea for increased educational exchanges and help
improving the level of English among the party's young people -
"otherwise they go to Russia." End Summary.

===============

Internal and External Factors Behind the "Time Out" Decision

===============


2. (SBU) Kabiri listed several domestic reasons for the
party's September 25 decision not to participate in the
presidential elections. First, there is no proper legal basis
for the elections. Perhaps more importantly, Rahmonov's forces
have created a political environment where society believes
there is no real alternative to him. The "monopolist" press has
already been conducting a pro-Rahmonov campaign for two or three
years; it is impossible to conduct a campaign in a matter of
months. "You could battle Rahmonov as a person, as a politician
- but not his administrative resources." Kabiri described a
belief that exists both in Tajikistan and sometimes abroad that
the active political participation of an Islamic party is
ironically a threat to democratization - the ruling party argues
that should the IRPT gain power, it will set Tajikistan on the
same course as Afghanistan under the Taliban, or at least be
"bad for the investment environment." The IRPT has found it
difficult to get out its message that it is not extremist, but
rather stands for fair government that reflects the common
"values of civilization and humanity" and not just Islamic
values.


3. (SBU) Kabiri also described challenges posed by the
external environment. When the U.S. began its fight against the
Taliban in Afghanistan, the party took a difficult decision - to

support the U.S. battle against terrorism even against
"believing Muslims." The party's support of the U.S. position
had cost it some of its electorate. The war in Iraq compounded
this problem, as had Western reaction to the election of Hamas
in Palestine. "Our people say that when an Islamic party was
democratically elected, it created a rift with the West, and
caused problems not just for the government, but for the people
of Palestine." Kabiri's media statements that his party decided
not to participate in the election so as "not to create a
confrontational situation" grow in part from this perception.


4. (SBU) "There will not be a true contest," Kabiri predicted.
When we participate in elections, he added, we want to
participate in a true competition. To participate at this
juncture would "play with the feelings of the electorate."

==============

Election Conduct and Next Steps

==============


5. (SBU) Kabiri said his party would like to observe the
voting process, and would like to have one of its members
participate in the Election Commission (Note: Parliament
Speaker and Dushanbe Mayor Ubaidulloyev had told Ambassador
earlier that day that only parties fielding a candidate would be
allowed to observe the elections at polling places. The Mayor
is probably incorrect. The Central Committee on Elections and

DUSHANBE 00001766 002.2 OF 003


Referenda already having approved IRPT representatives at
polling stations even prior to its decision not to field a
candidate. The CCER's Deputy Chairman Muhibulloh Dodojonov has
already told international organizations that the government has
changed the decree to permit all political parties to send in
observers regardless of whether or not they have fielded a
candidate.) Kabiri said he doubted the presidential election
would be substantially better than the last parliamentary
elections. Following the election, which Kabiri described as a
"Time Out" for his party, the IPRT will focus its efforts on
"building up trust in society" and "strengthening the party" for
participation in parliamentary elections three years hence. He
said the environment then would be different - "they will no
longer be able to play the fear-of-Islamists card against us."
The IPRT would not be substantially changing its strategies or
tactics, "but every generation has its own view."

===============

Separating the IRPT from Extremists

===============


6. (SBU) Kabiri pointed out the difference between what he
called "extremist" groups such as the IMU, which use violence to
achieve political goals, and "radical" groups such at Hizb Ut
-Tahrir (HT),which do not. "I'm not a supporter of HT," he
said, "but we shouldn't be imprisoning people for having radical
ideas if they're not acting on them with violence." When you
put young people in jail for 8-10 years because of political
ideology, they're already "lost" and more disposed to become
extremists, even terrorists. The official position of the IRPT
is that HT's ideas are utopian and against the national interest
of an independent and sovereign Tajikistan.

==============

Request for More Exchanges

==============


7. (SBU) As in every official meeting the Ambassador has had
since her arrival, Kabiri asked for more educational exchange
opportunities for Tajik students, especially those from the
IRPT. Many of his staff have been to the United States. "They
always return with a greater appreciation for the U.S. because
of the respect they see for Muslims there." He lamented that so
far no IRPT members had been selected for educational exchange
programs, "although I know the selection is fair and
transparent, and you cannot establish some kind of IRPT quota."
(Note: Vohidkhon Qisiddinov, Head of Administration for the IRPT
was selected for USAID's Community Connections exchange program
in the United States October 6-25.) He thought perhaps the
level of English language was not sufficient to compete
successfully, "so many of our students go to Russia." Kabiri
himself, who regularly travels abroad, including several visits
to lecture at Columbia University, has again been invited for a
three week trip this fall to the United States. "It's tough for
a political leader to be away for such a long time, and it's
also a political question - some of our members think I already
spend too much time in the West."


8. (SBU) Comment: While sharing the view of other opposition
parties who have opted out of the election (septel) that there
will not be a level playing field for candidates, Kabiri clearly
believes that the political dynamic in the country will evolve
over time to permit more electoral freedom. Although Rahmonov's
People's Democratic Party of Tajikistan will hold onto power,
the tools it has used to do so thus far (fear of instability,
assertions that an Islamic party would send Tajikistan back to
the dark ages) will be increasingly less effective as time goes
by and the devastating civil war recedes from the political

DUSHANBE 00001766 003.2 OF 003


consciousness.


9. (SBU) We are struck by the constant request for more
educational exchanges in the United States - including from some
less expected sources such as the leader of the Islamic party
and Parliament Speaker, largely believed to be in Moscow's
pocket. It is clear to us that the emerging political
generation, no longer overwhelmed by memories of the dark days
of the 1990s, is looking for a touchstone - if not in the United
States, they'll find it in Russia or Iran. To truly promote
democratic political development in the only country in Central
Asia to have a legal Islamic party, we need to dramatically
increase our exchanges, and find new ways to boost the level of
English language throughout the country - Peace Corps could play
a positive role in this regard. End Comment.
JACOBSON