Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUSHANBE1744
2006-09-22 10:05:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:  

SEVEN WEEKS OUT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN, TAJIK ELECTION

Tags:  PGOV KDEM TI 
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UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001744 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TI
SUBJECT: SEVEN WEEKS OUT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN, TAJIK ELECTION
CANDIDATES EMERGE

DUSHANBE 00001744 001.2 OF 002


UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001744

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TI
SUBJECT: SEVEN WEEKS OUT: LET THE GAMES BEGIN, TAJIK ELECTION
CANDIDATES EMERGE

DUSHANBE 00001744 001.2 OF 002



1. (U) Five political parties officially announced their
candidates for president during congresses held September 16-17.
The candidates thus far are all chairmen of their parties, have
little nationwide popular support and are weak politicians.
With the exception of Narziev's Socialist Party of Tajikistan,
all parties nominating candidates to date are widely known as
government pocket parties, created to give the impression of
pluralism. Although the parties have begun the nomination
process, it remains to be seen who will run in the election.
Candidates must first collect 160,000 signatures with government
certification in order to register for the Central Committee on
Election and Referenda to certify their candidacy


2. (U) The following is a list of parties that have announced
a candidate:

Agrarian Party of Tajikistan (APT) - Amir Qaraqulov, Chairman
Socialist Party of Tajikistan (SPT) (registered)- Abduhalim
Gafforov, Chairman
Socialist Party of Tajikistan (SPT) (unregistered)- Mirhusen
Narziev, Chairman
Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT) (Vatan faction)- Tavarali
Ziyoev, Deputy Chairman
Party of Economic Reform of Tajikistan (PERT) - Olimjon Boboyev,
Chairman


3. (U) The Democratic Party of Tajikistan, headed by
imprisoned the Iskandarov, the Social Democratic Party of
Tajikistan, the Islamic Renaissance Party of Tajikistan, the
Community Party of Tajikistan and President Rahmonov's People's
Democratic Party of Tajikistan (PDPT) plan to hold congresses
from September 23-25.


4. (U) As expected the Democratic Party of Tajikistan has
split into two and the Vatan faction will most likely support
Rahmonov's candidacy. Eight policemen provided security during
Vatan's congress and checked guests' ID as they entered, an
unusual service to political parties from the government. This
bolsters the general perception that Vatan is a PDPT affiliated
government pocket party. Vatan already has a tarnished
reputation for falsifying signatures of supporters when
submitting documents for registration. Because of the public
outcry over this fraudulent act, the Ministry of Justice does
not officially recognize Vatan as the Democratic Party of
Tajikistan and has formally requested the Central Committee on
Election and Referenda not to sanctify their participation in
the election process. As a sign of protest over unfair
democratic processes, Iskandarov's DPT and SDPT may boycott the
election.


5. (SBU) Rumors have surfaced in Dushanbe that the IRPT struck
a deal with Rahmonov and would support his re-election.
However, Kabiri reaffirmed to PolOff as other IRPT members have
repeatedly stated, the IRPT would rather declare its neutrality
and not support any candidate than throw their weight behind
Rahmonov. The IRPT's spiritual leader, Himmazoda has said that
according to his interpretation of the Koran, if the IRPT cannot
win the election, they should not even try to advance a
candidate. Rahmonov himself has yet to officially declare his
candidacy for president and publicly said he has not decided if
he would run or not. However, it is expected that not only will
he run, but win.


6. (SBU) COMMENT: At this point, no party is strong enough to
field a candidate that would truly compete with Rahmonov.
However, the president's PDPT still views the IRPT as its
primary competition. If the IRPT put forth a popular candidate

DUSHANBE 00001744 002 OF 002


such as Kabiri, he would undoubtedly deplete Rahmonov's
percentage by at least a few points, thereby giving the
impression the President is less popular than he was 7 years
ago. The PDPT may have tried to coerce the IRPT into supporting
Rahmonov, but coming right on the heels of Nuri's death,
agreeing to support Rahmonov would create internal rifts and be
political suicide. END COMMENT.
JACOBSON