Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUSHANBE1600
2006-08-23 12:44:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Dushanbe
Cable title:
TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER
how-toVZCZCXRO8648 RR RUEHLN RUEHVK RUEHYG DE RUEHDBU #1600 2351244 ZNR UUUUU ZZH R 231244Z AUG 06 FM AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 8417 INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE RUEHAK/AMEMBASSY ANKARA 1783 RUEHIL/AMEMBASSY ISLAMABAD 1781 RUEHBUL/AMEMBASSY KABUL 1740 RUMICEA/USCENTCOM INTEL CEN MACDILL AFB FL RUEPGDA/USEUCOM JIC VAIHINGEN GE RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/JCS NMCC WASHINGTON DC RHEHNSC/WHITE HOUSE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RUEHNE/AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI 1744 RUEHBJ/AMEMBASSY BEIJING 1785 RUEHDBU/AMEMBASSY DUSHANBE 9804
UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001600
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; OES
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER
LEVEL
REF: Dushanbe 1465
UNCLAS DUSHANBE 001600
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; OES
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER
LEVEL
REF: Dushanbe 1465
1. Two recent earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes in
southern Tajikistan offered a bracing reminder that this
mountainous country remains seismically very active (Reftel).
In 1911, a strong earthquake rocked Tajikistan's Pamir
mountains, triggering a massive landslide that created the Usoi
Dam along the Murghob River and Lake Sarez. The Usoi Dam is the
largest naturally-formed dam in the world, holding in Lake
Sarez's 17 cubic kilometers of water. If the dam were to break,
or an earthquake or landslide were to spill water over the dam,
the result could be catastrophic flooding not only in
Tajikistan, but also into Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and
Afghanistan downstream. PolOff and Regional Environment
Officer met with the Ministry of Emergency Situation's Special
Agency on Lake Sarez's Director Amin Husainov August 17 to
review the status of Lake Sarez.
2. Director Husainov stated the situation remains very
dangerous and that the Tajik government treats the problem very
seriously. The Agency briefs the government daily on the lake's
water levels and any new or extraordinary activity. The
Government pays close attention, because an earthquake of the
magnitude that created the lake occurs in the area every 80 to
120 years. Given that the earthquake that created the lake
occurred 95 years ago, it is believed a similar earthquake could
happen at any time. In addition, most lakes created by such
events are temporary and eventually disappear. The lake's water
level has risen substantially. For the past ten years, the
water level rose an average of ten centimeters annually, but a
greater volume of snow melt from the Pamirs caused the Lake to
rise a whopping 2.62 meters last year.
3. Experts have come to conflicting conclusions about the Usoi
Dam's stability. Some predict it is vulnerable to large
earthquakes and will eventually break; others claim the dam is
quite sturdy and Lake Sarez will remain a permanent geographical
fixture in Tajikistan's landscape. Most experts agree that
although the dam might not instantly burst, in the event of a
landslide or earthquake, large scale flooding would occur. The
Tajik government created the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project
(LSRMP) with a $4.3 million budget jointly financed by the Tajik
government and the donor community (including USAID) to assess
the risks, develop early warning systems, and prepare local
communities for a possible disaster. The World Bank and Swiss
government are the largest contributors to LSRMP. An early
warning system was finished in 2004. The system should notify
officials in Dushanbe and residents in the affected area within
one minute of any irregular activity at the Usoi Dam or a change
in Lake Sarez's water level. Select residents in each village
of the potentially flooded areas received emergency training and
are equipped with communications radios.
4. The Uzbek government has expressed interest in developing an
early warning system for its territory, but has not made any
significant efforts to cooperate with Tajik authorities.
Studies predict that if the Usoi Dam were to break completely,
flood waters could spread as far as a 20-km width along the
Uzbek plains and could be as high as twelve meters when it
reached Uzbekistan. The water would flood from the Pamirs down
through the Bartang, Pyanj, and Amu Darya Rivers all the way to
the Aral Sea. Over two million people in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
and Turkmenistan, as well as the settlements and cities along
the rivers, could be affected by flooding. Such possible
flooding poses not only an immediate danger to people's lives,
but has longer term economic implications for agriculture and
economic development.
5. COMMENT: Lake Sarez is a natural wonder that could become a
natural disaster with one good quake. The Tajik authorities
monitor the situation as best they can, but aside from early
warning measures, already in place, and hopefully functional,
there is little any government could do to prevent this
disaster. Because the most damage would be in Uzbekistan,
Tashkent and Dushanbe would be well advised to cooperate on
early warning systems. END COMMENT.
HUSHEK
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR SCA/CEN; OES
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL SENV TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN: WARM TEMPERATURES RAISE LAKE SAREZ'S WATER
LEVEL
REF: Dushanbe 1465
1. Two recent earthquakes that damaged thousands of homes in
southern Tajikistan offered a bracing reminder that this
mountainous country remains seismically very active (Reftel).
In 1911, a strong earthquake rocked Tajikistan's Pamir
mountains, triggering a massive landslide that created the Usoi
Dam along the Murghob River and Lake Sarez. The Usoi Dam is the
largest naturally-formed dam in the world, holding in Lake
Sarez's 17 cubic kilometers of water. If the dam were to break,
or an earthquake or landslide were to spill water over the dam,
the result could be catastrophic flooding not only in
Tajikistan, but also into Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and
Afghanistan downstream. PolOff and Regional Environment
Officer met with the Ministry of Emergency Situation's Special
Agency on Lake Sarez's Director Amin Husainov August 17 to
review the status of Lake Sarez.
2. Director Husainov stated the situation remains very
dangerous and that the Tajik government treats the problem very
seriously. The Agency briefs the government daily on the lake's
water levels and any new or extraordinary activity. The
Government pays close attention, because an earthquake of the
magnitude that created the lake occurs in the area every 80 to
120 years. Given that the earthquake that created the lake
occurred 95 years ago, it is believed a similar earthquake could
happen at any time. In addition, most lakes created by such
events are temporary and eventually disappear. The lake's water
level has risen substantially. For the past ten years, the
water level rose an average of ten centimeters annually, but a
greater volume of snow melt from the Pamirs caused the Lake to
rise a whopping 2.62 meters last year.
3. Experts have come to conflicting conclusions about the Usoi
Dam's stability. Some predict it is vulnerable to large
earthquakes and will eventually break; others claim the dam is
quite sturdy and Lake Sarez will remain a permanent geographical
fixture in Tajikistan's landscape. Most experts agree that
although the dam might not instantly burst, in the event of a
landslide or earthquake, large scale flooding would occur. The
Tajik government created the Lake Sarez Risk Mitigation Project
(LSRMP) with a $4.3 million budget jointly financed by the Tajik
government and the donor community (including USAID) to assess
the risks, develop early warning systems, and prepare local
communities for a possible disaster. The World Bank and Swiss
government are the largest contributors to LSRMP. An early
warning system was finished in 2004. The system should notify
officials in Dushanbe and residents in the affected area within
one minute of any irregular activity at the Usoi Dam or a change
in Lake Sarez's water level. Select residents in each village
of the potentially flooded areas received emergency training and
are equipped with communications radios.
4. The Uzbek government has expressed interest in developing an
early warning system for its territory, but has not made any
significant efforts to cooperate with Tajik authorities.
Studies predict that if the Usoi Dam were to break completely,
flood waters could spread as far as a 20-km width along the
Uzbek plains and could be as high as twelve meters when it
reached Uzbekistan. The water would flood from the Pamirs down
through the Bartang, Pyanj, and Amu Darya Rivers all the way to
the Aral Sea. Over two million people in Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
and Turkmenistan, as well as the settlements and cities along
the rivers, could be affected by flooding. Such possible
flooding poses not only an immediate danger to people's lives,
but has longer term economic implications for agriculture and
economic development.
5. COMMENT: Lake Sarez is a natural wonder that could become a
natural disaster with one good quake. The Tajik authorities
monitor the situation as best they can, but aside from early
warning measures, already in place, and hopefully functional,
there is little any government could do to prevent this
disaster. Because the most damage would be in Uzbekistan,
Tashkent and Dushanbe would be well advised to cooperate on
early warning systems. END COMMENT.
HUSHEK