TAJIKISTAN'S POLITICAL PARTIES CONSIDER BOYCOTTING ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001470

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN, DRL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/2/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM TI
SUBJECT: TAJIKISTAN'S POLITICAL PARTIES CONSIDER BOYCOTTING ELECTION


CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy,
Dushanbe, State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: The three main opposition political parties
are considering boycotting Tajikistan's presidential election as
a statement of protest. Knowing Rahmonov will win handily and
worried legitimate opposition candidates may not even have a
chance to run, the Democratic Party of Tajikistan (DPT),the
Social-Democratic Party of Tajikistan (SDPT) and the Islamic
Renaissance Party of Tajikistan (IRPT) have all told EmbOffs
they may boycott the election. In a series of meetings with
EmbOffs July 27-28, deputy chairmen from the three parties
discussed how each party will gear up for the election, or not
take action, in the absence of their chairmen. The Chairman of
the IRPT is still seriously ill, the Chairman of the SDPT is in
Switzerland seeking treatment for a stroke and the DPT's
Iskandarov remains in detention; although he may be called to
Moscow as a witness in his kidnapping trial. END SUMMARY.

IRPT'S NURI INCREASINGLY ILL


2. (C) Said Abdullo Nuri, Chairman of IRPT, returned to
Dushanbe July 26 from Germany, where he was undergoing treatment
for cancer. According to Muhiddin Kabiri, Deputy Chairman of
the IRPT, Nuri's health is deteriorating rapidly. The party's
presidium is seriously concerned and has relocated its
headquarters to Nuri's home and asked Kabiri to cancel a trip
abroad.


3. (C) Kabiri had planned to meet with political parties in
the UAE and Turkey to seek financial and political support.
When asked about the IRPT's relations with Iran, Kabiri noted
that the during President Ahmadinejad's visit to Tajikistan July
25-27, the IRPT did not meet with anyone from the visiting
delegation. Kabiri observed that as Iran's relations with the
government of Tajikistan improve, the IRPT's relationship with
Iran has waned. Kabiri stressed sincere regret at not being
able to meet with the Iranians. (NOTE: During the Tajik civil
war, the Iranians and Afghans backed the IRPT, but Iran has
since ceased assistance to the party. END NOTE.)


4. (C) In a recent poll by a local media outlet, Kabiri was
voted as the chief rival to Rahmonov in the presidential
election. However, Kabiri remains insistent he will not run,
and instead predicts that his party will nominate a more
conservative candidate. IRPT make-up is about 80%
conservatives-- those adhering to more traditional Islamic
values and customs and 20% liberals-- those, who like Kabiri,
are moderate and do not strictly follow rules such as wearing a
beard or praying five times a day. Despite the distinction
between conservatives and liberals, he insists that the IRPT
remains united. (COMMENT: The decision to run a conservative
candidate may be driven by Rahmonov's expressed desire to see a
more conservative Muslim lead the IRPT. With a conservative
leading the IRPT, Rahmonov has better leverage potentially to
label the IRPT as an extremist religious group to his political
advantage. END COMMENT.)


5. (C) Despite criticisms that the IRPT is aligned with the
government, Kabiri emphatically stated, "In any case, we would
not support the candidacy of Rahmonov." If the IRPT is unable
to register a candidate due to corrupt bureaucratic practices
and technicalities, the party would either boycott the election
or declare a neutral position.

DPT'S ISKANDAROV STILL IN TAJIK DETENTION, BUT MAY RETURN TO
MOSCOW


6. (C) DPT Deputy Chairman, Rahmatullo Valiev, informed PolOff
that a Moscow regional court in Russia has stated that

DUSHANBE 00001470 002 OF 002


Iskandarov should come back to Moscow as a witness in his own
kidnapping trial. Iskandarov's relatives opened a criminal case
in Russia's Karalova city charging that Russian law enforcement
authorities kidnapped Iskandarov and illegally extradited him to
Tajikistan. According to Valiev, the Karalova court agreed with
the General Prosecutor's office that Iskandarov's return to
Tajikistan was not illegal, but the Moscow regional court,
overriding the decision, said Iskandarov should be called back
to Moscow to testify and start an investigation. On July 31 the
Karalova city court rejected the higher court's decision and
refused to call Iskandarov back to Russia to testify.
Iskandarov's lawyer will once again appeal to the higher Moscow
regional court. Iskandarov alleged that he was illegally
kidnapped to Tajikistan while in Moscow to stand trial for a
variety of crimes for which he has been sentenced to 23 years in
prison. (COMMENT: It is unlikely that President Rahmonov would
allow Iskandarov to return to Moscow prior to the election. END
COMMENT)


7. (C) Valiev, as in every meeting with U.S. officials,
expressed great dissatisfaction in the election process and
blamed the U.S. Embassy as well as the OSCE, UN, IFES and other
international organizations for being complacent and not acting
to improve Tajikistan's flawed election process. He also
accused those organizations of working too closely with the
government. (COMMENT: The U.S. Embassy and IFES have taken an
inclusive approach towards reforming the election process and
elections legislation. At every step of the way, they have
included political parties as well as the Central Committee for
Election and Referenda. END COMMENT.)

SDPT'S ZOYIROV SEEKING TREATMENT IN SWITZERLAND


8. (C) Rahmatullo Zoyirov, the Chairman of the SDPT, is
currently in Switzerland undergoing medical exams and seeking
treatment for his recent stroke. It is unclear when he will
return to Dushanbe, but Deputy Chairman Amniyat Abdunazarov said
that Zoyirov's health is improving.


9. (C) The SDPT, a party of intelligentsia led by the
country's premier lawyer and a drafter of the constitution,
stands firmly behind its position that Rahmonov is an illegal
president and he cannot constitutionally run in the presidential
election. The SDPT knows well that any candidate it puts forth
will not be registered. The party is considering boycotting the
election to make a statement. By participating in the election,
it believes it would legitimize Rahmonov as president.


9. (C) COMMENT: The political parties are realistically
resigned to the fact that Rahmonov will win the presidential
election. They also know that they will most likely not be able
to register legitimate candidates in the race. With the
exception of the IRPT, the parties have based their platform on
decrying the president and the unfair process rather than
building a platform of ideological opinions, concrete changes
and services to appeal to the people. END COMMENT.


HOAGLAND