TAJIK-UZBEK TENSIONS GROWING IN GAS, WATER AND COUNTER

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DUSHANBE 001463

SIPDIS

STATE FOR SCA/CEN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ECON ENRG TJ UZ
SUBJECT: TAJIK-UZBEK TENSIONS GROWING IN GAS, WATER AND COUNTER
TERRORISM

REF: DUSHANBE 275

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1. SUMMARY AND COMMENT: In the last six weeks, the Tajik media
has reported on a series of small incidents, the sum of which
suggest that the already fractious relationship between
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan is not getting smoother, despite the
hopes raised when Uzbekistan joined the Eurasian Economic
Community (EurAsEC) in January. Gas, water, crime and
terrorism, pollution and student visas have all recently been
sources of bilateral tension. Moreover, President Rahmonov
publicly became more critical of Uzbekistan's failure to fulfill
its membership obligations in EurAsEC. Taken separately, none
of these issues seriously threatens regional stability.
However, a pattern of constant squabbling over minor topics-as
well as serious disagreements over water and gas -- could lead
to more intense rhetoric or actions, possibly making regional
transport and trade all the more difficult. END COMMENT.

GAS


2. Uzbekistan's natural gas supply company Uztransgaz limited
gas supplies to Tajikistan around June 19 due to more than $7
million in outstanding debts. Press reports quote state-owned
utility Tojikgaz head Shavkat Shoimov saying Tajikistan could
not repay its debt due to low collection rates. Shoimov called
Tajikistan's largest industrial enterprises the biggest
problems; Tojikcement alone owes Tojikgaz $2 million.


3. Another news report stated July 24 that in response to
Uzbekistan cutting the delivery of natural gas to Tajikistan,
Tajikistan blocked a pipeline transporting gas across Tajikistan
to the Uzbek part of Ferghana Valley. The report listed
Tojikgaz's debts to Uztransgaz as $7.63 million accumulated over
half a year, according to a representative of Uztransgaz. He
noted that Uztransgaz, having supplied gas to Tajikistan in a
volume of 347 million cubic meters for $19.88 million only
received $11.46 million.

WATER


4. In Ferghana valley, Tajikistan was unable to satisfy
Uzbekistan's water demand, Tajik Minister of Land Reclamation
and Water Resources Abdukokhir Nazirov announced July 17.
Tajikistan's Kairakkum reservoir had not yet reached its full
capacity due to a delay of water from the Kyrgyz Toqkogul
reservoir; therefore, Tajikistan could not provide Uzbekistan
with 600 cubic meters per second without threatening Tajik water
demand. Nazirov blamed the Kazakh and Kyrgyz governments for
implementing agreements too slowly on water transfer from
Toqtogul reservoir in exchange for gas and coal supplies for a
Kyrgyz power station. Nazirov commented during a press
conference that it would be "incorrect" to link
Tajikistan-Uzbekistan water regulation to gas supply issues.

TERRORISM


5. Tajik Interior Minister Khumdin Sharipov announced July 17
that in the first six months of 2006, Tajik authorities arrested
10 suspected members of the terrorist organization Islamic
Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU),after a special operation in the
northern city of Khujand. These arrests included four suspected
IMU members involved in November 2005 and January 2006 shootings
in Sughd region. July 26 Sughd police allegedly arrested a top
IMU figure, 30-year old Uzbek citizen, Ruslan Haqberdiyev, on
charges of organizing criminal activities and inciting ethnic
and religious enmity. Media reports claimed police confiscated
texts in English, Arabic and Uzbek on jihad as well as how to
organize explosions.


6. According to press reports, Uzbek authorities claimed June

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26 to have arrested a Tajik Spy in southern Uzbekistan. Uzbek
authorities detained Murodollo Jurayev in early June for
violating his visa, but alleged he was a drug trafficker, given
a special mission by the Tajik Ministry of Interior to recruit
people to carry out terrorist attacks on Uzbek territory. Tajik
police dismiss the claims as unfounded.

STUDENTS


7. A news agency reported June 23 that Tajik Pedagogical
institute expelled 50 Uzbek students for lack of visas; in fact,
the students had visas but did not have stamps from a border
crossing checkpoint. Later statements by university and
Ministry of Foreign Affairs officials stated the students could
continue to study, provided they "brought their documents in
order." Aside from an outraged article on the Uz-press.info
website, no further reports of student visa issues made the
press.

POLLUTION


8. Uzbekistan has long complained about air and water pollution
from TadAZ, Tajikistan's biggest industrial enterprise, a
state-owned aluminum smelter located a few miles west of the
Uzbek-Tajik border. A July 21 article in an Uzbek language
regional newspaper accused TadAZ of poisoning the environment,
calling the emissions an "aggression against Uzbekistan."
According to an Uzbek environmental organization, TadAZ emitted
600,000 tons of pollutants in the past several years; 60 tons
were hydrogen fluoride, which caused diseases in humans, animals
and plants. The report added that the incidence of growth and
endocrine diseases and of anemia among children under 14 has
grown by two to eight times in recent years (reftel).

EURASIAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY


9. According to multiple sources, Tajik President Rahmonov
openly argued with Uzbek President Karimov at the EurAsEC
meeting in Minsk June 23, reminding Uzbekistan of its
obligations to eliminate the need for visa for citizens of
Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Despite joining EurAsEC in January,
Uzbekistan has failed to implement many of the organization's
required policies.

TRAINS AND TRANSPORT


10. Vladimir Sotkalov, Deputy Chief, Tajik Railroad, told
Embassy staff that Uzbekistan holds up Tajik trains transiting
Uzbek territory. He pointed out that almost all trains are
detained in Uzbek territory for more than 5 hours, thus fully
changing the schedule. He added that the issue will be
discussed at the CIS Heads of Rail Roads meeting in Yerevan in
October.
HOAGLAND