AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON PRESIDENT RAHMONOV

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 DUSHANBE 001420

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR P, E, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS, DRL, S/P

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/24/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM PROP ECON EINV ENRG MARR KDEM IR
AF, CH, RS, TI
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S FAREWELL CALL ON PRESIDENT RAHMONOV


CLASSIFIED BY: Richard Hoagland, Ambassador, Exective Office,
Dept. of State.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) During the Ambassador's 90-minute one-on-one farewell
call with President Rahmonov July 19, the President spoke
without notes, because, we learned later, he had not expected a
working meeting. President Foreign Policy Adviser Erkin
Rahmatulloyev told us, "Generally, ambassadors come to say a
protocol good-bye, shake hands, and wonder what gift they'll
get. But, on the other hand, none of the others work like you
do. Except maybe [Russian Ambassador Ramazan] Adbulatipov, but
he usually comes to give us orders."




2. (C) The Ambassador



-- thanked the President for his productive partnership and
reviewed the key accomplishments of the last three years,
including major assistance for the Tajik Border Guards, the
Pyanzh Bridge under construction, a new U.S. Embassy completed
and occupied, and a major U.S. company involved in Tajikistan's
hydro-electric sector.



-- reviewed the investment climate and advocated for U.S.
businesses facing problems (Gerald Metals and Comsup);



-- advocated for a November presidential election that would
meet international standards, and suggested registering and
licensing new independent radio and television stations before
the election, including Asia-Plus TV;



-- explored the possibility of greater access by the U.S.
military to support the war against terrorism in Afghanistan; and



-- asked for Rahmonov's vision for Tajikistan five years from
now.




3. (C) Rahmonov thanked the Ambassador for the work he has done
during his tenure, noting it has left an "indelible mark" on
Tajikistan, and, especially on the bilateral relationship. He
said, "You know that anyone who matters reads and discusses
every word you publish." Rahmonov thanked President Bush for the
new attention and respect shown Tajikistan in the past three
years.



MILITARY COOPERATION




4. (C) Regarding increased access by U.S. and coalition forces
to Tajik military facilities, Rahmonov said he would repeat what
he told Secretary of Defense Rumsfled on July 10: "Tajikistan
will do whatever is in its power to support the war against

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extremism and terrorism. But," he noted, "this is not 2001. If
you had taken Kulob Airfield then, you would have it now. Don't
ever forget that the success of Manas depends on our blanket
clearance for your use of our air space. Today, we are in a
'spiderweb' of new international commitments and cannot make
unilateral decisions that violate those commitments." (COMMENT:
The means Russia has largely achieved control of it's sphere of
influence, unless we can think of creative ways out of this box.
END COMMENT.)




5. (C) Rahmonov said he is extremely grateful for U.S. military
assistance, notably for the National Guard, and especially for
the Tajik Border Guards - "They're young and need all the help
they can get. Even so, I intend to decrease the number of
Russian advisers. If they were truly helping, that would be
fine. But I'll tell you frankly I don't like what they are
doing."




6. (C) Musing about the U.S. presence in the region, Rahmonov
said, "You lost Karshi Khanabad in Uzbekistan. I simply do not
understand your internal bureaucracy. If Karimov was annoyed
with you and your presence was imperiled, why didn't you just
offer him a few major 'economic projects'?" (COMMENT: This
unscripted advice offers insight into how business is done in
this part of the world: you can buy your way out of any
problems. END COMMENT.)



RUSSIA




7. (C) Rahmonov lamented, "Every single thing we do without
permission irritates Russia." He said he's especially
exasperated by the continuing anti-Tajikistan Russian-media
propaganda campaign that seems to be geared to portraying
Tajikistan as a feckless narco-state harboring terrorists. He
added that Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are also involved in this
disinformation campaign about Tajikistan. (COMMENT: This is
the first we've heard Rahmonov complain about Kazakhstan on this
issue. He may have in mind the web site that
posts Russian disinformation and is reportedly Kazakhstan-based.
END COMMENT.)




8. (C) Rahmonov said the frequent meetings between Russian
President Putin and the other CIS presidents are coming to seem
like the old Soviet Politburo. He said, "I remind them at every
meeting the Politburo is gone. It's a new world." He repeated
heatedly, "It's a new world," then added, "but complicated.
Putin thinks he's the new General Secretary. That's why we need
reliable partners like the United States, but we don't have oil
and gas. To reduce Moscow's power over us, we need strong
economic and social development. That's why we need your help.
If we become stronger, we become more independent. We do not
want to be a 'toy' in anyone's hands. You tell us your views
very clearly, but you don't force or threaten us. And for that
I am grateful.




9. (C) About the new U.S. Embassy, Rahmonov said, "You are the
first to build a substantial, new embassy. Never underestimate

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the importance of symbols. It means a lot to us. Russia simply
took a 'dolgostroi' [an abandoned Soviet construction project]
and finished it, but it's already falling apart.



FOREIGN POLICY




10. (C) The President reaffirmed, at length, his "open-door"
foreign policy and his desire for multiple strong partners. "We
will not let Russia and China intimidate us." He expressed
gratitude for Washington's "objective and accurate
understanding" of and growing respect for Tajikistan.




11. (C) In an aside, Rahmonov said he gets annoyed with
European officials who call on him and "don't even know what
country they're in but tell us we must be like them. But we try
to take their views into consideration because we need multiple
European partners."



INTERNAL POLICY




12. "You can't force change," Rahmonov said, "but you can help
us achieve it." He elaborated that he wants greatly accelerated
economic development, an end to roads and especially railrods
that only go north, solutions for social problems and further
poverty reduction, less corruption, less labor migration, and a
strong democratic civil society so that people feel they are
part of the government. "But we must go slowly. Foreign
governments and their NGOs don't understand they cannot
replicate their own experiences here. It's essential to
understand the culture and respect the traditions of the people.
The fundamental mistake of the USSR was it didn't respect the
traditions of its peoples. Forcing change can lead to mistakes
and serious consequences." He paused and then added, "But we do
respect your views and try to take them into consideration." We
want to be a respected and exemplary country in a civilized
world. The United States is essential in the region."




13. Rahmonov declined to be drawn out on the November
presidential election. "It's too early. But if Rahmonov wins,"
he added using the third person, "Tajikistan's foreign policy
will not change in any dramatic way."



U.S. INVESTMENT AND WESTERN BUSINESS INTERESTS




14. The Ambassador explained that international legal cases
involving TadAz, as a result of the upheaval there in the second
half of 2004, are still causing concern for Western investors,
and will continue to inhibit major investment until the cases
are resolved. The Ambassador once again brought up the U.S.
company Gerald Metals, and elaborated on the U.S. political risk
re-insurer, Chubb, which had to pay out $125 million to Norsk
Hydro because of the TadAz mess. The Ambassador said, "Whoever
was mucking around at TadAz has seriously harmed Tajikistan's

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interests, especially because political risk insurers for major
investment are a very small club, and the TadAz mess is globally
known." The President nodded but had no reply.




15. The Ambassador noted that Dushanbe Mayor Mahmadsaid
Obaidulloyev is in the process of destroying the one and only
European-class restaurant in Dushanbe, La Grande Dame, that was
previously a favorite of Western diplomats, businessmen, and
potential investors. He told Rahmonov, "This may seem minor to
you, but it is totally crazy. Small things like this can have a
disproportionate impact on potential investors. They'll see it
as an example of chaotic risk, because the restaurant's owner,
an Australian citizen, had all the proper permission for her
investment and the construction of her business." Rahmonov
scowled, turned red, and banged the arm of his chair with his
fist, which was what we hoped would be the impact on him.
(COMMENT: Rahmonov has to walk a very fine line with the
Moscow-supported wildly corrupt mayor of Dushanbe, but it never
hurts to get Ramonov's dander up against Obaidulloyev. END
COMMENT.)



HYDRO-POWER




16. (C) Rahmonov advocated again that the United States take a
larger role in Tajikistan's hydro-energy sector. He said, "We
are sincerely grateful for what you did to get AES here, but we
want more U.S. active investment and involvement." He focused
on the proposed Dasht-i-Zhum dam and hydro-electric station on
the Pyanzh River between Tajikistan and Afghanistan. "This is
as strategic for Tajikistan, Afghanistan, and the region as the
Pyanzh Bridge. Like the bridge, it could be oxygen for the
region. Maybe the United States can't fund the entire project,
but I would like you to use your moral and economic power to
take the lead in the international community to get this built.
It is essential."



COMMENT




17. (C) We believe Rahmonov believes in his vision for
Tajikistan that includes a strong, democratic civil society.
But what he means and what we mean by those words are not
necessarily yet fully congruent. His constant emphasis on the
need to respect the culture and traditions of the country is not
wholly just a blow-you-off excuse for his vested-interest
go-slow approach on these issues. Tajikistan is in a very tough
geographical and ideological neighborhood. Internally, he still
has many political enemies, like Obaidulloyev. And, certainly,
Rahmonov is a product of his place and time. But he is a shrewd
and increasingly sophisticated player who sort of gets what we
say. We need continually to nudge, but not try to shove, him in
the right direction.




18. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: Rahmonov was pleasant,
complimentary, relaxed, and confident. He sported a new light
gray summer suit from his personal tailor at Brioni who flies in
from Italy about every six months. We are pleased he allowed 90
minutes for the meeting, especially if he had been expecting

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only 10-15 minutes. This is a busy time for him. Besides the
normal flow of business, the election is looming, July 21-22 he
was in Moscow for the informal CIS "Summer Horse Race Summit,"
and July 25-27 Iran's President Amadinejad will be in Dushanbe.
Rahmonov told us he expects the Chinese Prime Minister for an
official visit September 15. END COMMENT.




19. Kabul minimized considered.
HOAGLAND