PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER ON TAJIK-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, UZBEKISTAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DUSHANBE 001013

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR P, E, SCA/FO, SCA/CEN, EUR/RUS
NSC FOR MILLARD, MERKEL
MANILA PLEASE PASS TO ADB-AMB. SPELTZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/31/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER PINR ECON EINV ENRG UZ RS TI
SUBJECT: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISER ON TAJIK-RUSSIAN RELATIONS, UZBEKISTAN


CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



CLASSIFIED BY: Richard E. Hoagland, Ambassador, EXEC, Embassy
Dushanbe.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (C) SUMMARY: Although they met ostensibly for Presidential
Adviser Rahmatulloyev to give a read-out of the Putin-Rahmonov
meeting in Sochi, Rahmatulloyev, clearly authorized by President
Rahmonov, spent much of the 90-minute meeting laying out
Tajikistan's exasperation with Russia and Uzbekistan. He said,
"We reject 19th-century great games." The Ambassador reiterated
his invitation for President Rahmonov to cut the ribbon June 28
at Embassy Dushanbe's New Embassy Compound, and delivered orally
Washington's reply to President Rahmonov's request for bilateral
debt relief. END SUMMARY


2. (C) The Ambassador, at his request, met with Presidential
Foreign Policy Adviser Erkin Rahmatulloyev on May 30 for a
read-out of President Rahmonov's May 27 meeting with Russian
President Putin in Sochi. During the pre-substance banter, the
Ambassador noted it had been quite a while since they had met,
because the U.S.-Tajik relationship has been on an even keel.
The Ambassador assured Rahmatulloyev he had no new problems to
raise. Rahmatulloyev responded quite seriously, "But we have a
big problem, and I'll tell you about it."


3. (C) The Ambassador observed the press accounts of the
Rahmonov-Putin meeting had seemed mundane, even restrained.
However, the Ambassador said, he knew from three recent
encounters with President Rahmonov in as many weeks that
Rahmonov was quite irritated with aspects of the Tajik-Russian
relationship. Rahmatulloyev said, "That's the problem I want to
tell you about."


4. (C) Rahmatulloyev said the Sochi meeting had been
"constructive," even "very constructive." However, two years
after Oleg Deripaska's RusAl had signed agreements to build the
Rogun dam and hydroelectric station and to upgrade the Tajik
Aluminum Plant (TadAZ) as well as to consider a new aluminum
plant, the only project RusAl has concretely begun is
construction of the new Hyatt Hotel in Dushanbe. On the other
had, current problems at Sangtuda-1 dam and hydroenegy station
with Russian energy monopoly RAO UES are simply the kinds of
glitches to be expected on any project of that size, and
President Rahmonov is satisfied with RAO UES and its chairman
Anatoliy Chubais. (C)OMMENT: As we wee it, not all glitches
are technical. The Russian government was repoertedly planning
to fund 100 percent of Sangtuda-1, but now RAO UES is working
with the World Bank to secure international funding. END
COMMENT.)


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THAT DAMN DAM


5. (C) Rahmonov is especially exasperated with RusAl because
the Rogun project was envisioned to provide reliable power to
Tajikistan and enough to export to Afghanistan and Pakistan.
RusAl, however, seems to see Rogun as its private domain to
supply just enough power for its supposed aluminum interests in
Tajikistan, primarily TadAZ.


6. (C) RusAl insists that Tajikistan accept a lower, concrete
dam at Rogun, rather than the planned higher earth-fill dam,
like the successful one already in place at Nurek.
Rahmatulloyev noted that Tajik and international seismologists
worry that a concrete dam would be prone to structural failure
in earthquake-prone Tajikistan, whereas Nurek has withstood
significant seismic activity for over 20 years. RusAl
commissioned the German consulting firm Lahmeyer to study the
project, and Lahmeyer recommended the lower, concrete dam.
Rahmatulloyev noted RusAl "paid the piper and picked the tune."
He added even Lahmeyer has since admitted that a concrete dam
does not make sense for the project, but that's what it was paid
to recommend. Rahmatulloyev added an earth-fill dam would begin
to clear a profit in five to seven years, whereas a concrete dam
would take three times as long to become profitable. He said
President Rahmonov has ordered an independent study by the World
Bank of the two alternatives - concrete or earth-fill - with the
longer-term view of attracting an international consortium to
build Rogun.

TAJIKISTAN, AN UZBEK OBLAST?


7. (C) With Rogun a potential plus for the region and
potentially profitable for Russia, why aren't the trucks rolling
into Tajikistan with construction equipment and supplies? In a
word, according to Rahmatulloyev, Uzbekistan. He alleged that
President Karimov, in his most recent meeting with Putin in
Sochi, warned Putin he would do everything in his power to
prevent Tajikistan from "holding the key" to energy and water in
the region. Karimov supposedly vowed to prevent any goods and
supplies related to Rogun's construction from passing through
Uzbekistan to reach Tajikistan. Rahmatulloyev commented, "That
is another reason why the U.S.-funded Pyanzh Bridge is so
vitally important. It will provide an alternative to get
construction supplies and equipment into Tajikistan." According
to Rahmatulloyev, President Rahmonov believes Russia, in its
myopic quest to maximize Uzbekistan's turn to Moscow, will do
anything to satisfy Karimov, including accept Karimov's
conditions on Tajik hydropower. Rahmatulloyev said, "We
believee this new relationship is at our expense." He urged the
Ambassador to make this situation known in Washington so that
the United States could consider playing a role to broker a
solution. The Ambassador promised to pass the message, but
noted, given current geopolitics, there is little we can do at
this time with Uzbekistan and even with Russia.


8. (C) In response to a question, Rahmatulloyev acknowledged
Tajikistan has suspicions, though no concrete evidence,
Uzbekistan could have staged the May 12 Tajik-Kyrgyz border
posts attack that killed several Tajik border guards. Why?
Uzbekistan joined the Eurasian Economic Community (EEC) in
January and must by June 1 accede to the EEC's requirements for
member states of visa-free transit, demined borders, and the
free transit of goods. In Rahmatulloyev's view, Uzbekistan has
no intention of implementing those provisions with Tajikistan

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(or any other Uzbek neighbor),and a "well-timed terrorist
attack" could give Karimov the excuse to wiggle out of his
commitments.


9. (C) Even if this turns out not to be true, Rahmatulloyev
pointed out, Uzbekistan still harbors and supports former Tajik
coup-plotter Colonel Khudoberdiyev and his 1,400 armed men - all
of whom receive official Uzbek support, identity documents, and
protection. Rahmatulloyev said President Rahmonov had laid out
the situation in great detail for President Putin, who did not
respond. Rahmatulloyev asked heatedly, "How can we talk about
regional cooperation and security with this impossible person
[Karimov]? Why does his National Security Service run these
[Khudoberdiyev] camps against us?" He answered himself
sarcastically, "Karimov sees Tajikistan as a future Uzbek
oblast!"

"WE DON"T WANT RUSSIA'S 19TH-CENTURY GREAT GAME"


10. (C) The Ambassador asked about press reports Putin in Sochi
had promised Rahmonov new material assistance for the Tajik
Border Guards (TBG). Rahmatulloyev responded, "Putin
'promised,' but he's promised before. We'll see." He recounted
that last year Putin, in Rahmonov's presence, had ordered the
Russian Border Force during its final pull-out from the
Tajik-Afghan border to leave behind eight helicopters for the
TBG. "But it was never implemented. In the end, the Russians
left two of their oldest helicopters that aren't airworthy for
mountain flying," Rahmatulloyev said with evident disgust. He
added, "And now Russia continues to portray us as incapable of
controlling our borders."


11. (C) Rahmatulloyev said Rahmonov was highly irritated Russia
had tried to scuttle Central Asian participation in the recent
U.S.-organized international counter-narcotics conference in
Dushanbe. The Ambassador agreed Russia's attempt to undercut
the conference had no logic, given the impact of Afghan
narcotics on Russia itself. Rahmatulloyev said the Tajik side
had been advised in advance Putin would raise this issue in
Sochi, "but he was wise enough to have avoided it."
Rahmatulloyev characterized Russian and Uzbek attitudes as
"19th-century great-game playing." He emphasized Tajikistan
wants pragmatic relations, "not games," with key players.


12. (C) The Ambassador responded we understand it is difficult
for Tajikistan, but see President Rahmonov's "open-door foreign
policy" as a success. He reiterated U.S. policy has remained
consistent - adamant support for Tajikistan's independence and
sovereignty. He added, "No one wants to see Tajikistan as a
'Russian oblast.'"

INVITATION FOR RAHMONOV TO CUT THE NEC RIBBON


13. (C) The Ambassador noted the Embassy had sent a
diplomatic-note request and that he himself had personally asked
Rahmonov to cut the ribbon for the Embassy Dushanbe NEC on June

28. He added we would understand if Rahmonov decided "political
constraints" would make that too difficult for him.
Rahmatulloyev remembered Rahmonov had promised three years ago
to participate in the ribbon-cutting ceremony if the United
States ever completed its new Embassy. He undertook to remind
Rahmonov of that promise.

U.S. DEBT RELIEF FOR TAJIKISTAN

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14. (C) As agreed by e-mail with SCA/CEN, the Ambassador
delivered an oral response to President Rahmonov's letter to
President Bush requesting forgiveness of Tajikistan $18 million
bilateral debt. Rahmatulloyev quipped, "I used to think Soviet
bureaucracy was 'the best' in the world. I now see yours is
even 'better'!"


15. (C) COMMENT: We know that even the most senior officials
like Rahmatulloyev check in with President Rahmonov for marching
orders before they meet with the Ambassador. We have known
Rahmonov is increasingly irritated with Russia, and it is clear
he authorized Rahmatulloyev to tell us at least some of what is
on his mind, if not all that transpired in Sochi. The stormy
Tajik-Russian relationship is on rough waves right now, in part
because of the Moscow-Tashkent love-fest - or at least
short-term convergence of interests. By contrast, the
U.S.-Tajikistan relationship is an even-keeled voyage of
promises kept by both sides, for the most part. On-going reform
by the Tajik government and responsive U.S. humanitarian,
development, and security assistance has resulted in the kind of
open relationship of trust that allows the Ambassador to spend a
frank and cordial 90 minutes with one of Rahmonov's most senior
advisers. It is clear Tajikistan values its no-drama,
no-surprises relationship with the United States. END COMMENT.
HOAGLAND