Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUBLIN312
2006-03-27 11:51:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dublin
Cable title:  

GOVERNMENTS WILL RECALL NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER EI UK 
pdf how-to read a cable
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O 271151Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY DUBLIN
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 6678
INFO RUEHZL/EUROPEAN POLITICAL COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHBL/AMCONSUL BELFAST PRIORITY 0329
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000312 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EI UK
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENTS WILL RECALL NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY
MAY 15


DUBLIN 00000312 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DCM JONATHAN BENTON FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D

-------------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
-------------------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBLIN 000312

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/24/2011
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER EI UK
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENTS WILL RECALL NORTHERN IRELAND ASSEMBLY
MAY 15


DUBLIN 00000312 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: DCM JONATHAN BENTON FOR REASONS 1.4 B AND D

--------------
SUMMARY AND COMMENT
--------------

1. (C) On March 23, Michael Collins, the Taoiseach's senior
foreign affairs advisor, briefed Ambassador Kenny on next
steps in the peace process, and thanked the President for a
productive Saint Patrick's Day. He said that the Taoiseach
and PM Blair plan to issue a joint statement April 6 in
Armagh, Northern Ireland, in which they will say that they
are recalling the Northern Ireland Assembly on May 15.
According to Collins, the proposals they will make seek to
meet some of the concerns of DUP and Sinn Fein while adhering
to the Good Friday Agreement. The May date is designed to
meet Sinn Fein's desire to have the Assembly up and running
before the marching season begins; the proposal to give the
Assembly a second chance in November to elect an executive if
they fail to do so in May is a sop to the DUP, which has
wanted a longer "probationary" period for Sinn Fein before
entering government with it. The prime ministers also will
suggest that they will dissolve the assembly and launch "Plan
B" if the parties fail to elect an executive by the end of
November. Collins said that USG help is needed to push
parties to participate. The two governments are aware that
DUP might refuse to take its seats and that Sinn Fein might
consider "Plan B" a better option, in which HMG and GOI would
take over decisionmaking. Collins also asked if the USG
could help organize an investment conference for Northern
Ireland, which would complement the political initiative and
give parties hope. End Summary

2.(C) Comment: The two governments are sincere in their
desire to get the assembly up and running in 2006. Both
rightly worry about the effect on the ground of a long
stalemate and both have their own political positions in
mind, with elections in Ireland in 2007 and continuing
discussion of the length of Blair's tenure. These factors
galvanize the governments, and they might indeed follow

through this time. However, both governments have a tendency
of backing down when the parties object to their plans.
Irish papers already carry stories that nationalists are not
crazy about the plan. Similarly, as colleagues in Belfast
have reported, Ian Paisley and his DUP are showing no desire
to govern with the nationalists and seem to be trying to wait
out Blair. We would agree with the governments that a
prolonged stalemate is untennable, especially after the IRA's
historic decommissioning and indications that loyalist
paramilitaries are considering laying down their arms. The
hard men need to see that politics is delivering them
something and that they were right to lay down arms. The USG
can be helpful in shoring up the governments, should they
waver; in working with Sinn Fein and DUP to give this new
plan a chance; and in supporting an economic conference.
Like us, the Irish, are concerned about the on-again,
off-again, nature of the UK's attempts to organize a
conference, and share our belief that the conference must be
cross-border and all-island in order to succeed. End Comment.

--------------
Recalling the Northern Ireland Assembly
--------------


3. (C) The draft statement the prime ministers plan to issue
April 6 opens by noting that this is a "momentous stage" in
the history of Northern Ireland, now that the IRA has
decommissioned and the IMC has assessed that the IRA "no
longer represents a terrorist threat." It then sets out a
timetable and practical framework for moving forward in order
to build trust and avoid the dangers of a political vacuum.
The governments would recall the Northern Ireland assembly on
May 15 for a period of six weeks, ask them to elect a first
and second minister as soon as possible and to allocate
prospective ministerial posts under the d'Hondt formula
within seven days of its first meeting. The governments are
not optimistic that the assembly will succeed in doing this
in six weeks and so are building in a "second chance." After
the summer recess, they would allow the assembly another 12
weeks to form an executive.

--------------
Plan B
--------------


4. (C) The governments plan to say that if an executive is
not formed by the end of November, they will defer
restoration of all of the institutions, cancel elections to
the assembly and cancel salaries and allowances of MLAs. The
governments would then aggressively implement all other areas
of the agreement, including North-South and East-West

DUBLIN 00000312 002.2 OF 002


arrangements, policing, human rights, and equality and
victims' issues. Essentially the threat of Plan B is that
the Northern Ireland parties would lose the chance to govern
themselves for now and would see Ireland playing a much
bigger role in decisions. Plan B is thus designed primarily
to jolt DUP. Currently, the governments think DUP believes
that its refusal to govern with Sinn Fein maintains the
status quo and DUP likes the status quo. The governments want
to show DUP that they actually have much to lose if they
continue in their obstinance. The danger is that Sinn Fein
has always seen the chance to govern in Northern Ireland as a
stepping stone to the larger goal of a united Ireland. They
could see Plan B as a good option because it increases
Ireland's role, contributes to the "greening" of the whole
island, and frees them to focus their efforts on increasing
their power in the Republic.

--------------
U.S. Role
--------------


5. (C) Collins asked the ambassador if the U.S. would help
encourage the parties to give the initiative a chance. He is
concerned that, despite the governments' efforts to come up
with a plan that takes into account some concerns of each
party, the parties will focus on what they do not like and
not give the plan a chance. He also asked whether the USG
could jump start the long-discussed economic conference for
Northern Ireland. Amb Kenny suggested the U.S. host an
organizational meeting with representatives of the three
governments, to be followed by a second organizational
meeting with parties. The ultimate goal would be an economic
conference in the autumn. Collins thought this approach
would be very helpful. He talked about the economic need in
Northern Ireland and the positive effect an economic
conference could have on the political situation. Sinn
Fein/IRA and the loyalists all need to see some hope on the
horizon. There is grumbling in the nationalist community
because some feel that their act of decommissioning did not
deliver the political progress they had expected. Among
loyalist paramilitaries considering disarming, there is
concern about high unemployment rates among poor protestants.
They, too, are most likely to give politics a chance if they
see benefits on the ground.



KENNY