PRE-GAERC RESPONSE: IRELAND NOT CONSIDERING BALKAN

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBLIN 000277

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/31/2015
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD EUN YI MW SR BK BO IR
IZ, SU, CY, TU, EU, EI
SUBJECT: PRE-GAERC RESPONSE: IRELAND NOT CONSIDERING BALKAN
INCENTIVES OR IRAN SANCTIONS

REF: A. STATE 39905


B. STATE 16987

C. YOUNG-MOWREY E-MAIL OF MARCH 13

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Jonathan Benton; Reasons
1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) Summary: On March 15, Post delivered ref A and B
demarche points to Jim Kelly, Department of Foreign Affairs
(DFA) EU Correspondent. Regarding the Balkans, Kelly said
that Member States would respect the electorate's chosen
outcome in the Montenegrin referendum, but had not begun to
develop incentives for Belgrade and Pristina in support of
Kosovo's final status process. On the Doha negotiations, the
GOI doubted that the April deadline for defining modalities
on manufactured and agricultural goods would be met. Kelly
cited the GOI,s continuing difficulties in identifying
reconstruction projects to fund in Iraq amid continuing
sectarian violence, and he noted that Ireland and Member
States were not ready to consider national measures against
Iran outside the EU-3 process. Similarly, the GOI had not
begun to consider the possibility of UNSC sanctions for
Sudan. Kelly was unfamiliar with the Commission's
responsibilities for electricity generation in Liberia, but
he highlighted Ireland's continuing strong interest in the
country, with 430 Irish troops participating in UNMIL. End
summary.

Kosovo
--------------


2. (C) Member States recognize the central role to be played
by the EU in Kosovo after a political settlement, but have
not yet begun to develop specific incentives for Belgrade and
Pristina in support of the status talks, said Kelly.
Planning for the EU presence in Kosovo following the status
outcome, he noted, was already underway at the EU Council
Secretariat level. Kelly also recounted that UN Special

SIPDIS
Envoy Ahtisaari had positively assessed the status process at
the March 10-11 Gymnich. While Ahtisaari did not
underestimate remaining challenges, he underscored that the
Contact Group had instilled a sense of realism among the
parties involved.

Montenegro
--------------


3. (C) With parameters now agreed for Montenegro's
referendum, the EU is prepared to support any outcome chosen
by the electorate, said Kelly. He praised EU High
Representative Lajcak's successful "high-wire act" in
bringing all parties to agreement on the referendum's ground
rules. He added that the GOI, like the USG, regarded
complaints about the possibility of a "gray zone" vote as
counterproductive.

Bosnia
--------------


4. (C) Kelly recalled that Milosevic's March 11 death,
tellingly, had no measurable impact on the Gymnich
discussions between EU ministers and Balkan ministers the
same day. He observed that whereas five years ago such news
would have disrupted the meeting, the Balkan interlocutors on
March 11 continued along with discussion of workaday issues,
such as visa facilitation. The fact that so little was said
about the death at the meeting reflected, for Kelly, the
parties, focus on the future and their willingness to
consign Milosevic to history.

WTO
---


5. (C) On the WTO, Kelly referred emboff to Donal Kelly, DFA
Deputy Director of EU External Relations, who reiterated
familiar GOI comments that agriculture remained a sensitive
sector for Ireland. He noted that Ireland was nevertheless
not a "one-issue" country and that the GOI hoped to see
simultaneous progress on the agriculture, services, and NAMA
components of the Doha negotiations. Kelly cited a recent
statement by Prime Minister Ahern expressing support for
Agriculture Minister Coughlan's approach to the Doha talks.
(Per ref C, Ahern's statement called for equal treatment of
all forms of farm subsidies, "maximum protection" for Irish
agricultural producers and exporters, and maintenance of the
CAP reform limits.) Kelly added his personal view that the
April deadline for defining modalities on manufacture and
agricultural goods would not be met, notwithstanding the EU's
stated intention of working toward that goal. He also said
that the GAERC would probably not issue conclusions on the

Doha negotiations.

Iran
--------------


6. (C) Ireland and Member States wish to continue to address
the Iranian nuclear issue through the EU-3 process and are
not at the stage of considering national measures against
Tehran, according to Kelly. Ireland, he elaborated, was
content with current arrangements for the EU-3 to speak for
Member States, an approach that proved effective in bringing
Iran to the UNSC. Kelly mentioned that Ireland and most
Member States, however, favored a broader EU strategic
engagement with Iran, to include interaction on Tehran's poor
human rights record. He also reiterated previous
observations that DFA communication with the Iranian embassy
in Dublin was complicated by the recall of the former Iranian
ambassador for suspicious personal financial activities.

Iraq
--------------


7. (C) The GOI is pleased with the EU statement condemning
the Samarra mosque bombing and will not make an independent
statement, said Kelly. In terms of Irish assistance to Iraq,
he cited difficulties in disbursing the remaining half of a
euro 3 million commitment to EU reconstruction efforts.
Repeating comments in previous GAERC demarches, Kelly
explained that continued sectarian violence complicated the
GOI,s efforts to identify viable reconstruction projects for
funding. He added, however, that the violence underscored
the need for long-term international support of the Iraqi
government.

Sudan
--------------


8. (C) The EU has invested heavily in the African Union
Mission in Sudan (AMIS) and hopes to see the mission function
effectively on the path to a UN re-hatting, according to
Kelly. The GOI understood that AMIS would continue for six
months, with a subsequent re-hatting in the context of a
settlement among the Abuja parties. Regarding ref A's
reference to targeted UNSC sanctions, Kelly said that the GOI
had not begun to consider "where sanctions might fit into the
process." He predicted that the GAERC conclusions would
include strong criticism of the Sudanese Government, but that
the ministers, discussions might not encompass the sanctions
option.

Liberia
--------------


9. (C) Kelly said that he was unfamiliar with the
Commission's responsibilities on electricity generation in
Liberia, but he committed to forward this demarche point to
Irish Aid (the new name for Development Cooperation Ireland,
the development agency within DFA). Kelly noted that Irish
Aid could take up the issue with the European Development
Fund Committee, which he believed was the locus of Commission
development efforts on Liberia. He pointed out that Ireland
had strong interests in Liberia, with 430 Irish troops
participating in UNMIL. Regarding UNSYG Annan's recent
request for Ireland to extend its participation to June 2007,
Kelly pointed out that the mission had been previously
extended and that Ireland would have to coordinate with
Sweden, a UNMIL partner. He also highlighted the risk of
over-stretch, as Ireland was considering a possible UN
mission in the Congo.

Cyprus
--------------


10. (C) The Irish Government has not formed an official view
on Turkey's January 24 proposal, besides welcoming the
gesture, commented Kelly. He said that Ireland and other
Member States were focused on UNSYG Annan's reaction to the
proposal, since, as noted in ref B points, the UN offered the
most appropriate framework for resolution of the Cyprus
dispute. He added that the GOI had long supported Turkey's
EU candidacy and now saw the Turkish proposal as the first
evidence of the potential of the accession process for
Turkish-Cypriot relations.


BENTON