Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUBLIN1044
2006-09-08 13:30:00
UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY
Embassy Dublin
Cable title:  

IRELAND'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER RESIGNS

Tags:  PREL PGOV EI 
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UNCLAS DUBLIN 001044 

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER RESIGNS
UNEXPECTEDLY


UNCLAS DUBLIN 001044

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL PGOV EI
SUBJECT: IRELAND'S DEPUTY PRIME MINISTER RESIGNS
UNEXPECTEDLY



1. (U) On September 7, Ireland's first female Deputy Prime
Minister (Tanaiste),Mary Harney, unexpectedly resigned as
leader of the Progressive Democrats (PD) party, the
center-right, minor partner in the governing coalition led by
the Fianna Fail party. Harney had been PD leader for nearly
13 years and had held the Tanaiste's post for the past 9,
during which time she also served successively as Minister
for Enterprise, Trade, and Employment and, during the past 2
years, as Minister for Health and Children. Her resignation
followed upon a public row in early summer with PD colleague
and Minister for Justice, Equality, and Law Reform, Michael
McDowell, who had pushed for Harney to stand aside as party
leader. Harney, however, had appeared to consolidate her
hold on the party mantle during a PD parliamentary meeting in
late June that positioned her to lead the party into the
expected spring/summer 2007 general elections.


2. (U) In announcing her resignation, Harney said that she
had not been pressured to step down, and she noted her
intention to run again for her Dublin-area parliamentary seat
in the upcoming campaign. She also expressed her intention
to retain her position as Health Minister, subject to the
consent of the Prime Minister (Taoiseach) Bertie Ahern and
new PD leader, who will become Tanaiste. Nominations for
candidates to stand in the yet unscheduled PD leadership
election are due September 11, with Justice Minister McDowell
the presumptive front-runner.


3. (U) Harney's decision fostered heavy speculation as to
the implications of her resignation for the governing
coalition. Prime Minister Ahern told the press that he would
seek immediate assurances from the new PD leader to remain in
government with Fianna Fail up to the elections, completing
the coalition's five-year term. (Of the Parliament's 166
seats, the PDs have 8 seats, compared to Fianna Fail's 77;
under an earlier electoral pact with Fianna Fail, the PDs
have been given the Tanaiste's slot, two cabinet minister
positions, and two minister of state (junior minister)
posts.) In remarks to the press, McDowell promised to
announce shortly his intentions as to the party leadership,
and he praised Harney as the "most spectacularly successful
employment minister in Western Europe." Labour Party leader
Pat Rabbitte commented to the press, however, that Harney's
departure had left the PD party a "dysfunctional minor
partner in Government" and that the country should fear the
consequences of McDowell becoming Tanaiste.


4. (SBU) Comment: Harney, who, at 24, was the youngest
person ever to serve in the Irish Senead (Senate) and is a
strongly pro-American former participant in the International
Visitors Program, resigned most likely out of fatigue and in
the interests of strengthening the PDs ahead of the 2007
elections. Ireland's troubled health care system is
conspicuously out of step with the country's rapid economic
rise, and, in her position as Health Minister, Harney has
faced bureaucratic resistance and public criticism in her
largely unsuccessful attempts to address the system's
inadequacies. Relinquishing the PD leadership and Tanaiste
duties will enable Harney to focus more on her health
portfolio ahead of the 2007 election campaign, in which
health system issues will loom large. Her resignation also
likely reflected her desire to re-energize the PD party
before the election campaign begins in earnest. Several
polls since January have predicted that PD candidates will
only secure three percent of the vote, and these anemic
numbers underpinned Minister McDowell's push for Harney's
resignation in early summer. As the party's driving
intellectual force and most colorful figure, McDowell is
probably the party's best remaining hope to enlarge
membership and to improve upon its polling numbers. Licensed
betting shops already have McDowell as the favorite to
succeed Harney, well ahead of PD parliamentarian Liz
O'Donnell. A key question, however, is how well Prime
Minister Ahern would be able to work with the outspoken,
sometimes divisive McDowell in carrying forward the
coalition's program of government through the remainder of
its term.
BENTON