RAS AL KHAIMAH SHEIKH DISCUSSES ELECTIONS, FREE TRADE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBAI 006940

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/7/2016
TAGS: ECIN ECON PGOV SOCI KDEM AE
SUBJECT: RAS AL KHAIMAH SHEIKH DISCUSSES ELECTIONS, FREE TRADE
AGREEMENT AND IRAN/IRAQ

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CLASSIFIED BY: Paul R Sutphin, Consul General, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1.(C) SUMMARY. On December 4, Ras al-Khaimah (RAK) economic
department director Sheikh Mohamad bin Qayid al-Qasimi told
poleconoff that he saw no value in the upcoming Federal National
Council (FNC) election, as none of the candidates have the
experience needed to govern. He stated that he opposes a
U.S.-UAE FTA agreement because he believes UAE businesses would
not be competitive without protection. Al-Qasimi also expressed
his concern over the threat Iran poses to Iraq, and the need for
continued US efforts to stabilize Iraq. End summary.

2.(C) Sheikh Mohamad bin Qiyad al-Qasimi discussed a number of
topics with poleconoff on December 4. He is the well-connected
first cousin of Sheikh Saud bin Saqr al-Qasimi, the Crown Prince
and de facto ruler of RAK. (Note: Sheikh Saud's father, Sheikh
Saqr, remains RAK's official ruler but is very old and
incapacitated.)

Federal National Council Elections
--------------

3.(C) Al-Qasimi sees no value in the FNC election in RAK (FNC
voting is staggered among the seven Emirates over three polling
days, with Dubai and RAK voting on December 18). He believes
that none of the candidates understand politics or have the
necessary experience to govern effectively. He opined that it
would take 20 to 30 years before the FNC would be capable of
exercising power. (Note: as constituted, the 40-member FNC is an
advisory body only.)

4.(C) No members of the al-Qasimi, the ruling family of RAK, are
running in FNC election. Sheikh Mohamad said that since half of
the FNC members from RAK are appointed by the ruler, there is no
need for any al-Qasimi to run.

5.(C) The main streets of RAK were festooned with campaign
banners for a number of candidates for the FNC. Poleconoff has
not observed similar campaigning in any of the other northern
Emirates. When asked to comment on the campaign activity,
al-Qasimi said that one benefit of the elections is that they
make the people "feel good." (Comment: it is clear that the
enthusiasm for voting in RAK is genuine, even with an election
featuring a limited number of appointed electors voting for a
body with no legislative power. But given the public interest
generated, at least in RAK, the FNC exercise is a useful one in
engaging the public on the path to true representative
government. End Comment.)

US-UAE Free Trade Agreement
--------------

6.(C) Al-Qasimi is not in favor of a US-UAE Free Trade Agreement
(FTA). He said that if a FTA is signed, the UAE's economic
activity would increase, but at the expense of UAE businesses.
Al-Qasimi likened the negotiations as a mature adult, the US,
coercing a 12 year old, the UAE, to enter into a long-term
agreement. Al-Qasimi believes UAE businesses are incapable of
competing against US (and other international firms) without
protection.

Iraq and U.S. Foreign Policy
--------------

7.(C) Al-Qasimi's major concern in Iraq is the threat posed by
Iran. He said Iran does not want a stable, unified Iraq and that
the US must seal Iraq's border with Iran. He claims that four
million Iranians are now living in Iraq, and that they now claim
to be Iraqis. In addition, he believes the current Iraqi
leadership is acting on Iran's behalf, but he did not elaborate.

8.(C) Al-Qasimi stated that Turkey, Syria, Jordan, and Saudi
Arabia benefit politically and economically from the continuing
conflict and are not actively trying to stop the war. He was
unable to offer examples of how these states benefit from the
conflict. He stated Israel wants the conflict to continue as
well, because as long as the media is focused on Iraq, Israel
can use its military against the Palestinians without much
international scrutiny.

9.(C) Al-Qasimi said that the situation in Iraq and the US's
"blind support" for Israel has hurt the image of the US amongst
the Arabs, but that a sudden pullout from Iraq would be
catastrophic for the region. He emphasized that the US must act
in its national interest, i.e. continue its security efforts in

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Iraq, despite the cost in US lives and treasure.
SUTPHIN