Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUBAI6903
2006-11-30 15:47:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Consulate Dubai
Cable title:  

FORMER SECRETARY POWELL AND UAE VICE PRESIDENT/DUBAI RULER

Tags:  PREL IZ IR IS KPAL AE 
pdf how-to read a cable
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PP RUEHBC RUEHDIR RUEHKUK RUEHROV
DE RUEHDE #6903/01 3341547
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P R 301547Z NOV 06
FM AMCONSUL DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4925
RUEHZM/GCC C COLLECTIVE
RUEHXK/ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
INFO RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 7958
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DUBAI 006903

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/30/2016
TAGS: PREL IZ IR IS KPAL AE
SUBJECT: FORMER SECRETARY POWELL AND UAE VICE PRESIDENT/DUBAI RULER
DISCUSS REGIONAL CONFLICTS AND FUTURE OPPORTUNITIES

DUBAI 00006903 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Paul R. Sutphin, Consul General, US Consulate
General Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



(1) (C) Summary: In Dubai November 29 to deliver the closing
address to the Leaders in Dubai conference, former Secretary of
State Colin Powell also met with UAE Vice President, Prime
Minister and Dubai Ruler Mohammed bin Rashid al Maktoum (MbR)
and visited senior executives of Dubai's landmark Heathcare City
project (septel). MbR told Powell he was optimistic in the
long run regarding Iraq, but that the situation would likely be
worse in the near future with many more people dying before
stability is achieved. Voicing no particular concern about the
Iranian nuclear program, he urged the US to pursue talks with
Iran and strongly cautioned against military action. He also
underscored that a solution to the Israel/Palestinian problem
remains a key to regional reform and progress. He would "work
with Israel tomorrow" if there were a settlement. Powell
cautioned about Iran's intention to weaponize its nuclear
program, agreed on the centrality of a settlement between the
Palestinians and Israelis to regional progress, and said the
situation in Iraq met his definition of a "civil war" (a line he
echoed in his speech to the Leaders conference). But he
underscored that the important thing isn't what you call the
conflict, it's what you do about it - and the solution must be
an Iraqi solution, with ongoing US support. MbR agreed a hasty
US pullout would have dire consequences. End Summary.

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MbR: Ever the Optimist, despite Concerns in the Region
-------------- --------------
--------------


2. (SBU) Secretary Powell was accompanied by the Ambassador and
Consul General; a number of key Dubai players sat in with MbR,
including his son Shekh Hamdan, General Directorate for State
Security head al Qemzi, federal Minister for Cabinet Affairs
(and MbR confidante) Mohammed Gergawi and EMAAR holdings head
Mohammed Alabar. The meeting opened with a discussion of

Dubai's headlong rush toward further development. MbR told
Powell that despite the range of real challenges in the region,
he remained optimistic about a better future for Dubai, the UAE
and the Gulf , "otherwise, why get out of bed in the morning?"
He noted that a smaller percentage of his vision for Dubai has
been achieved now than when he was asked the same question three
years ago - "this is because my vision for Dubai is always
growing." Powell agreed on the importance of looking beyond
current conflicts toward future opportunities, noting that no
one could have imagined only a few years ago that the US
relations would be where they are now with China and India.

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Iraq: Worse before it's Better
--------------


3.(C) Turning to Iraq, MbR said he was also optimistic that the
situation would stabilize eventually for the better. But he
thought the situation would worsen in the short term, and that
"many may need to die" before it takes a turn for the better.
He referred to the current government in Iraq disparagingly,
noting it was loaded with "crooks." Powell said security was
the key to development, and he regretted the decision to disband
the Iraqi army, which was taken without "sufficient
consulation." This had undermined the security situation -
building an effective army could not happen overnight. He said
key to improving the security situation would be to have a
government and a military that "believed in each other." One of
Iraqi PM al Maliki's key problems is that the security services
in Iraq do not trust his government. Echoing themes he would
use later in his address to the Leaders in Dubai conference, he
said the situation in Iraq met his definition of a civil war,
but that the important thing isn't what you call the conflict,
it's what you do about it. The solution to Iraq's security
problem must be an Iraqi solution, but the US must continue to
support the Iraqis until they have the capability needed to do
the job themselves. MbR agreed a hasty US pullout would have
dire consequences for the region.

--------------
Iran: Talking beats Bombing
--------------

4.(C) On Iran, MbR strongly cautioned against taking military
action, noting "Iran will make serious trouble in Iraq,
Afghanistan, the Straits of Hormuz" and with terror in
reaction. MbR indicated he was not overly concerned with Iran's

DUBAI 00006903 002.2 OF 002


nuclear program, as there was in his view no real way to stop it
given the spread of technology. Rather, He said the USG should
talk to them and persuade them to move away from their current
path of confrontation. Powell said no sensible senior US
leader he knew - and he knows many-is seriously considering a
military strike, but that there is deep concern about Iran's
intent to pursue a nuclear weapon, despite its rhetoric about
seeking only civilian nuclear power. He made clear "the
Iranians have given us reason to believe" they are after weapons
rather than simply electrical power in their nuclear program.
He said that while he personally thought Iran was "years away"
from being able to make a nuclear weapon, the US remains gravely
concerned about the situation and should be engaging Iran
directly about it.

-------------- --------------
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A Solution to the Palestinian Issue Remains Key for the Region
-------------- --------------
--------------


5. (C) MbR returned to a familiar theme, that a peace agreement
between Israel and the Palestinians is vital to moving the
broader region to economic and governmental reform, fighting
terror and to normalizing Israel's place in the region. He said
he would "work with Israel tomorrow" if there were a settlement,
as would many others. Powell said if he were to have one wish
for the region, it would be for a peaceful Palestinian state
side-by-side with Israel - this would change the dynamic of the
region in a positive way. (He also repeated this theme in his
public presentation.) Powell agreed on the centrality of this
issue to regional problems, and hoped that Secretary Rice's
renewed focus on working toward a solution would gain traction.


6. (C) Comment: As noted, Powell echoed many of the points made
with MbR in his address to the Leaders in Dubai conference later
in the day. Responding to a question at the conference, Powell
admitted he regretted that the information about Iraqi WMD in
his presentation to the UN Security Council was wrong. But in
response to another question, he flatly refused to agree that
the US was applying a "double standard" by not engaging the
democratically-elected HAMAS government. He underscored that
HAMAS can't have it both ways, i.e. be a responsible political
organization while at the same time using terrorism to pursue
its goals and calling for the destruction of Israel. His
presentation ended on this note, and may be part of the reason
it received polite, but unenthusiastic, applause. Press
headlines here played up Powell's statement that he felt Iraq
was in a civil war, but did not include his key point - it's not
what you call the situation that's important, it's what you do
about it that counts, and that his prescription on how to move
forward sounded much like the approach the President continues
to advocate. On Iran, ironically, Tehran special envoy Sadiq
Mahsouli (in the UAE to deliver a message from Ahmadinejad to
President Khalifa) was waiting in the wings to pay a courtesy
call on MbR even as Powell finished his meeting. End Comment.
SUTPHIN