Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DUBAI543
2006-02-06 12:08:00
SECRET
Consulate Dubai
Cable title:  

IRANIANS CLAIM NUCLEAR CRISIS HELPS GOVERNMENT

Tags:  AORC IAEA KNNP EU IR 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6936
PP RUEHBC RUEHKUK RUEHMOS
DE RUEHDE #0543/01 0371208
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P R 061208Z FEB 06
FM AMCONSUL DUBAI
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8136
INFO RUEHZM/GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL COLLECTIVE
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE
RUEHDE/AMCONSUL DUBAI 1038
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 000543 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR TSOU; PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/5/2016
TAGS: AORC IAEA KNNP EU IR
SUBJECT: IRANIANS CLAIM NUCLEAR CRISIS HELPS GOVERNMENT

DUBAI 00000543 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Acting Consul General, Dubai, UAE.

REASON: 1.4 (b)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 000543

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR TSOU; PARIS FOR ZEYA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 2/5/2016
TAGS: AORC IAEA KNNP EU IR
SUBJECT: IRANIANS CLAIM NUCLEAR CRISIS HELPS GOVERNMENT

DUBAI 00000543 001.2 OF 003


CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Acting Consul General, Dubai, UAE.

REASON: 1.4 (b)

1.(C) Summary: In recent conversations, two Iranian political
activists - one who has worked from inside the Iranian
government and one from outside government - both maintained
that the current crisis served the interests of the conservative
government as an excuse to crack down internally. Both
advocated a diplomatic resolution, saying anything else could
turn the Iranian people against the West. The first put the
onus on the U.S. to resolve the situation; the second on the
Iranian government. Other Iranian interlocutors also pressed
for continued public and multilateral diplomacy. End summary

Former MP Elaheh Koulaei: Work Within Current Constraints
-------------- --------------

2.(S) A prominent reformist member of the previous Majles,
Elaheh Koulaei (please protect) told PolEconChief February 4
(prior to that day's passage of an IAEA Board of Governors
resolution to refer Iran to the UN Security Council) that the
current state of crisis over the nuclear issue benefits the
Iranian regime. (Her views on the reform movement in Iran are
reported septel.) Currently a senior member of Iran's largest
reform party (Islamic Iran Participation Front or Mosharekat
Party) and professor at Tehran University, Koulaei believes it
is likely the regime is deliberately trying to stoke the fires
in order to have an excuse to crack down on the internal
opposition. Her advice to the U.S. was confidence-building in
both the public and governmental spheres and said that changing
attitudes in Iran about U.S. intentions was key.

Changing the Iranian Public Mindset
--------------

3.(S) Koulaei said the Iranian government has been successful in
convincing the Iranian people that the U.S. opposes any aspect
of nuclear energy or technology for Iran and that the U.S. only
seeks to advance its own interests in the region. She
maintained that the Iranian people are skeptical of U.S. and
European intentions regarding Iran, given recent events in the

region. She cited as an example a comparison of U.S. rhetoric
regarding elections in Iran and Azerbaijan, which she maintained
were similar in lack of transparency. In the case of Iran, the
U.S. urged people not to vote. In the case of Azerbaijan, she
maintained, the U.S. remained silent. This, she said, was
viewed by Iranians as proof that U.S. interests, not democracy,
were the U.S.'s principal driving force, and that in fact, the
Iranian people did not have the support of the U.S. in their
fight against their despotic regime. Regarding the UK, she said
the visit of Prince Charles at the time of the most recent
parliamentary elections, after the Guardians Council excluded
the candidacies of many standing members of parliament - herself
included, was also seen by the people as an indicator that the
UK stood with the Iranian government.

4.(S) To counter Iranian government propaganda, she advised that
the USG send a clear message to the Iranian people of its views
on whether Iran should have any access at all to nuclear energy
- separate from the issue of uranium enrichment. (Note: she
acknowledged the difficulty of reaching the Iranian public and
bypassing state media and said VOA and Radio Farda's websites
had been blocked for quite a while, as had the BBC's Persian
site.)

5.(S) Koulaei said she believed that expatriate Iranian groups
are giving the U.S. government an inaccurate view of the
internal situation in Iran and feared the consequences of this.
In her view, radicalization of the current situation would be
very dangerous. She believed that too much pressure, such as
international economic sanctions on Iran, would only drive the
Iranian people closer to their government.

Changing the Iranian Government Mindset
--------------

6.(S) Koulaei called on the U.S. government to work to change
attitudes inside the Iranian government, in order to build
confidence in U.S. intentions. She advocated sending a U.S.
envoy to Tehran for dialogue, although she acknowledged that
this was unlikely to be accepted from either side. She also
thought the U.S. could play the role that Russia was offering,
i.e. involvement in joint nuclear-related projects. She also
suggested holding conferences in third countries to which
conservative members of parliament could be invited to help
change their attitudes on the nuclear issue.

DUBAI 00000543 002.2 OF 003



Student Activist Ali Afshari: Change the System
-------------- --

7.(S) Student activist, longtime political prisoner, and
political outsider Ali Afshari (please protect) told
PolEconChief mid-December that the opposition in Iran supports
Iran's right to a nuclear program but objects to their
government's prioritization of the issue. Many other issues
were more important. He claims that many in Iran are unsure
whether or not they want a nuclear bomb, but he believes some
conservatives think the broader Islamic world -- beyond Pakistan
-- needs nuclear weapons.

8.(S) Afshari outlined for PolEconChief, the "next steps" he
believes Iran must take, starting with a suspension of
enrichment until Iran can obtain the trust of the international
community. Afshari advocates a popular referendum to decide the
form of the Iranian government, a step he predicts the
government would only accept under pressure from large-scale
civil disobedience. When asked whether there was any
inclination among the public to engage in civil disobedience, he
pointed to recent labor unrest as evidence of receptivity.
Afshari believes that once Iran became democratic, its nuclear
program would not pose any danger to the international
community.

9.(S) At the same time, Afshari cautioned, the opposition inside
Iran opposes war to stop the nuclear program. Iran poses a very
different situation than Iraq or Afghanistan, and change must
come from within Iran. Afshari maintained that President
Ahmadinejad actually wants to provoke a limited war, such as
strikes against Iran's nuclear infrastructure. The regime would
capitalize on such an event to destroy the opposition, just as
the new revolutionary government did after the Iraq invasion in

1980.

10.(S) He also advised against any effort by the West to keep
Iran out of the World Cup over the nuclear issue. Given the
huge popularity of the sport, such a move would go a long way in
turning Iranians against the West.

Other Views from Iran
--------------

11.(S) The view expressed by both Koulaei and Afshari -- that
Ahmadinejad wants to provoke a "controllable" crisis -- has been
echoed by numerous Iranian contacts. They believe that the
government is trying to use this crisis as a unifying force with
the Iranian public, portraying it as a Western attempt to
dominate Iran. In addition to being an excuse the squelch the
opposition, they believe the government is also trying to use
the crisis to distract attention from Ahmadinejad's failure so
far to deliver a better economic situation, as promised on the
campaign trail.

12.(C) A conservative businessman from Tehran recently commented
to PolEconChief that he thought the current U.S. course of
action, which he described as a "calm" effort to build support
among third countries for pressure against Iran, was a positive
one with no downsides. He, like Koulaei, also thought that the
U.S. needed to do more to counteract the Iranian government's
propaganda campaign against the U.S. He said Iranians initially
supported the invasion of Iraq but were disappointed in the
aftermath. Particularly since the Abu Ghraib prison scandal in
Iraq, he said, the Iranian government stepped up efforts to
portray the U.S. as a "monster," and it blames the U.S. for
everything Israel does. As a tactic, he advocated emphasizing
to the Iranian people via VOA that the U.S. was responsible for
removing Saddam Hussein - the person who had inflicted so much
harm on Iran.

13.(C) This contact claimed - without citing any evidence - that
he did not believe Iran had the indigenous ability to build a
bomb. Another contact said his relative, who he claimed headed
Iran's nuclear program prior to the revolution, recently told
him he does not believe Iranian scientists have the necessary
skill level to build a bomb.

14.(C) Another contact claimed former IAEA negotiator Hossein
Mousavian had predicted to him that with sufficient pressure,
Iran would ultimately agree to the Russian offer of uranium
enrichment in Russia. The conservative Tehran businessman cited
above said he thought allowing other countries to cooperate in
Iran's nuclear program was a good compromise.

15.(C) Many of these contacts advocate a tougher line with Iran

DUBAI 00000543 003.2 OF 003


than Koulaei laid out, saying sticks work better than carrots
with Iran. That said, few of them support war as a solution.
Most contacts maintain that outside military intervention would
rouse Iranians' nationalism and rally them around their
government.

Comment
--------------

16.(C) The majority of people we see in Dubai are relatively
moderate, westernized, and affluent, which almost by definition
means they are anti-Ahmadinejad. Many of them are also seeking
U.S. visas, which can color what they say to a USG official.
The Tehran businessman, however, was not applying for a visa and
was introduced to PolEconChief as a conservative bazaari, who
said he and other bazaaris had not supported Ahmadinejad's
candidacy and are unhappy with his performance in office. Many
of these people have predicted that -- one way or another --
Ahmadinejad is likely to be pushed out within a few months if he
does not do a better job in office; it is unclear whether that
assessment is based on real knowledge or merely represents
wishful thinking.

17.(C) Comment continued: In general, we do not see many people
from the provinces or from lower economic classes in Dubai,
although some Iranian workers in the spice souk in Dubai told
PolEconOffs recently (not knowing they were talking to USG
officials) that they liked Americans but not U.S. policy, and
that they liked Ahmadinejad because "he is strong and will fight
against corruption and the U.S. government."
DAVIS