IRPO: IRANIAN MPS INDICATE US MESSAGE NOT REACHING POPULACE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 005191

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR DRL, R, NEA
NSC FOR M. SINGH
ALSO FOR USDAO ABU DHABI

E.O. 12958: DECL: 8/14/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ENRG ETTC IR ZP AE
SUBJECT: IRPO: IRANIAN MPS INDICATE US MESSAGE NOT REACHING POPULACE

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CLASSIFIED BY: Timothy M. Brys, Acting IRPO Chief, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



1.(S//NF) Summary: Iran Regional Presence Office (IRPO) Chief
and IRPOoff met three Iranian Majles deputies (MPs) in early
August. The MPs explained average Iranians want peaceful nuclear
technology, not nuclear weapons. They said Iranians only hear
the government's line on the matter and do not know USG policy,
a situation they urged the USG to rectify. One MP said he
expects the GOI to reject the P5+1 offer. USG visa rejections
for a Sharif University reunion in California have damaged the
US image in Iranian eyes and produced confusion about US visa
policy. The MP from Ardabil believes Iran instigated Hizballah's
kidnapping of Israeli soldiers that sparked the violence in
Lebanon. He also said he sees Iranian interference in Iraq and
though he supports regime change in Iran, prefers change from
within. End Summary.

2.(C//NF) Iran Regional Presence Office (IRPO) Chief and IRPOoff
met with three Iranian MPs, all of whom were in Dubai applying
for US visas. On August 2, Iran's Assyrian MP, Yonathan Bet
Kolia, spoke about Iranian impressions of USG policies and the
status of religious minorities (septel). Bet Kolia sought a visa
to visit his AmCit wife and children who have lived in the US
for 12 years. He said he remains in Iran because the Assyrian
community asks him to fill leadership positions. This is his
second term in parliament, where he sits on the executive
committee of the Majles Cultural Commission. On August 7, Moris
Motamed, Iran's Jewish MP, commented on the nuclear issue and
Iran's role in Lebanon. Motamed is serving his second term in
parliament. He also works as an Iranian topography consultant.
On August 8, Nouradin Pirmoazen, Ardabil's reformist MP and a
surgeon specializing in thoracic operations, offered candid
recommendations on how the USG could better reach the Iranian
population.

Iran's Nuclear Portfolio: US Message Not Reaching Iranians
-------------- --------------

3.(C) All three MPs claim Iranians support acquiring nuclear
technology for peaceful purposes. Bet Kolia said Iranians
regularly suffer electricity blackouts that ruin refrigerated
food and therefore see the need to supplement Iran's energy
supply. Each MP indicated Iranians only hear the government's
line on this issue, which characterizes USG policy as opposing
Iran's acquisition of nuclear technology and technological
advancement in general. IRPO Chief explained the USG does not
want Iran to enrich its own uranium because of nuclear weapons
concerns but is not against access to nuclear technology for
energy generation. The MPs said this message has not filtered
through to the street. In any case, the average Iranian would
not understand the technical issues involved. Pirmoazen in
particular provided two suggestions to clarify USG policies and
combat the government's line. First, the USG should simplify its
message. Second, it should engage Iranians directly through
effective speakers on Radio Farda and VOA. Bet Kolia described
Iranians as highly factionalized but also nationalistic; they
tend to unite against common threats. For this reason, he
advised USG actions considered belligerent by Iranians would
alienate those with normally pro-American sensibilities.

4.(C//NF) Pirmoazen discussed Iran's larger nuclear strategy. He
believes the Iranian government will reject the P5+1 proposal.
He said those in charge of Iranian nuclear policy currently
perceive the US as relatively weak considering the resources it
must devote to Iraq and Afghanistan, high oil prices, and, in
the policy makers' view, a faltering economy. These factors
embolden Iranian policymakers to confront the US over the
nuclear program. He said Iran knows the US election cycle --
Iran will stall for two years until President Bush finishes his
second term and a new president emerges before deciding on
longer-term nuclear strategy. Motamed estimated 190 of Iran's
290 MPs support Iran's current nuclear stance. The remainder
want to cooperate with the IAEA to move Iran back into
international favor.

Sharif University Visa Rejections
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5.(C) All three MPs expressed dismay about the last minute visa
revocations for Iranians traveling to the Sharif University of
Technology Alumni Association reunion in Santa Clara,
California. Like its nuclear spin, the Iranian government
portrayed the USG as luring Iran's most educated to the US by
granting visas only to "humiliate" them for political reasons
once they arrived. The MPs said the revocations caused
significant damage to the US's image because the Sharif alumni
are upper-class, generally hold pro-American views, and either
have family in the United States or have already spent
considerable time there. They claimed Iranians now question
whether to apply for a visa, and professors and intellectuals in
particular are confused about USG policy. When IRPO Chief said
USG policy has not changed, the MPs stressed the USG should
provide that information to the Iranian people over Radio Farda
and VOA because they have only heard the GOI version of the
story.

Iran Probably Instigated IDF Kidnappings
--------------

6.(S//NF) Pirmoazen indicated Iran works closely with Hizballah
and provides significant funding, which he was told by another
government official equals 100 million dollars (NFI). In his
view, Hizballah would not have abducted Israel's soldiers
without Iranian knowledge. He said Iran probably instigated the
kidnappings. Motamed claimed roughly half of the Iranian
population supports Hizballah.

Iranian Interference in Iraq
--------------

7.(C//NF) Pirmoazen emphasized repeatedly that US success in
Iraq is critical to dealing successfully with Iran. Cultivating
a secure, democratic Iraq will help USG credibility and present
a major problem "for the Mullahs." The Iranian leadership knows
this, however, and is working to make certain the US does not
succeed. Pirmoazen said he met former President Khatami in 2003.
Khatami told him Iran's Security Council produced four plans for
the Iraq war. First, don't let the US attack Iraq. Second, if
the US attacks, make sure the attack fails. Third, if America
unseats Saddam, do not let it install a stable government.
Fourth, if the US sets up a government, ensure it is
pro-Iranian. Pirmoazen claims Iran provides ample support to
elements in Iraq to make sure they realize these goals (NFI).

Regime Change in Iran
--------------

8.(S//NF) The current situation in Iraq has colored Pirmoazen's
attitude toward regime change in Iran. He said before the Iraq
war he did not oppose US military action against the Iranian
government, but after US difficulties in Iraq he favors internal
change. He said many young Iranians are pro-American and do not
like the regime. These people suffer from unemployment, high
inflation, and are resentful the government has not kept its
promises to improve economic conditions. Pirmoazen believes the
key to unseating the regime lies with young Iranians and he
already sees Ahmadinejad's popularity decreasing.

Most Iranians Want Better Relations With the US
-------------- --

9.(C//NF) The MPs highlighted the Iranian people's generally
favorable view of the US. Bet Kolia said Iranians viewed
positively proposed US-Iranian talks this past Spring, and he
believes most want to resume diplomatic relations. He claimed a
few government officials have asked him to broach the subject
via the Assyrian lobby in the US, and specifically through a
Congressional representative. A minority of unnamed hardliners,
however, still do not want to negotiate.

Comment
--------------

10.(C) The MPs suggest the best US asset within Iran is its
reputation with the Iranian people. The MPs indicated that when
an issue involving the US arises they listen to Radio Farda and
VOA, which they view favorably, for the USG perspective. With
regard to the nuclear issue and visa revocations, however, the
MPs believe the USG has not provided simple information in a

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timely fashion to explain its policies or rebut Iranian
government propaganda. Cultivating Farsi speakers who
consistently appear on Radio Farda and VOA -- and perhaps
establishing an Alhurra-like television station -- appear to be
reliable methods to ensure USG policies are accurately
communicated to the Iranian people.
BRYS