TFLE01:IRAN'S RESPONSE TO ISRAELI MILITARY ACTION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 004503

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 7/17/2016
TAGS: PREL IR IS SY LE ZP MOPS
SUBJECT: TFLE01:IRAN'S RESPONSE TO ISRAELI MILITARY ACTION IN
LEBANON


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CLASSIFIED BY: Jillian L. Burns, Acting Consul General, Dubai,
UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(U) Summary: Since Israel began its military action in
Lebanon, Iranian officials and clerics have condemned Israel, as
well as US support of Israel. They have also supported and
justified Hizballah's abduction of two Israeli soldiers.
President Ahmadinejad warned Israel not to broaden the conflict
into Syria, and he threatened retaliation against the US and
Israel if the latter does not stop its attacks. Iranian
officials criticized other Islamic and Arab countries and the UN
for not denouncing Israel and for admonishing Hizballah as the
cause of the confrontation. Iran denied Israel's claims that it
has troops in Lebanon and that a plan exists to transfer the
captured Israeli soldiers to Iran. The Iranian press has roundly
slammed Israel for killing civilians, women, and children. The
hard-line daily Kayhan argued Israel's actions only serve Iran's
interests, and a "pentagon" of Iran, Syria, Lebanon, Hamas, and
Iraq is forming in the region. End Summary.

2.(U) Since Israel began its military action against Hizballah
targets in Lebanon, virtually all of Iran's major government
officials and clerics have issued public statements in state-run
media (all of the statements below are from government media
outlets unless otherwise noted) about the issue, including
Supreme Leader Khamenei, President Ahmadinejad, Foreign Minister
Mottaki, Defense Minister Najjar, Supreme Council for National
Security head Larijani, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps chief
Rahim-Safavi, Majles Speaker Hadad-Adel, interim Friday prayer
leader Ayatollah Emami-Kashani, former president Khatami, and
spokesmen for various ministries. Six common themes run through
their statements.

Theme 1: Israel attacks with disproportionate force
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3.(U) Iranian officials severely chastised "the Zionist regime"
as an unnatural, illegitimate state using disproportionate and
brutal force to recover two captured soldiers. On July 16,
Ahmadinejad claimed, "The Zionist regime has been imposed by way
of conspiracy in order to pose a permanent threat, aggression,
and cruelty. It is impossible for the regime to survive without
oppression and conflict." "The Zionists," he said, "think that
they are victims of Hitler, but they act like Hitler and behave
worse than Genghis Khan." The same day Khamenei charged Israel
with committing "unprecedented crimes." He termed Israel
"satanic," "cancerous," and "an infectious fetus for all the
Muslims in the world." Mottaki called Israel a "false regime"
teetering on the brink of internal decay. He said Israel commits
"atrocities" -- killing defenseless people, capturing thousands
of Lebanese and Palestinians -- to keep itself alive. Similarly,
Larijani accused Israel of bombarding civilian areas, including
hospitals, residential neighborhoods, and airports to foment
insecurity in the Middle East.

Theme 2: US behind Israeli actions
--------------

4.(U) Iran blames the US for Israel's existence and sees
American hands behind Israel's attacks on Lebanon. The US is
thus equally culpable for Israel's "crimes." On July 16, Mottaki
announced on Iranian state radio that "We strongly consider
America as a collaborator in the extensive crimes of the Zionist
regime. Without America's support, green light, and efforts to
lay the groundwork, one cannot even imagine Israel being able to
breach the air space of Muslim countries of the region,
including Syria and Lebanon, this easily." Voicing another
common refrain, Najjar opined July 16, according to Fars News
Agency, that Washington wants war in the Middle East so it can
dominate the region's oil reserves and assure Israeli security.

Theme 3: Hizballah actions justified, Iran will support Lebanon
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5.(U) While chastising Israel, Iranian officials have thrown
their full weight behind Hizballah and Lebanon. In his Friday
prayer sermon in Tehran July 14, Ayatollah Emami-Kashani
explained that Hizballah captured Israel's soldiers because
Israel did not respond when Hizballah asked Israel to release
Hizballah prisoners. Therefore, in accordance with the Qur'an,
Hizballah acted in self-defense and retaliated proportionately.
"Hizballah's action was absolutely moral, religious,

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conscientious, rational, and lawful," he said. In a statement
July 16, Khamenei claimed the Lebanese people are grateful to
Hizballah and regard it as their own army because it protects
Lebanon from Zionist expansionism and fights in the name of
Islam. The same day, Khatami sent Hizballah leader Nasrallah a
message, saying, "Hizballah is the radiant sun which warms the
hearts of Muslims and all free people around the world,
especially those of the innocent, brave, and resisting nation of
Palestine." On July 14, Mehr News reported that both government
spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham and Larijani pledged Iran's
legal, diplomatic, humanitarian, and economic support to the
Lebanese people. Larijani said Iran felt compelled to help a
Muslim country rebuild from Israel's attacks.

Theme 4: Iran threatens regional, worldwide response, tells
Israel not to attack Syria
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6.(U) Ahmadinejad repeatedly threatened Israel and the US with
retaliation over the past week. He warned Israel it must
apologize for current and past atrocities and allow Palestinians
to have a free election. Otherwise, Israel "should expect a
horrible destiny." (Comment: The Palestinians had an election in
January so it is unclear what Ahmadinejad was referring to --
perhaps Israel's arrest of elected Hamas leaders. End Comment).
To the US, he threatened international strife: "If they (the
supporters) do not revise their support for the regime (Israel)
or fail to topple it, they should know that this wrath would
turn into a huge outburst, which would not be restricted to the
region alone." Feeding off his claim that the US created Israel,
Ahmadinejad warned the US to dismantle it or suffer the
consequences. At the same time, he said Israel and the US do not
pose a threat to Iran. Regarding Syria, he said, "If the Zionist
regime attacks Syria, it will have to suffer a crushing
response." Government spokesman Gholam-Hossein Elham and Najjar
also stressed that an assault against Syria would be foolish,
and other officials hinted Iran would retaliate for Israel's
actions in general.

Theme 5: Criticism of equivocal Islamic, Arab countries, UN
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7.(U) Iranian officials criticized those Islamic and Arab
countries which admonished Hizballah for provoking Israel,
despite their accompanying condemnations of the severity of
Israel's response. According to Fars News, on July 15
Rahim-Safavi expressed regret that "Many Arab and Islamic states
have also displayed weakness in this respect. I hope that in the
near future different countries will adopt necessary measures
for confronting the Zionist atrocities." Ayatollah Emami-Kashani
suggested July 14 that the Islamic nation (ummah) should show
its appreciation for Hizballah by supporting it in Friday prayer
sermons. He also criticized Muslim writers for questioning why
Hizballah took Israelis hostage. Mottaki called on the UN
Security Council July 14 to force Israel to stop its attacks.
The following day, the Mehr News Agency reported that Iran's
Islamic Human Rights Commission sent a letter to UNHCR Louise
Arbour, urging her to take serious action against Israel for
carrying out attacks in southern Lebanon and Palestine and
killing "dozens of innocent men, women, and children on the
pretext of the capture of a few of its soldiers."

Theme 6: Denial of Accusations of Iranian Involvement
-------------- --------------

8.(U) Fars News reported July 16 that Najjar denied reports Iran
aided Hizballah militarily. An unnamed Iranian diplomat denied a
plan exists to transfer the captured Israeli soldiers to Iran.

The Iranian press reaction
--------------

9.(U) The domestic Iranian press roundly condemned Israel for
its attacks both against Gaza and Lebanon. A number of
editorials and commentators argued Israel cannot afford a long
war in Lebanon because it and the US are averse to military
casualties. They predicted Israel will eventually be forced to
retreat, as the US did from Beirut in 1983 and Israel did from
southern Lebanon in 2000 and Gaza in 2005. The pro-Khamenei
daily Kayhan said Israel and the US' policies will backfire
because they are alienating the rest of the region. As a result,
"If Iran was alone until yesterday, gradually the triangle of
Iran, Syria, and Lebanon was formed and after that Hamas turned

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this triangle to a square and after the establishment of the
principle-ist government of Iraq it has turned to a pentagon.
This pentagon is the new coordinates of the Middle East."

10.(C) Comment: By distancing itself from other Islamic and Arab
countries that have criticized Hizballah, Iran is seeking to
bolster its image as the leader of Islamic resistance against
Israel and the US. It is unclear whether Iranian leaders' verbal
threats of retaliation constitute posturing or foreshadowing.
Although it shrugs off any threat from Israel and the US, Iran
appears to be genuinely concerned an Israeli attack on Syria
could hurt its position there. Kayhan's editorial seems
reflective of Iran's grand regional strategy.

11.(C) Comment continued: While we do not have a general sense
of public reaction inside Iran to these hardline comments or the
events in the region, contacts continue to tell us that Iranians
resent their government's expenditures on Hizballah and
Palestinian terrorist groups while Iranians are suffering
economically.
BURNS