HEAD OF DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET OFFERS COMMENTS ON GULF STOCK

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBAI 002656

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/14/2016
TAGS: EFIN EINF ECON AE
SUBJECT: HEAD OF DUBAI FINANCIAL MARKET OFFERS COMMENTS ON GULF STOCK
MARKET WOES

REF: A. A) ABU DHABI 1927


B. B) ABU DHABI 975

CLASSIFIED BY: Jason Davis, Consul General, Dubai , UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: Dubai Financial Market (DFM) Director General
Eissa Kazem told CG May 9 that "decreased liquidity due to IPO's
and new stock offerings" was initially the main factor behind
the Dubai market's slump (of more than 50 percent) in recent
months. DFM's decline was then exacerbated by a subsequent
slump in stock prices in Saudi Arabia, both because market
sentiment was affected, and because margin calls by Saudi banks
led Saudis to sell their Kuwaiti, Egyptian, and UAE stocks to
cover their losses in Saudi Arabia. Kazim could not say how much
of DFM's recent losses were due to margin calls by UAE banks (a
factor cited frequently among Dubai contacts); he said Iranian
investors played almost no role in the DFM. End Summary.


2. (SBU) During a May 9 farewell call by CG, DFM Director
General Eissa Kazem commented extensively on the severe slump --
some would say crash -- that has affected DFM and other stock
market in the region in recent months. (The Dubai market is
down some 55% from its peak last year, compared to decreases for
40% for the Abu Dhabi market, 35% in Saudi Arabia, and 15% in
Kuwait).

Decreased Liquidity
--------------


3. (SBU) The current trouble was rooted in a "major reduction of
liquidity," to the tune of 20 billion dirhams (over 5 billion
dollars) over the past half year or so. As Kazem sees it, the
DFM began to correct itself in November and December of last
year, at a time when the Saudi market was still booming. Then,
at a critical moment in January, there were two huge IPOs -- for
the new UAE telecom "du" (UAED 2.5 billion) and for another
Dubai company, Tamweel (UAED 2 billion). Because the IPOs were
massively oversubscribed, the effect on liquidity was even
greater than the USD 1 billion involved. With so much liquidity
sucked up by the IPOs, the market fell, and a "herd mentality"
began to prevail. Before the situation could stabilize the
Saudi market began to sink. The situation there was exacerbated,
Kazem said, by a change in rules by "the Saudi SEC" to limit
daily losses to 5% (from the previous 10%); as a result, for
investors trying to sell Saudi shares, there were "literally no
buyers, at any price, for days at a time." Saudi investors
responding to margin calls suddenly "remembered" their
investments in Kuwait, Egypt, and Dubai, and began selling those
to pay their banks.

Iranians Not A Factor
--------------


4. (C) Kazim thought it likely that the Dubai market had
"bottomed out" or would do so shortly, but speculated that the
Saudi market "likely has a ways to go." He said he had no
specific information about how much of Dubai's slump was related
to local investors being forced by margin calls to repeatedly
sell some stocks at a loss in order to preserve at least a
fraction of their portfolios (a factor mentioned frequently by
contacts in Dubai),adding that "only the banks would have that
information." Asked whether Iranian investors or funds played a
significant role in the market, he said "almost none -- most of
the players are GCC nationals, though Indian nationals resident
in Dubai are also playing a significant role."

DAVIS