DOMESTIC ENRICHMENT MAY NOT KEY PRIORITY FOR IRANIANS

C O N F I D E N T I A L DUBAI 001318

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/8/2016
TAGS: KNNP PGOV PREL IR
SUBJECT: DOMESTIC ENRICHMENT MAY NOT KEY PRIORITY FOR IRANIANS


CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(C) Talking to Iranians in Dubai about the nuclear issue,
Dubai's Iranwatchers increasingly get the sense that the Iranian
government is overstating its case when it says that the Iranian
nuclear program is an issue of national priority for the Iranian
people. It may be an issue of national pride, and it may be a
priority for the government, but that is not the same as a
strategic priority for the people. The government has attempted
a propaganda campaign to try to make it a national priority, but
we see little evidence it has succeeded. The average Iranian we
meet agrees that nuclear energy is beneficial for the economy
and of course doesn't like the idea of being bullied by other
countries. Some have been convinced by their government that
without domestic enrichment there is no energy program, but many
we've talked to indicate they don't care if the uranium is not
enriched on Iranian soil.

2.(C) We certainly don't get the impression that the average
Iranian believes it is an issue worth going to war over. Many
are suspicious that their own government is pushing this issue
to create an atmosphere of crisis for its own advantage. They
believe there are much more serious economic issues that need
addressing in Iran than uranium enrichment. Of course, few
would tell a U.S. official that they support developing nuclear
weapons. Many seem as nervous as we are about their government
getting its hands on nuclear weapons -- for domestic more than
external reasons -- fearing that would prolong the regime's grip
on power.

3.(C) Iranians seem quite nervous about what's to come and are
scared of the prospect of war, which the majority of the people
we talk to -- even those who say flat out they want a change of
government -- say they don't want. Only a rare few say they
want the U.S. to undertake an Iraq-type action in Iran. Most
are weary of violence after the revolution and the Iran-Iraq war
and are nervous about the course of events in Iraq.

4.(C) Our conclusion is that when the Iranian government sits
down at the international nuclear negotiating table, it knows it
does not have the support of the nation behind its demand - at
seemingly any cost - for uranium enrichment in Iran.

DAVIS