IRAN: ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION UPDATE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DUBAI 001217

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/4/2016
TAGS: PGOV SOCI IR
SUBJECT: IRAN: ASSEMBLY OF EXPERTS ELECTION UPDATE


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CLASSIFIED BY: Jason L Davis, Consul General, Dubai, UAE.
REASON: 1.4 (d)

1.(C) Summary: The next election in Iran to replace the members
of the Assembly of Experts -- the group responsible for choosing
the Supreme Leader and with the power to depose him -- is
scheduled for sometime in summer-fall 2006. Debate on
logistical issues related to the election has surfaced in Iran,
but it looks unlikely that any change to past practice will
occur in this round. Nonetheless, these public challenges are
noteworthy because they demonstrate that the reformists retain
some ability to pressure the leadership. All will be watching
to see if conservatives dominate these elections as they have
the most recent municipal, parliamentary, and presidential
elections, and the impact on the supposed power struggle between
Ayatollahs Khamenei, Rafsanjani, and Mesbah-Yazdi. End summary

Proposed Amendments
--------------

2.(SBU) The Assembly of Experts is composed of 86 religious
scholars (mujtahid),directly elected for eight-year terms, with
the next election forecasted for summer 2006. This assembly
elects the Supreme Leader and has the power to depose him.
There is currently in Iran debate over four issues related to
the next round of elections: 1) combining them with the next
round of municipal elections to save money; 2) the degree of
power the Council of Guardians should have in assessing whether
potential candidates meet the definition of religious scholar;
3) whether non-religious members should be added to the
Assembly, given the fact that it is supposed to apply both
non-religious as well as religious criteria to select a Supreme
Leader; and 4) whether women can run. Any amendments to the
rules of the assembly have to be passed by the assembly itself.
The first issue - a combined election - is the most likely of
the four to be adopted in the near future, but probably not in
time to impact this round.

Combining Elections
--------------

3.(S) The Interior Ministry is considering a proposal to combine
Assembly of Expert elections with the next local elections,
presumably for cost-cutting purposes. The ministry is also
considering combining future presidential and parliamentary
elections. According to a former MFA official who attended
several meetings on this issue, each election costs
approximately $10 million for the Interior Ministry and $10
million for the Council of Guardians to administer. There has
been no decision yet, and the Interior Ministry, according to
Iranian press reports, would not make the decision without
consulting with the Assembly of Experts. If approved in the
very near future, press reports project the combined election
would be held January-March 2007, effectively delaying the
Assembly of Experts vote until next year. The Interior
Minister's deputy for parliamentary and legal affairs was quoted
praising the proposal as reducing both financial expenditures
and -- interestingly - "political tensions." Most reformist
political parties have opposed the idea, according to the
reformist press. The former MFA official told PolEconChief he
doubted the idea would pass, in part because the Iranian
government likes to tout the fact that it holds an election
approximately every year. Also, he added, bureaucratically it
would be complicated, given that the Assembly of Experts would
have to ratify its portion of the revision, while the Majles
would have to ratify the portions related to municipal,
parliamentary and presidential elections.

Objections to the Council of Guardians' Role
--------------
4.(U) According to press reports, former presidential candidate
-- and head of the new National Confidence political party --
Mehdi Karroubi recently proposed to Assembly of Experts Speaker
Ali Akbar Meshkini that the Assembly of Experts take away from
the Council of Guardians its vetting role in the elections. The
Council of Guardians currently has exclusive responsibility for
verifying candidates' status as religious scholars, giving it
vetting powers similar to those it has in other elections.
Karroubi proposed that the endorsement of two sources of
emulation (marja-e taqlid) should suffice. Karroubi was
recently quoted in the Iranian press saying that the review of
qualifications for the Assembly of Experts candidates should be
more open, "meaning for different ideologies to be able to take
part in the elections within the Constitution, and for there to
be no restrictions on the ideologies and tendencies like before."

5.(U) Mussavi Tabrizi, a leader within the reformist faction of
the Assembly of Experts, reportedly proposed a motion to reduce
this power of the Council of Guardians but it failed in

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committee.

6.(U) Abdolvahed Musavi-Lari of the reformist Militant Clerics
Society was quoted in the Iranian press as saying that if
vetting is "personal, factional, or exclusionary," the group
probably will not participate. He said those in charge of
supervising the election should not reject candidates without
having a [legally defensible] reason or approve of candidates
who are not competent. On the other hand, Secretary General
Gholam Hussein Karbaschi of the more centrist Executives of
Construction Party (and mayor of Tehran before Ahmadinejad)
stated publicly their party would field candidates for the
Assembly of Experts, as well as launch a newspaper soon.

Opening Membership to Non-Clerics?
--------------

7.(U) Karroubi also reportedly raised with Meshkini the issue of
allowing people other than religious scholars to run for the
Assembly of Experts, according to reports in the Iranian press.
The argument is that the Supreme Leader has responsibilities
other than religious ones -- issues related to the military or
governance, for example -- and that therefore other types of
experts should be involved in the selection process. The
Constitution says the Supreme Leader should meet non-religious
criteria like sound political and social insight, management and
leadership ability.

8.(S) Assembly of Experts member and senior member of the
Militant Clerics Society Majid Ansari reportedly drafted a plan
proposing that one third of the seats would go to individuals
proficient in areas outside of religion related to the Supreme
Leader's responsibilities. However, other members of the
assembly have told the press that this plan was unofficial, not
serious, and unlikely to succeed if brought up for
consideration. The former MFA official cited above, who is
reportedly close to Rafsanjani, predicted that if Rafsanjani
thought that opening up membership of the Assembly of Experts
would help him, he would push for it, but the official doubted
the measure would pass.

9.(SBU) The spokesman for the Council of Guardians, Abbas Ali
Kadkhoda'i, was quoted in the press as denouncing the concept of
expanding membership, but later (likely after being chastised
for stepping beyond the parameters of the Council of Guardians'
area of responsibility) qualified his statement as his own
opinion. He said he believed it was unconstitutional but
clarified that the Council of Guardians would apply such a rule
if approved by the Assembly of Experts. (Note: The Iranian
constitution is clear that the Supreme Leader himself must be a
religious scholar, but is apparently less explicit when it comes
to membership in the Assembly of Experts.)

What about Women?
--------------

10.(U) There have never been women members of the Assembly of
Experts, but just as in the case of the 2005 presidential
election, there is some questioning of this status quo in the
press. One recent Iranian article quoted Ayatollah Yazdi saying
"There is no lawful bar to women becoming members of the
Assembly of Experts. However, we have no women that qualify,
and no female religious scholars." The writer disagreed that
there no are female religious scholars and went on to conclude
that by expanding membership in the Assembly of Experts to
non-religious scholars, one would in any event eliminate this
excuse for excluding women. To support his argument for
inclusion of women, the writer quotes the late Supreme Leader
Khomeini: "Women also must be shoulder to shoulder with men in
social and political activities."

11.(C) An Iranian political and economic analyst recently echoed
the writer's sentiments to PolEconChief, claiming that there are
actually women mujtahids currently teaching in Qom. Therefore,
he said, women can in theory already stand for election; he
doubted, however, that any could win.

Comment
--------------

12.(C) None of these reforms is reportedly on the agenda of the
March 7-8 Assembly of Experts meeting. Since that is slated to
be the Assembly's last meeting prior to new elections this
summer, none of the proposed reforms seem likely to be
implemented in the short term. Part of upcoming session,
including a speech by Meshkini, will be public, and part will be
closed. The reform most likely to eventually be adopted is the
first -- combining Assembly of Experts election with municipal
elections -- but even that seems unlikely to impact this round.

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According to one Iranian source who works with UNDP in Tehran,
the Islamic Republic "has never yet postponed an election."

13.(S) The UNDP official commented that Karroubi, by merely
raising such issues, is putting a lot of pressure on the system.
The official, educated in the U.S. where he lived for 15 years,
commented that overall there has been a "quantum change" in Iran
in recent years in terms of political development. While the
path itself is something of a zigzag, the overall direction, he
believes, is positive.

14.(C) There are rumors that Rafsanjani and/or Ayatollah
Mohammad Taqi Mesbah-Yazdi will try to use this Assembly of
Experts election to facilitate their own takeover of the
position of Supreme Leader, by ensuring their supporters win a
majority. One contact claimed recently that Khamenei fears such
a coup is brewing and intends to put Mesbah-Yazdi and
Ahmadinejad back in their boxes, but only after they fulfill his
first priority of squashing Rafsanjani. In this contact's view,
however, Khamenei overestimates his ability to control
Mesbah-Yazdi and Ahmadimejad. Iranian contacts have numerous
theories on this issue which we will continue to report, but it
remains unclear from the outside how serious this jockeying is.
DAVIS