SCENESETTER FOR A/S SILVERBERG'S VISIT TO QATAR

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DOHA 000077

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON QA UNSC
SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR A/S SILVERBERG'S VISIT TO QATAR


Classified By: Ambassador Chase Untermeyer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Embassy Doha is pleased to welcome you. We expect that
you will find the Qatari leadership welcoming -- in principle
-- of cooperation with the United States on UN Security
Council issues. Our goals for regional security largely
coincide with those of Qatar; the number two in the foreign
ministry recently told A/S Wayne that U.S. success in Iraq is
also a success for Qatar. But at the same time, Qatari
leadership is drawn to roles that enhance its international
prestige and will likely view its new seat on the UN Security
Council, and its perceived responsibility toward a range of
"clients," with that optic. Qatar continues to seek
opportunities to get beyond the diplomatic estrangement over
Al-Jazeera that has dogged relations with the U.S. in recent
years. Qatar's high-level dialogue with Syria is increasingly
troubling, however. On other fronts, the bilateral energy
relationship is strong, with U.S. investors playing major
roles in the economy, and Qatar is making steady progress in
establishing democratic institutions.


2. (C) We have requested meetings with the Amir's wife
Sheikha Mozah bint Nasser al-Misnad (addressed as Your
Highness),the First Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign
Minister Hamad bin Jassim Al Thani (addressed as Your
Excellency or Mr. Minister),and Assistant Minister for
Follow-Up Affairs Mohamed al-Rumaihi.


3. (U) The paragraphs that follow provide background on key
current political economic issues in Qatar.

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Iraq
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4. (S) Qatar has been a pillar of support for our efforts in
Iraq and Afghanistan. We continue, for instance, to fly
unimpeded combat missions out of Al-Udeid Air Base. The Amir
shares our view that restoration of order and a successful
democratic transition are of paramount importance not only to
Iraq but to the region. However, there is some feeling that
Qatar's efforts over the past two years are not fully
appreciated in Washington. The Foreign Minister has promised
the Ambassador recently that the GOQ would provide debt
relief to Iraq "at the right time." While the Foreign
Minister has expressed concerns of civil war in Iraq, he has
stated publicly that the coalition needs to stay in the
country to establish wider security. The GOQ also points to
the importance of establishing a power structure in Baghdad
that is fully inclusive of the Sunni bloc.

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Syria
--------------


5. (C) Over the past year, Qatari officials have maintained a
behind-the-scenes dialogue with their Syrian and Lebanese
counterparts in an attempt to bring about stable
disengagement and to defuse tensions with the United States.
The relationship with Syria includes announcements of
investment projects aimed at the Syrian real estate sector.
Despite our protests, the high-level dialogue continues and
President Bashar al-Asad visited Doha from January 15 to
early on the 17th.

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Terrorism and Security
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6. (S) Foreign and Qatari residents alike were shocked by the
March 19, 2005 bombing of a British-run amateur theater. Had
the vehicle,s angle not shifted just before the detonation,
over 100 people could have been killed; it was a powerful and
lethal explosion. The vehicle was laden with explosives and
ball bearings. Qatari officials, prominent business leaders,
and religious figures all condemned the attack. The only
public demonstration in Qatar in the last 18 months occurred
several days later when several thousand Qataris gathered to
condemn the attack and express support for the expatriate
community. The investigation continues, but most recently
detainees were released from custody. The government's public
line is that the bomber Omar Ali, a long-time Egyptian
resident of Qatar, acted alone. However, evidence suggests
the contrary. Business activity has not been hindered.

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Political Reform
--------------


7. (U) Qatar's own program of reform, launched by the Amir
after he assumed power in 1995, took a significant step
forward last June when its first constitution came into
force. The constitution calls for a two-thirds elected
national legislature. These elections have not been scheduled
but are expected to take place sometime in early 2007. Qatari
women will have the right to vote and will be encouraged by
the government to run for office. In municipal elections in
1999 and 2003, women here were the first in the Gulf region
to cast votes, and one woman was elected to the council.

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Dramatic Changes in Education
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8. (U) Education reform, headed by the Amir's wife, Sheikha
Mozah, is a becoming a showcase. This reform includes a
sweeping revamp of Qatar's pre-university and higher
education system based on Rand Corporation recommendations.
Also as part of this effort, Qatar has brought to its
"Education City" the branch campuses of Texas A&M University,
Virginia Commonwealth University, Carnegie-Mellon, the
Weill-Cornell Medical College, and Georgetown University's
School of Foreign Service. These have been ground-breaking
efforts that have been hailed by many as models for other
states in the region.

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Al-Jazeera
--------------


9. (C) Al-Jazeera remains a blight on our otherwise robust
relatioinship. In response to our repeated protests and
appeals, Al-Jazeera's management claims to have reduced the
air time given to Al-Qaida and kidnappers' videos and have
made efforts to address the inflammatory nature of its
reporting from Iraq. The channel has stressed to us its
coverage of pro-democracy movements in Lebanon and Egypt as
well as broader coverage of Middle Eastern politics. The Al
Jazeera managing director told the Ambassador, "If the
Americans want to find a proper partner in its effort to get
democracy and reform, they won't find a better one than Al
Jazeera."


10. (C) The station has shown some signs of improved
broadcasting but still remains unacceptably sloppy in its
journalist practices. In December, the percentage of its
"negative" reports (as calculated by the Defense Intelligence
Agency) notched down for the second straight month, to 15%.
(DIA's calculations of AJ's broadcast coverage of U.S.
involvement in Iraq in 2005 ranged from as high as 20%
"negative" to as low as 7%.) The Al-Jazeera issue has cast a
long shadow, affecting cooperation on a variety of bilateral
initiatives floated by the U.S. The GOQ wants to find ways to
put U.S.-Qatar relations on a stronger, more positive
foundation. We anticipate that your Qatari interlocutors will
welcome your visit as a chance to move toward that objective.
On 17 January, Ambassador told the foreign minister, "The
good news is that Al Jazeera will no longer be the chief
irritant i U.S.-Qatari relations. The bad news is that Syria
will be."

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Energy Sector
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11. (U) Qatar's economy is one of the fastest-growing in the
world, achieving a 20.5% increase in GDP in 2004 and is
expected to record equal or better growth for 2005. Per
capita income is nearing $38,000, exceeding that of the U.S.
and soon to be the highest in the world. Qatar's vast wealth
has resulted from the successful development of its natural
gas resources over the past 10 years with plans for even
greater expansion over the next decade. Under the leadership
of the minister of Energy and Industry, Qatar Petroleum is
maximizing use of Qatar's natural resources to diversify the
economy and provide business and employment opportunities to
Qataris. Since 1999, there has been $60 billion in foreign
investment in Qatar's energy sector, about $40 billion of it
coming from U.S. companies. Qatar plans to invest $70 billion
in the natural gas sector over the next seven years.


12. (U) The GOQ estimates Qatar's oil reserves are at 27
billion barrels. Qatar's daily average production is
currently estimated to be 806,000 barrels per day; at current
production rates, oil reserves are expected to last 20 to 40
years. Qatar's goal is to increase overall production
capacity to over one million bpd by 2006. Occidental and
Anadarko are the two U.S. companies operating in this sector.


13. (U) The majority of Qatar's current development in the
energy sector is focused on its natural gas reserves.
Discovered in 1971, Qatar's North Field contains 15.3% of
world natural gas reserves, third behind Russia and Iran.
Estimated at 900 trillion cubic feet (tcf),the North Field
is the largest non-associated gas field in the world. The
North Field extends over an area of approximately 6,000
square kilometers is expected to support planned production
for over 200 years.


14. (U) QP manages the natural gas sector through its two
major joint ventures, Qatargas and RasGas. The GOQ's primary
goal is to supply 78 million tons of LNG annually to the
international market by 2012 in order to meet about 30% of
the global energy needs for LNG. GOQ officials have said that
QP would increase its LNG output from 15.1 million tons per
annum (mtpa) in 2003 to 20.2 mtpa by the end of 2004. In
October 2004, Minister al-Attiyah said that Qatar plans to
invest $70 billion in the natural gas sector over the next
seven years. The production facilities for Qatargas, Rasgas
and other natural gas related projects are located at Ras
Laffan Industrial City.

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Trade Issues
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15. (U) Qatar signed a Trade and Investment Framework
agreement with the U.S. in March 2004, but progress toward a
Free Trade Agreement is moving slowly at best. The minister
of Economy and Commerce has expressed his commitment to
achieving a FTA, but doing so will require Qatar to remove
such trade obstacles as mandatory majority Qatari ownership
of most businesses, the government telecom monopoly,
restrictions to foreign investment in the financial services
sector, labor issues, and lack of transparency in government
procurement.

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Regional Reconstruction
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16.(C) Qatar has begun to use its wealth more intensively for
development and reconstruction purposes while seeking
leadership roles. One recent example is that establishment of
the "Reach Out to Asia" foundation, headed by the Amir,s
daughter, Sheikha Miyassa. The importance of the foundation
is part of the leadership,s looking forward to the December
2006 Asian Games, which Qatar will host.

17.(C) Qatar has contributed as expected to reconstruction
and development in Iraq and the Palestinian Territories. In
Iraq, it sought a leadership position with the establishment
of a $15 million higher education fund through UNESCO and has
pledged $100 million at Madrid. Nevertheless, Qatar has not
been proactive in pursuing reconstruction efforts. This may
be due in part to U.S. pressure over Al Jazeera and to the
perception that Qatar is already doing its share by hosting
U.S. forces here.

18.(C) In the Palestinian Territories, Qatar makes use of
personal contacts when setting up bilateral programs. For
example, Qatar built a soccer stadium for an Arab team in
Israel and is donating 100 vehicles for the Palestinian
police. The Amir has close relations with Mahmoud Abbas, who
visited Doha earlier this month and lived here in exile for
many years.
UNTERMEYER