GUELLEH AND A/S FRAZER DISCUSS SOMALIA,

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DJIBOUTI 000748

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

LONDON, PARIS FOR AFRICA WATCHER
STATE FOR AF AND AF/E
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR COURVILLE
DOD FOR AF/DAS THERESA WHELAN

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/25/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPKO MARR DJ SO ET ER
SUBJECT: GUELLEH AND A/S FRAZER DISCUSS SOMALIA,
ETHIOPIA/ERITREA

Classified By: A/S JFRAZER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. We need your blessing on the new process for
Somalia as an example for other international groups,
President Ismail Omar Guelleh told visiting A/S Jendayi
Frazer on June 21. All levels of Somali society want to be
heard by the Americans, said Guelleh. He believes that
Somaliland and Somalia should be united under one
administration, now that the Islamic Courts are "ready to
receive the TFG" and core extremists can be isolated. He also
stressed that Djibouti is counting on the United States to
create a good climate between Ethiopia and Eritrea. He
acknowledged that the problem is very complex, with the
personal dispute between Isaias and Meles at the core of it.
END SUMMARY.

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SOMALIA: "A NEW SITUATION"
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2. (C) A/S Frazer met with Djiboutian President Ismail Omar
Guelleh on June 21 to discuss recent events in Somalia and
the Ethiopia/Eritrea border issue. A/S Frazer told Guelleh
that her visit was at the request of Secretary Rice, and that
United States interests were in strengthening the
Transitional Federal Institutions (TFI),building capacity,
providing development assistance, and maintaining regional
stability in the face of a failed state, Somalia, and the
Ethiopia/Eritrea conflict. A/S Frazer said the United States
was seeking to better understand the Islamic Courts, and how
to push for dialogue.


3. (C) President Guelleh offered his perspective in a
historical context dating back to Djibouti's 1991 conference
on regional reconciliation, Ethiopia's 1993 failed
conference, Egypt's 1997 failed efforts, Djibouti's 2000
conference of traditional and civil society, which also
failed, and finally efforts in Kenya from 2002-2004 to bring
together Somali political factions, including warlords.
Guelleh commented that warlords in the cabinet have opposed
the transitional government out of fear that they would lose
personal sources of income. The people of Somalia, he said,
know the United States has supported them in the past. All
levels of Somali society want to be heard by the Americans,
and all want good relations with the United States, he said.
Guelleh added that the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) "has
nothing to do with religion." Rather, he describe it as
clan-based. Shari'a law is used because it is the common law
of the population. According to Guelleh, the vast majority of
Somalis are against extremism and only small extremist groups
from Afghanistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Sudan are behind
these new Islamic Courts.


4. (C) Guelleh expressed the belief that defeat of the
warlords and the rise of the Islamic Courts create "a new
situation" for Somalia since the courts "are ready to receive
the TFG and allow it to come to Mogadishu to work." Guelleh
lamented the fact that, out of the five years in the
transitional period, two were already gone. Guelleh also
commented on the clan dynamics between PM Ghedi and UIC
Chairman Sheikh Sharif Ahmed who are from the same Abgal
sub-clan. Guelleh noted that PM Ghedi is afraid of being
replaced by Sheikh Sharif.


5. (C) Guelleh went on to say that Ethiopia had been quite
anxious over the UIC's entry into Beledwyne. The Government
of Ethiopia recalls the strength of Al-Ittihad Al-Islami
(AIAI) when Ethiopia confronted them in 1997, and they have
legitimate fears, Guelleh added. Yet Guelleh also noted that
Eritrea has meddled in Somalia, and both Ethiopia and Eritrea
have assisted in its fall. Eritrea, he said, had helped the
ONLF and Oromo Liberation Front.


6. (C) According to Guelleh, the United States should
participate in the Somalia dialogue as an example for others.

DJIBOUTI 00000748 002 OF 003


He said Djibouti is committed to assist the TFG, but the TFG
has no right to treat others as terrorists. A/S Frazer asked
Guelleh for his suggestions on how to proceed against the
terrorists. Guelleh said that the Al-Qaeda operatives had
been located in Mogadishu. "They are trapped animals with
nowhere to go," Guelleh said, and are only protected by their
ability to pay. "Somalis want money," he continued. "Without
money," he said, "no Somali will protect them." Guelleh added
that a mechanism was needed to "push" them out. Guelleh
asserted that "we" could get them out - it was only a matter
of "technicality." Guelleh responded that the core extremists
can be isolated, and offered assistance from Djiboutian
intelligence services to obtain information from Mogadishu.
He also insisted that warlord Hassan Dahir Aweys, who had
attempted to run arms between Somalia and Ethiopia, had been
captured and is being detained. (NOTE: This has not been
independently confirmed. END NOTE.)

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KHARTOUM TALKS
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7. (C) A/S Frazer inquired about the status of Arab League
negotiations in Khartoum. Guelleh said Djibouti's Foreign
Minister was in Khartoum for the Arab League meeting, and
that Djibouti would press both the TFG and the Islamic Court
delegation to a memorandum of understanding so that the sides
may continue discussions. A/S Frazer inquired if the Islamic
Court delegation would be able to make decisions, given the
low-rank of its participants. Guelleh affirmed that five
intellectuals and five heads of prominent clans had full
power to sign agreements. On IGASOM peacekeeping and a
proposed lifting of the U.N. arms embargo in Somalia, Guelleh
stated that they are two different issues. He said a partial
lifting of the embargo against small arms would allow TFG
troops and police to succeed. Heavy weapons, on the other
hand, should be collected. He also said that Somalis would
oppose an IGASOM presence in Somalia, and urged IGAD to wait
for the outcome of the meeting in Khartoum before sending in
foreign troops, due to the sensitivity of the issue. Guelleh
also said the UNSC might also assess the necessity and risk
of deployment.


8. (C) A/S Frazer told Guelleh that the U.S. Somali community
wanted to see sufficient space for the sides in Somalia to
talk. On the other hand, the U.S. is worried about the
development of Islamic extremism. She asked the president if
he thought it prudent for the U.S. to develop a contingency
plan in case the moderates failed? Guelleh reiterated his
belief that the extremists "will be isolated" and that the
Somali people "will never accept a hard-line Islamic
Government."

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SOMALILAND
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9. (C) In response to A/S Frazer's inquiry about his views on
the status of Somaliland, Guelleh said Somalia should be
reunited under an administration that takes into account the
distance between Mogadishu and Hargeysa. He expressed the
view that the majority in Somaliland know there is no
alternative to a united Somalia and that the international
community will not accept separation. Somalia is, he said,
"one language, one culture, and one tradition" that cannot be
separated. Yet, the new administration should give a voice to
Somaliland, which Guelleh characterized as a one-clan state
that lives in peace and receives money from its diaspora.
Guelleh noted that the most prominent Islamic leader in
Somalia currently lives in Somaliland (NOTE: Guelleh was
referring to Sheikh Ali Warsame, who is President in Burao.
END NOTE.)

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ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA

DJIBOUTI 00000748 003 OF 003


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10. (C) A/S Frazer also raised the Ethiopia/Eritrea border
issue with President Guelleh. She said the U.S. got Ethiopia
to agree to publicly accept the Ethiopia-Eritrea Border
Commission (EEBC) delimitation decision. There would now be
the necessity to accept demarcation lines and address the
consequences of the impact on the population. She said U.S.
efforts were aimed at getting Ethiopia and Eritrea to look at
practical implications of physical and human geography.
President Guelleh responded that "officially, Ethiopia is
saying that there will never be normal relations with Eritrea
while Isaias is in power. Eritrea," he continued, "only wants
the legitimacy of war. If Ethiopia accepts to give up, Badme
Isaias can say 'we were right'."


11. (C) A/S Frazer noted the difficulties of trying to
resolve a dispute where each leader seeks to "de-legitimze"
the other and queried whether it might be better to hand the
dispute back to the U.N. Guelleh responded that there is a
potential for peace, but that Djibouti's participation in
this area is small. Djibouti is counting on the United
States, he said, to create a good climate between the two
nations. He reaffirmed his view that the issue is a personal
problem between the two leaders, and thereby difficult to
resolve, even though Djibouti enjoys good relations with
both. As far as Eritrea is concerned, Guelleh commented,
perhaps in jest, that only Libyan President Muammar Qaddafi
appears to be the individual who can nudge Isaias.


12. (S/NF) In a follow-on meeting with the Head of Djiboutian
National Security Service, Hassan Said, A/S Frazer
highlighted the U.S. priority of rendering Al-Qaeda
operatives in Mogadishu to justice. Said contradicted
President Guelleh's earlier comments regarding the
whereabouts of AQ operatives in Somalia. Said noted that
Harun Fazul's location was "unknown," that Fazul is believed
to have had plastic surgery and is therefore difficult to
located, but that Kismaayo and Ras Kamboni are thought to be
his favored locations within Somalia. Said hoped to be able
to locate Fazul. Said noted that AQ operative Saleh Ali Saleh
Nabhan is also "elusive," but that Abu Talha Al-Sudani had
been located in Mogadishu. While Abu Talha's exact location
is unknown, Djibouti is getting a better sense of his
movements. Said noted that there is "no evidence" of foreign
fighters in Mogadishu, and that President Guelleh has
personally handled the recent contacts with the Ayr in
Mogadishu.
RAGSDALE