THE VIEW FROM AILIEU: REINADO'S POPULARITY ENDURES, F-FDTL

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000455

SIPDIS

NOFORN

DEPARTMENT FOR EAP/MTS, IO
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
PACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 9/8/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KPKO ASEC AU TT
SUBJECT: THE VIEW FROM AILIEU: REINADO'S POPULARITY ENDURES, F-FDTL
PRESENCE REGARDED WITH SUSPICION


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CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political / Economic
Officer, U.S. Embassy Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (a),(b),(c)

1. (SBU) Summary: Emboffs on Wednesday, September 6 traveled to
Aileu to look into developments there since dissident Major
Alfredo Reinado escaped from prison in Dili last week. Aileu is
the location where he established his initial base following his
departure from his armed forces (FDTL)post in early May. In
response to last week's jail break, the international Joint Task
Force (JTF) has deployed Australian Defense Force (ADF) platoons
to Aileu and Ermera districts, each of which includes three
members of the FDTL. This is the first time since the beginning
of the crisis that FDTL have been deployed to these areas, which
are strongholds for the FDTL dissidents including Reinado and
the group of 595 dismissed soldiers known as the "petitioners".
According to one FDTL officer, they are using this deployment to
attempt to repair their relationship with the population in
these areas, including the police. In Aileu, it is apparent
that sympathy for Reinado remains strong and that the presence
of active duty FDTL is regarded with suspicion and fear,
primarily because of the killings committed by FDTL members in
Dili on April 28 and May 25. All parties in Aileu report that
they have not heard from Reinado and have no solid information
on his whereabouts. End summary.


2. (SBU) Poloff and U.S. Defense Representative traveled to
Aileu on September 6 to assess local reaction to Reinado's
escape from prison and to the arrival of several FDTL soldiers
embedded in an ADF platoon deployed in response to the prison
break, and to gather more information on the nature of the ADF
and FDTL mission there. Aileu was the site of Reinado's initial
base following his departure from his FDTL position in Dili in
early May.


3. (C/NF) In response to the August 30 escape of Reinado and 56
other prisoners from Becora Prison in Dili, the JTF deployed an
ADF platoon to Aileu the same day. Emboffs in Aileu on
September 6 observed several groups of patrolling ADF over a
period of about four hours. An ADF officer explained that their
mission is to "secure the area" to prevent its use as a staging
or hideout base. He said they have no orders to attempt to
recapture Reinado or any other of the escaped prisoners, but
that an unspecified number of other ADF forces "are out looking
for him."


4. (C/NF) The ADF platoon in Aileu is also charged with ensuring
that Reinado and his group do not gain access to any of the
weapons held by regular police or the Police Reserve Unit (URP).
To date, there has been no evidence of any attempt or planning
on Reinado's part to do so. An ADF officer reported that all
the weapons inventoried in Aileu as of August 1 as part of the
National Police (PNTL) weapons inventory are still accounted
for. In order to reduce the number of weapons available in the
western districts, 51 long-barreled weapons, including Steyrs
and HK-33s, have been removed from PNTL stocks in Aileu, Gleno
and Liquica in the last few days and sent to the Dili armory.
(Comment: It should be noted, however, that when the PNTL
weapons inventory was carried out by the JTF in late July,
attempts to gain a complete accounting of the weapons at the URP
base in Aileu were repeatedly stymied. Over several trips to
the base, the inventory team was obstructed from getting a
complete inventory for a variety of reasons they regarded as
specious. The URP commander is known to be close to Reinado and
Emboffs observed in early May that the URP was apparently
cooperating with Reinado in his securing of the region,
particularly in establishing armed checkpoints at the major
entry and exit points. See reftel #. End comment.)


5. (S/NF) Per an agreement between JTF and the FDTL commander
Taur Matan Ruak three members of the FDTL are embedded with the
ADF platoon in Aileu and are conducting some joint patrols with
them. Although the JTF initially asked that they be unarmed,
Emboffs observed that one officer, Major Coli Ati, FDTL's J3
Operations Officer, was patrolling with a holstered pistol while

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the other two soldiers were unarmed. Coli Ati told Emboffs that
the soldiers accompanying him were allowed to have their
long-barreled rifles with them, but cannot take them out on
patrol. He said that the decision to allow them to have these
armswas based on considerations of self-defense since it was
known that the two areas to which they are deployed might be
hostile toward any FDTL presence. ADF officers on scene stated
that Coli Ati was being allowed to carry his personal weapon out
of deference to his high position within FDTL. (Note: According
to a well-informed Australian source (please strictly protect),
the original arrangement was that each of the two ADF platoons
would have one embedded FDTL member who would be unarmed and
serve as a "liaison/intelligence" officer. According to this
source, FDTL Commander Matan Ruak later insisted that each
platoon include three FDTL members, not just one, and that they
be permitted to carry automatic weapons. The source says
Brigadier General Mick Slater, the JTF Commander, eventually
agreed to these requests in part because Matan Ruak was holding
out the alternative possibility of conducting an independent
FDTL operation to capture Reinado.)


6. (C) Coli Ati, who returned to Dili the same day leaving two
FDTL soldiers in Aileu, said he was there in an initial effort
to"rebuild trust" between the FDTL and the people at large as
well as with the district-based PNTL. He said he had held
meetings with the regular Aileu PNTL, the commander of the URP,
the District Administrator, and other members of the community.
He described these meetings as constructive and cordial. He
said the population was receiving them well but that members of
the petitioners group were not happy with their presence. He
added that the Aileu reception of FDTL soldiers was far more
positive than what he had been hearing from Ermera. His
colleague in Ermera, Captain Alberto, who intended to carry out
similar outreach activities, had reported to him that the
Gleno-based petitioners had approached him to tell him that FDTL
was not welcome there until the petitioners' issues were fully
resolved. The FDTL in Ermera were therefore reportedly
maintaining a very low profile for the time being.


7. (SBU) From the conversations Emboffs had with locals, police,
and internationals in Aileu it was very clear that Reinado
continues to enjoy broad support and sympathy and that people
believe he should not have been imprisoned in the first place.
This sympathy for Reinado is closely linked to general sympathy
for the petitioners who are regarded as having valid grievances
that have to this date not been properly heard. The URP
commander reiterated these same views and used wording very
similar to Reinado's statement following his escape, opining
that the justice system was focused only on punishing the
"little people" while ignoring the culpability of powerful
politicians and the FDTL who had "started it all."


8. (SBU) In addition to sympathy for Reinado and other FDTL
dissidents, there is widespread suspicion and fear of the FDTL
based on the town's experience of recent events. This suspicion
was initially started with reports from the petitioners of FDTL
activities in Dili on April 28, further increased when injured
members of Reinado's group arrived in Aileu after clashing with
FDTL on May 23, and solidified dramatically when a very popular
member of the community was among the PNTL officers killed in
the FDTL attack on unarmed police on May 25 in Dili. Aileu
residents operating the town's only restaurant shared their view
of the arrival of the three FDTL soldiers, stating that the
local population is scared and believe the soldiers "want to
come and shoot" the population. This was reiterated in
conversations with the URP commander and several of the city
police, who reported that the population was "traumatized" by
the sight of FDTL uniforms, although the police themselves
claimed it did not bother them.


9. (C) Despite the concerns expressed to us, Aileu as a whole

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appeared normal, with the same activity level in the streets and
markets as observed on previous trips. However, we continue to
hear reports from both Aileu and Ermera that the population is
extremely unhappy with the presence of FDTL soldiers. Rumors of
large-scale demonstrations in both districts reached Dili on
Thursday. However, we have so far received no direct
confirmation of this from contacts in either location , and
police contacts reached today have stated that there have been
no demonstrations so far. The potential for anti-FDTL
demonstrations does exist, however, as youth in both districts
have declared their desire to mobilize a response, but are
currently lacking someone to organize one. The National Front
for Justice and Peace (FNJP) is currently planning
anti-government demonstrations in Dili but has not relayed any
plans for demonstrations elsewhere. The FNJP is led by
dissident Major Augusto Tara who has shared with us that he is
very upset by the FDTL deployment to the western districts and
says that he is in close contact with Reinado.


10. (S) Comment: The initial response to the presence of FDTL
soldiers demonstrates the extent to which relations between the
armed forces and much of the population in these districts has
been damaged by recent events. Even if FDTL interlocutors are
sincere in their assertions that their main purpose in going to
Aileu and Ermera was to repair their relationship with the
people, such efforts will face significant challenges. These
challenges will be particulary difficult to overcome if the
issue of the petitioners is not addressed first. If, as some
reports suggest, the FDTL is seen to be conducting active
operations in pursuit of Reinado, the gap between the population
in these districts and the FDTL could become unbridgeable.
Meanwhile, while there is currently no overt evidence in Aileu
of any active mobilization in support of Reinado, his durable
popularity means that Aileu would likely be a receptive place
for him or his supporters to operate.. For example, Aileu could
be a source of significant numbers of demonstrators should
Reinado put his full support behind the FNJP demonstration
planning. End comment.
REES