EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JULY 10-17, 2006

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000369

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SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JULY 10-17, 2006


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1. Summary:
New government leaves opposition parties cold
Prosecutor General sworn in for second four-year term
Rai Los hands over his weapons
Parliament back to work on electoral law and Alkatiri case
Plans for additional demonstrations called off
Internally Displaced People (IDPs) beginning to return~slowly
End summary.

New government leaves opposition parties cold
--------------

2. Prime Minister Jose Ramos-Horta on July 14 announced the
composition of the cabinet over which he will preside (see
septel). Public response to the announcement has been generally
muted, as most of the population in Dili seems more intent on
getting back to their normal lives. However, there were several
critical statements by opposition parties and civil society.
Among the criticisms voiced were that the new government has not
expanded the representation of opposition parties within the
cabinet and that Ramos-Horta was "wearing Alkatiri's old shirt"
by retaining much of the same cabinet.


3. The major opposition parties had the previous day
demonstrated their objection to the approach of President Xanana
Gusmao and Ramos-Horta in forming the new government by refusing
to attend a meeting of opposition parties with Gusmao. Absent
from that meeting were the heads of the Democratic Party (PD),
the Social Democratic Party (PSD),the Timorese Social
Democratic Association (ASDT),and the Timorese Democratic Union
(UDT). The opposition parties' primary complaint is that they
have not been consulted as mandated by the Constitution in the
formation of the new government.

Prosecutor General sworn in for second four-year term
-------------- --------------

4. President Gusmao today swore in Longinhos Monteiro for a
second four-year term as Prosecutor General. Monteiro's first
term ended several months ago and there has been ongoing
speculation that he would be replaced. Several candidates had
been discussed, with Truth and Friendship Commission member
Aniceto Guterres most often mentioned as having the support of
both Gusmao and the ruling Fretilin party. However, Gusmao has
also been urging Monteiro to move forward on the criminal cases
against former Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato and former Prime
Minister Mari Alkatiri and has been reported to be using the
threat of not reappointing him as pressure. The decision to go
ahead and reappoint him possibly reflects Gusmao's satisfaction
with the progress of these cases.

Rai Los hands over his weapons
--------------

5. In a widely covered and well-attended ceremony on July 11
"Rai Los" the head of the group in Liquica district that claims
to have been armed by former Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato
handed over his group's weapons as evidence to the Prosecutor
General. Emboffs and other observers in attendance counted
fewer weapons than previously seen in his possession. However,
Railos explained to local media that several weapons had already
been passed to one of the military dissidents who had given the
weapons to Australian forces in a separate handover. Notably,
however, Railos did not handover his pistol, which remained
visible in his pocket.


6. Observers at the ceremony remarked on the varied and somewhat
confusing cast of characters in attendance. In addition to
Railos, who was inexplicably dressed in an F-FDTL uniform, and
Ramos-Horta who arrived in the company of Bishop Nacimento and
the head of a visiting European Commission delegation, also in
attendance were several members of the National Police (PNTL)
including the National Commissioner of Police and the head of
the Police Reserve Unit (URP).

Parliament back to work on electoral law and Alkatiri case
-------------- --------------

7. The National Parliament appeared to be genuinely back to work
this last week, with plenary sessions proceeding as normal.

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Parliament's recess, normally due to begin July 15, was delayed
until August 15 and will be delayed again "if necessary." Early
in the week, Parliament received a letter from former Prime
Minister Alkatiri in which he stated his intent to cooperate
with the judicial process based on allegations that he was
involved in arms distribution. In addition he asked to "hold
back" his position as a Member of Parliament until the case is
completed.


8. The electoral law drafted by the Alkatiri government was
resubmitted to Parliament last week by the Ramos-Horta
government and has been admitted to the Parliamentary Committee
for Constitutional Affairs for review.

Plans for additional demonstrations called off
-------------- -

9. Although continuing to voice their unhappiness with the
dominance of Fretilin in the new government and with perceived
lack of progress on the criminal case against former Prime
Minister Mari Alkatiri, the National Front for Justice and Peace
(FNJP) has informed Emboffs and announced publicly that it will
not be organizing additional demonstrations in the near future.
The FNJP, led by dissident F-FDTL major, Augusto Tara, was the
primary force behind the anti-Alkatiri demonstrations that took
place in Dili in June. Instead, they plan to focus their
energies on campaigning for the swift prosecution of the
Alkatiri criminal case.

Internally Displaced People (IDPs) beginning to return~slowly
-------------- --------------

10. Security throughout Dili has improved to the point where
many IDPs have begun to make forays back to their homes.
However, official numbers of IDPs have yet to go down
significantly. One of the reasons for this is that large
numbers of IDPs are retaining their camp registration even if
they are spending the majority of their time back in their
neighborhoods. Several phenomenon appear to be at work here.
Probably the most important is that there is still a widespread
perception that security is tenuous and will require a greater
police presence in the neighborhoods to overcome. Other factors
at work include continued community tensions especially in the
hardest hit neighborhoods; lack of housing for those whose homes
were destroyed or damaged; and a desire or need to maintain
access to the resources provided in the camps. The various
organizations and agencies providing aid to the IDPs have formed
a working group to address the long-term challenge of getting
people back to their homes.
DICKEY