EAST TIMOR SITREP: PRIME MINISTER PERSUADES PRESIDENT TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000322

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PREF EAID AS TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP: PRIME MINISTER PERSUADES PRESIDENT TO
DELAY DISMISSAL

REF: A) DILI 316; B) DILI 320

DILI 00000322 001.2 OF 002


CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)




1. (U) Summary:
--- Prime Minister persuades President to delay dismissal
--- Anti-Alkatiri demonstration continued;
--- Lobato's house surrounded;
--- Security environment in Dili.
End Summary.

Prime Minister persuades President to delay dismissal
--------------

(S) According to a preliminary report from the just-concluded
Council of State meeting, Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri asked for
"a day or two" to consult with members of the Fretilin Party
about whether he should comply with the President's demand that
he resign as Prime Minister, and the President agreed.

(SBU) The Council of State meeting began at 10 a.m. this
morning. President Xanana Gusmao is constitutionally required
to consult the Council before dismissing Prime Minister Mari
Alkatiri. See Reftels. The Council members heard from Vicente
Rai Los, the ruling party (Fretilin) loyalist who said his group
was armed by Alkatiri and ex-Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato to
act against Fretilin opponents, to help bolster the President's
case that credible evidence serious criminal conduct makes it
inappropriate for Alkatiri to continue in office. President
Gusmao also reportedly presented videotaped evidence. The
meeting ended at about 5 p.m.

(S) According to two sources who were present at the meeting,
the discussion consisted primarily of President Gusmao and
several Council members urging the Prime Minister to resign,
with the Prime Minister repeatedly responding that he would not
resign. The Council discussion apparently broke down along
party lines, with five or six members (including the Prime
Minister himself) saying the Prime Minister should remain in
office while four or five members (in addition to the President,
who presides at the Council meetings but is not a member) saying
the Prime Minister should resign. (Two Council members who are
believed to be anti-Alkatiri were absent from the meeting.)
Finally the President stood up and said, "This has been going on
for three months. I can no longer face the people if we cannot
solve the problem. So if you won't resign, then I will."
Alkatiri reportedly responded, "Maybe the country needs you
[President Gusmao] more than it means me. Give me a day or so
to talk to my party." The President agreed. The meeting then
ended.

(S) Comment: The two sources who were at the meeting, who are
not pro-Alkatiri, believe that the President has succeeded in
making Alkatiri think seriously about resigning, and that this
will be the likely outcome of his talks with Fretilin leaders.
It is possible that Alkatiri will come back to the President
with some sort of compromise, such as that he would resign only
if the President agreed to appoint an Alkatiri loyalist as the
successor Prime Minister. On the other hand, this could simply
be a successful attempt by the Prime Minister to secure a delay
in order to strengthen his position. "A day or so" could easily
stretch out into several days.

(S) Comment continued: Embassy has not yet learned why the
discussion was apparently limited to whether the Prime Minister
should resign, rather than whether the President should dismiss
him. The President stated quite clearly 24 hours ago that he
would dismiss the Prime Minister at the conclusion of the
Council meeting. See Ref B. Although it appears that a narrow
plurality within the Council of State may have supported the
Prime Minister's position, the President pointed out last night
that the Council is a purely consultative body: he is not
constitutionally obliged to abide by the majority decision of
Council members, or even to take a vote, only to hear the views

DILI 00000322 002.2 OF 002


of Council members before taking action. See Reftels. It is
also unclear whether the President would actually have resigned
if the Prime Minister had not responded as he did. Perhaps the
President's surprise announcement was a ploy calculated to get
Alkatiri to change his mind, or perhaps it was a sincere
manifestation of despair. Embassy will report further on these
questions, as well as on the progress of the Prime Minister's
discussions with Fretilin leaders.

Anti-Alkatiri demonstration continued
-------------- --------------

(U) The peaceful anti-Alkatiri demonstration that began
yesterday continued today. The demonstrators numbered in the
hundreds, and opposition leaders told Emboffs that many more
would arrive tomorrow, from the western districts and possibly
also from the eastern districts. The international Joint Task
Force (JTF) continued to provide security in the vicinity.

Lobato's house surrounded
--------------

(S/NF) Several Joint Task Force (JTF) personnel have taken up
positions surrounding the neighborhood of Prime Minister Mari
Alkatiri and ex-Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato, reportedly to
enforce the arrest warrant issued yesterday by the Prosecutor
General based on charges Lobato had distributed arms to ruling
party (Fretilin) loyalists. Embassy was informed earlier today
that the international forces are uncertain whether to detain
Lobato in a jail cell or to keep him under house arrest. A later
report suggests that the Government of Australia may have taken
a decision not to execute the Lobato arrest warrant on the
ground that it would appear to put Australia on one side of a
political dispute. (Incidentally, it appears that Lobato is now
residing in the Government-owned residence he occupied as
Minister of the Interior, notwithstanding his dismissal almost
three weeks ago.)

Security environment
--------------

(U) The Australian Federal Police (AFP) reported two arrests
last night, one for possession of a handgun and one for criminal
mischief. AFP also reported two arsons. A group of armed men
fired shots into the air near the city water tower. The group
had dispersed by the time AFP arrived on the scene. In the past
24 hours AFP has confiscated two machetes, three long knives, 17
darts, and one baton.

(SBU) The Mobile Security Detachment (MSD) team departed today.
Embassy Dili has eight American staff plus the Regional Security
Officer. There are approximately 55 private American citizens
in East Timor. The Embassy continues to advise Americans about
the security situation and there is no indication that Americans
have been targeted or threatened. Areas frequented by Americans
continue to be controlled by JTF and Portuguese special police
(GNR) personnel.
REES