Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DILI320
2006-06-20 15:11:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Dili
Cable title:  

EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 20, 2006

Tags:  PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PREF EAID AS TT 
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INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0545
RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE
RUEHXX/GENEVA IO MISSIONS COLLECTIVE
RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0618
RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0536
RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0380
RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0398
RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 0475
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0269
RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 2034
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000320 

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
USUN FOR GORDON OLSON AND RICHARD MCCURRY
USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PREF EAID AS TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 20, 2006

REF: DILI 296; B) DILI 303; CB) DILI 316

DILI 00000320 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000320

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
USUN FOR GORDON OLSON AND RICHARD MCCURRY
USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV MOPS ASEC PHUM KPKO CASC PREF EAID AS TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR JUNE 20, 2006

REF: DILI 296; B) DILI 303; CB) DILI 316

DILI 00000320 001.2 OF 004


CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)

1. (C) Summary:
--- President still plans to dismiss Prime Minister after
Council of State meeting tomorrow;
--- Arrest warrant issued for Lobato;
--- Ramos-Horta in Baucau, plans to head further East tomorrow;
--- Anti-Alkatiri demonstration begins, may grow in coming days;
--- Weapons confiscated as ADF continuing inventory work;
--- Murder in Suai may be connected to armed group's publicity;
--- IDPs now estimated at 145,000, mostly outside Dili;
--- Security environment in Dili and districts.
End Summary.

President still plans to dismiss Prime Minister after Council of
State meeting tomorrow
--------------


2. (C) President Xanana Gusmao told Ambassador Rees that he sent
a letter to Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri this morning requesting
his immediate resignation. The letter was accompanied by a
videotape containing what the President described as evidence
against Alkatiri in the Railos case. See Refs A & B. The
President asked Alkatiri to tell him by 5 p.m. whether or not he
would resign, but as of 7:30 p.m. he had received no answer.
The President has called a meeting of the Council of State, with
which he is required to consult prior to dismissing the Prime
Minister, for tomorrow morning. The agenda will include the
accusations against the Alkatiri and former Minister of Interior
Rogerio Lobato for distributing arms to Fretilin party
militants, in some cases allegedly with instructions to kill
government opponents, and what steps the President should take

in light of these allegations.


3. (C) The President said he had met this morning with General
Taur Matan Ruak, commander of the armed forces (FDTL),who
enthusiastically supported the planned dismissal of Alkatiri.
Later in the day Emboff saw Matan Ruak in Baucau and confirmed
that the General appears to be fully behind the President's plan.


4. (S/NF) The President said he also met today with Brigadier
General Mick Slater, the Australian commander of the
international Joint Task Force (JTF) in East Timor, to brief him
on his plans. The President said General Slater raised no
objections. According to a source at the Australian Embassy,
the charge d'affaires had been instructed to request a meeting
with President Gusmao, but subsequently received an instruction
to cancel the meeting request. The Australian source implied
that Australia's Foreign Ministry may initially have intended to
dissuade the President from his proposed course of action, but
that ultimately --- perhaps after interagency discussions ---
the Government of Australia has decided neither to encourage nor
to discourage the President.


5. (U) Prime Minister Alkatiri issued a press release today
denying allegations that he had armed the Fretilin activists.
The Prime Minister claimed he had communicated occasionally with
Railos only to maintain an open line of communication and
prevent misunderstanding. "I myself have called for
independent, international investigations of all these incidents
and allegations," Alkatiri said.

Arrest warrant issued for Lobato
--------------


6. (U) Late this afternoon, the East Timor Prosecutor General's
office issued a warrant for the arrest of former Minister of
Interior, Rogerio Lobato. According to a UN press release
"Lobato was accused of distributing arms to Vicente da
Conceicao, known as 'Rai Los' with the intent to 'alter the
public order and the democratic rule of law.' The warrant was
signed by UN-funded international prosecutors working for the
Prosecutor General.


DILI 00000320 002.2 OF 004



7. (C) Australian Federal Police (AFP) sources report that they
are currently working out their next steps in response to the
warrant. Operational details are expected to be worked out this
evening. At time of writing, they did not yet know whether the
arrest operation would be carried out by the ADF, AFP, or both.
In addition, an AFP source reported that they are concurrently
trying to ascertain Lobato's whereabouts.


8. (C) The warrant follows earlier reports that Lobato attempted
to depart Dili today for Darwin but an order was issued by
unspecified Timorese authorities forbidding his departure.
Australian authorities had reportedly barred his entry to
Australia on immigration grounds allowing them to deny admission
to persons who might be involved in improper activities.

Ramos-Horta in Baucau, plans to head further East tomorrow
--------------


9. (SBU) Ramos-Horta today departed for Baucau, accompanied by
an entourage including General Matan Ruak. According to Embassy
sources, the main reason for the timing of this trip may be so
that he can ensure that the eastern districts remain calm and
that no destabilizing measures are taken if the Prime Minister
resigns or is forced out by the President in the next 24 to 48
hours. In addition, he is likely to be following up on credible
reports that a group of Fretilin supporters has been armed in
Lospalos district with a mission similar to that of the Railos
group in Liquica. A reliable Embassy source reported that the
District Administrator of Lospalos may have orchestrated the
delivery of 14 long barreled weapons last week at the same time
as he was organizing the transport of a number of people who
were living in IDP camps in Dili back to their home districts in
the East.


10. (SBU) Ramos-Horta is also accompanied by several
internationals including Poloff and Defense Representative from
Amembassy Dili. Embassy will report further details of
Ramos-Horta's activities in the eastern districts as they become
available.

Anti-Alkatiri demonstration begins, may grow in coming days
--------------


11. (U) A small anti-Alkatiri demonstration was held today in
front of the Government Palace. Estimates of attendance ranged
as high as several hundred, but through most of the day were
observed to be around 100, apparently all from within Dili. The
peaceful demonstration was accompanied by a dozen fully equipped
Australian military police. Australian Defense Force (ADF)
ground forces also increased their presence in the vicinity and
the situation remained calm. Local sources report that the
demonstration will continue through Thursday with more
demonstrators expected to arrive during the coming two days from
the districts. The deputy district police commander in Bobonaro
district reported that organizers in the district were
mobilizing demonstrators to travel to Dili during the next day
or two. The police commander stated that he expects the numbers
to be higher than the estimated 1,500 who traveled to Dili for
the June 6 demonstrations. See Ref A.

Weapons confiscated as ADF continuing inventory work
--------------


12. (U) On Sunday (June 21),the Australian Federal Police (AFP)
raided the residence of Abilio Mesquita , the police (PNTL)
Deputy District Commander for Liquica who has also been
implicated in gang violence in Dili. They confiscated six Steyr
machine guns, one pump-action shotgun, and several PNTL and FDTL
uniforms. AFP detained four persons for questioning in
connection with this incident. Mesquita was arrested later the
same day. Also this weekend, AFP relieved ex-Minister Lobato's
two personal bodyguards of their FN2000 machine guns as Lobato
left Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri's Dili home to go to the bank.

DILI 00000320 003.2 OF 004


There was conflicting information over the weekend regarding
whether the disarmament to which Major Alfredo Reinado had
agreed to had in fact gone forward. ADF sources today confirmed
that he did hand over a substantial number of weapons, but not
all that he and his group are believed to have.


13. (C) ADF sources report that the final report on their
inventory of FDTL weapons will be ready shortly. They note some
important discrepancies. In almost all categories, more weapons
were logged than were originally reported on the inventory
lists. There were also 47 weapons confirmed missing from
earlier inventory list, as well as anomalous serial numbers that
could point to the existence of hundreds more unaccounted-for
military weapons. The planned inventory of PNTL weapons has
been postponed but is expected to begin this week.

Murder in Suai may be connected to armed group's publicity
--------------


14. (U) A brutal murder that took place in Suai last week is
suspected by some to have been in revenge against the armed
group in Liquica that recently went public with claims that they
had been armed by ex-Minister Lobato, with the Prime Minister's
authorization and support. Mateus dos Santos Ferreira (a.k.a.
Mau Rakat),a member of the Liquica group heading by "Railos",
or perhaps of a separate group that was also reportedly armed by
Lobato, told Emboffs yesterday that the murder victim was his
nephew. He said he believed the murder was perpetrated by
elements, possibly within the Suai PNTL Office, for the purpose
of intimidating him from coming forward with Railos. A police
officer in Suai had told Embassy staff that the murder had no
political motivations but rather resulted from a personal
conflict between the victim and the suspect.

IDPs now estimated at 145,000, mostly outside Dili
-------------- --------------


15. (U) A UN press release today reported that the total number
of internally displaced people (IDPs) throughout East Timor has
been recalculated to be around 145,000. Contrary to earlier
estimates, the majority of these are now reported to be in the
districts outside Dili. According to figures collected by local
authorities, 78,000 IDPs are estimated to be outside of Dili,
while 67,000 are estimated to be in the various IDP camps within
Dili. The press release noted that these new numbers do not
necessarily reflect new developments. Many people fled Dili
weeks ago but information from remote areas is only now reaching
the Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance Group. IDPs continue
gradually to leave Dili for the districts. While we heard
earlier that these displacements were largely toward the east,
we have recently learned that Dili residents from the western
part of East Timor are also beginning to move back to their home
districts.


16. (U) The UN Humanitarian Coordinator stated his concerns that
there may soon be food shortages in the districts. In addition,
it is clear that the combination of IDP numbers and decreased
economic activity is causing increased hardship throughout the
country. USAID's private sector development project has been
monitoring economic activity in five of the districts since
April. The project reports significant price increases for
fuel, transport, and basic foods. Basic food prices have risen
between 5 and 50 percent. Fuel prices are up 20 to 100 percent.
Transport costs have reportedly doubled.

Security environment in Dili and districts
-------------- --


17. (U) Dili is returning to normal activity very slowly. This
week, some school children can be seen returning to their
classes. The Australian Federal Police (AFP) reported no house
burnings in Dili over the weekend, but local contacts reported a
few arsons each night. Local staff reported that six residences

DILI 00000320 004.2 OF 004


were burned Sunday night in fighting between rival gangs. Also,
a crowd gathered near Prime Minister Alkatiri's house Sunday
evening threatening to burn the house. The crowd dispersed
quickly once the AFP arrived. On Saturday evening several
gunshots were reported near the stadium. AFP arrested two
people Saturday, one for theft and one for possession of three
spears and a machete. In other incidents AFP confiscated a
smoke grenade, a baton, and an axe.


18. (U) An Embassy staff member visiting his family in the
western town of Suai, Cova Lima district, reported that the
district is generally calm but that people are very anxious.
PNTL members are carrying long guns and occasionally firing
warning shots into the air, making locals in Suai more nervous.
After traveling through several western districts, our U.S.
Defense Representative (USDR) reported that PNTL is functioning
normally outside of Dili. Some Dili residents have moved, at
least temporarily, to the districts. They appear to mostly be
staying with friends and family in the districts as opposed to
living in internally displaced persons (IDP) camps. Many local
radio stations are not broadcasting due to lack of generator
fuel. Many local residents complained of insufficient
information regarding events in Dili. Local churches appeared
to be a common place for residents to gather and share
information. USDR reported locals received him warmly and there
was no evidence of threats to Americans or other foreigners.
REES