Identifier
Created
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06DILI316
2006-06-19 19:20:00
SECRET//NOFORN
Embassy Dili
Cable title:  

PRESIDENT GUSMAO SAYS HE WILL DISMISS PRIME MINISTER THIS

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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 06 DILI 000316

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 6/20/2016
TAGS: PHUM PGOV MOPS KPKO KCRM TT AS
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT GUSMAO SAYS HE WILL DISMISS PRIME MINISTER THIS
WEEK

REF: (A) DILI 239; (B) DILI 275; (C) DILI 287; (D) DILI 294; (E) DILI 303

DILI 00000316 001.2 OF 006


CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)
(1) (S/NF) Summary: President Xanana Gusmao told Ambassador
Rees this afternoon that he will request Prime Minister Mari
Alkatiri's resignation tomorrow morning (June 20). Gusmao will
present Alkatiri with what he says is detailed evidence of
Alkatiri's involvement in serious crimes including murder. See
Reftels C-E. If, as the President expects, Alkatiri refuses to
resign, he will call a Council of State meeting, probably on
Wednesday (June 21). He will then exercise his constitutional
power to dismiss the Prime Minister. President Gusmao will ask
the ruling Fretilin party to recommend a new Prime Minister, but
only after electing new party leadership at a party Congress
that complies with the legal requirement that election of party
leaders be by secret ballot. President Gusmao says he has
spoken with key Fretilin leaders who believe that once Alkatiri
is dismissed as Prime Minister, Fretilin would comply with the
President's request to hold a new Congress and would recommend
an acceptable candidate for caretaker Prime Minister, probably
Foreign/Defense Minister Jose Ramos-Horta. The President would
then call new parliamentary elections for October and request
that the United Nations administer the elections. President
Gusmao says he will discuss this plan tomorrow morning with
Brigadier General Taur Matan Ruak, the commander of East Timor's
armed forces (FDTL),who he believes will endorse it, and that
he has already discussed it several times with senior Australian
Defense Force (ADF) officials, who did not object to it. Gusmao
said he also discussed his plan this weekend with Indonesian
President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, who is enthusiastic about it

and will help explain it to other Asean leaders. Despite the
President's apparently firm decision to go forward immediately,
and although his plan is fully consistent with East Timor's
constitution, Embassy Dili believes he still might decide once
again to delay its implementation. This could depend on the
reaction from Prime Minister Alkatiri and/or on the President's
planned meetings tomorrow morning with General Matan Ruak, with
the commander of the ADF-led Joint Task Force (JTF) in East
Timor, and with the Australian Embassy. On balance, however,
the President's proposed course of action is a positive step ---
and probably an essential one --- toward extricating East Timor
from the pervasive distrust and fear that is at the heart of the
ongoing political and security crisis. End Summary.

(2) (S) Ambassador met this afternoon with President Gusmao to
discuss reports that the President would act soon to dismiss
Prime Minister Alkatiri. The President had previously told
Ambassador that he believes he has a moral and legal obligation
to dismiss Alkatiri in accordance with article 112 of the
Constitution, which provides inter alia that the President may
dismiss the Prime Minister "when necessary to ensure the normal
functioning of the democratic institutions." Gusmao had
indicated that he planned to invoke this power because the
Government of East Timor (GOET) has been unable to perform many
of its functions for almost two months, because the overwhelming
majority of Timorese people believe Alkatiri's resignation or
dismissal is an essential element in any plan to restore peace
and stability, and because the strong evidence that Alkatiri
armed and paid a group of ex-guerrillas to kill his opponents
has made it impossible for Alkatiri to regain the trust of the
people or of the President himself. See Reftels C-E. However,
in previous conversations President Gusmao has said he wanted to
wait until the international forces (JTF) had restored order and
disarmed civilian armed groups. There were also suggestions
that the President might be waiting for an even broader
consensus --- perhaps including FDTL leaders and/or Fretilin
leaders --- before taking action. As recently as last Wednesday
the President's Chief of Staff, Agio Pereira, told Ambassador
that "the President thinks it is important for the future of the
country that everyone know Alkatiri fell on his own, rather than
being pushed." In today's meeting, however, the President said
he had decided it was time to act.

(3) (S) The President said that tomorrow morning he will send
Alkatiri a videotape or DVD of tonight's program on the

DILI 00000316 002.2 OF 006


Australian television news program "Four Corners." Gusmao said
the program will reveal detailed information linking Alkatiri to
a group of ex-guerrilla fighters that has claimed Alkatiri and
former Interior Minister Rogerio Lobato gave them money,
automatic weapons, and other equipment and directed them to kill
certain Alkatiri opponents including opposition politicians and
some or all of the ex-FDTL "petitioners." (Note: The program
did air tonight. It contained more damning evidence against
Lobato, who was the principal point of contact, than against
Alkatiri, but it also supported the group's claim to have been
in direct contact with Alkatiri. For instance, the program
showed a message from Alkatiri's cell phone asking "Where are
you?" sent in early June, a few days after the group reported
they had cut off contact with Lobato.) The President will also
tell Alkatiri, either by letter or by phone, that although he
does not wish to prejudge Alkatiri's guilt or innocence pending
the outcome of judicial proceedings, there is enough evidence
that "I can no longer have confidence in you." He will
therefore ask that Alkatiri immediately resign as Prime Minister.

(4) (S) If, as the President expects, Alkatiri refuses to
resign, the President will call a Council of State meeting,
probably for Wednesday (June 21). Article 112 of the East
Timorese Constitution requires the President to consult with the
Council of State before exercising his authority to dismiss the
Prime Minister. See paragraph 13. Although the President
believes the members of the Council will be about evenly divided
--- with Alkatiri himself and four or five close associates on
one side and a coalition of Presidential allies, opposition
representatives, and disaffected Fretilin members on the other
--- he pointed out that the Constitution requires only that the
President consult with the Council, not that a vote be taken or
that the President follow the Council's advice.

(5) (S) After the Council meeting, probably on Wednesday
afternoon or evening, the President will announce the dismissal
of the Prime Minister in a televised address to the nation. He
will present in detail the evidence of Alkatiri's alleged crimes
--- including not only the provision of arms and a "hit list" to
the group featured on the Four Corners program, but also similar
acts involving other armed groups whose members the President
says have given him sworn statements and other evidence --- and
will also set forth the constitutional justification for his
dismissal of the Prime Minister. See paragraph 13.

(6) (S) The President said that in his public address to the
nation he will reach out to members and leaders of the Fretilin
Party, as he said he has already done privately. He told
Ambassador he believes Fretilin still has an important role to
play in East Timor, "except for those guys who committed these
crimes." Contrary to some early reports on the President's
probable course of action, he will not dissolve Parliament,
which has a large (55 out of 88) Fretilin majority. Rather, he
will ask Fretilin to propose a new Prime Minister to replace
Alkatiri as the head of an interim government until it is
possible to organize national elections. First, however, he will
request that Fretilin hold an "extraordinary Congress,"
preferably next week. The purpose of this Congress will be to
elect new leaders under procedures consistent with the Law on
Political Parties, Law 3 of 2004, section 18(c),which requires
that leaders of political parties be elected by secret ballot.
The Fretilin Congress held in May, which resoundingly elected
Alkatiri as Secretary-General of the party, did so only after
the congress adopted a controversial rule requiring a show of
hands for election of party officials. Many observers believed
that if the congress had followed the rules requiring a secret
ballot, Alkatiri would have been defeated. See Ref A.
President Gusmao maintains that the election of Alkatiri and
other party offices was therefore illegitimate. He said he has
discussed this with key Fretilin leaders and he believes that if
Alkatiri were no longer Prime Minister the party would comply
with the President's request to hold a new party congress, elect
new leaders, and present an acceptable candidate for Prime

DILI 00000316 003.2 OF 006


Minister. (The President added that "the Fretilin people have
no doubt that Alkatiri is guilty. Unlike us --- at first we
could not believe he would do this. But they knew it all
along.")

(7) (S) President Gusmao said he believed Foreign/Defense
Minister Jose Ramos-Horta would emerge as the reconstituted
Fretilin Party's choice for Prime Minister. He said he believes
Ramos-Horta is an inspirational leader but not a good manager,
so he will quietly suggest that a Deputy Prime Minister be
appointed, perhaps highly-regarded Minister of Health Rui de
Araujo. Asked whether he had considered simply asking the
extremely popular Ramos-Horta to attempt to form a government
--- a procedure that would require him either to get the support
of Fretilin's parliamentary majority or to form a new
parliamentary majority consisting of some Fretilin deputies (at
least 12) and some deputies from opposition parties --- the
President said "I cannot," because he does not want to be seen
as imposing a candidate on Fretilin or on Parliament.

(8) (S) When asked what he would do if Fretilin refused to hold
a new Congress, and/or simply presented Alkatiri or some close
Alkatiri ally as the party's candidate for Prime Minister, the
President said he would not accept such a candidate. He pointed
out that Article 106 of the Constitution empowers the majority
party or majority coalition in parliament to nominate a Prime
Minister, but gives the President the power to appoint. Indeed,
the article makes it clear that the President's appointment
power is more than just a ministerial duty to appoint whomever
the majority party prefers: it explicitly requires that he
"consult with the political parties sitting in the National
Parliament" before making an appointment, presumably in order to
consider arguments that the majority party nominee is
inappropriate and should not be appointed. So until the
majority party or coalition comes up with a candidate acceptable
to the President there will be no Prime Minister. The President
said that he believed this prospect would cause Fretilin --- or
at least what he believes to be the pragmatic majority on the
party's "permanent political committee" --- to come up quickly
with an acceptable candidate. In the meantime, the President
himself would continue to direct defense and security affairs
(which, under the declaration previously approved by the Council
of State, see Ref B, includes not only the military and the
police but also other essential government functions such as
electricity and humanitarian aid to internally displaced
persons) working with members of the Alkatiri's current cabinet.

(9) (S) The President said he will also request that Parliament
pass an electoral law by the end of July. He will work with
Parliament to ensure that the law meets international standards
for a free and fair election, and he will then call a
parliamentary election for this October, rather than for early
next year as Prime Minister Alkatiri had planned. (Note:
Article 86 of the Constitution give the President the power to
"set dates for presidential and legislative elections in
accordance with the Law.") He will ask the United Nations to
organize and administer the elections, not only so that they
would be recognized as free and fair but also because the
Timorese government lacks the technical capacity to hold a
national election within the 90-day time frame he has in mind.

(10) (S) Asked what would happen if Alkatiri refused to step
down after the President dismissed him --- presumably claiming
that the President's dismissal was a "coup d'etat" and calling
upon FDTL to "defend the constitution and democracy" --- Gusmao
said virtually nobody would support Alkatiri. In particular, he
said he had had several recent conversations with General Matan
Ruak, who now feels betrayed and set up by Alkatiri. He said
Matan Ruak now understands that "Alkatiri ordered the [May 23]
attack on Tasitolu [the FDTL headquarters] and let Matan Ruak
think it was the police". (The President also said this and
other armed exercises ordered by Alkatiri during the week after
the Fretilin Congress may have been partly an attempt to

DILI 00000316 004.2 OF 006


dissipate the public attention that was beginning to focus on
the illegal procedures employed at the Congress.) Gusmao will
meet again with Matan Ruak tomorrow morning, give him a copy of
the Four Corners program, and explain his plan for the dismissal
of the Prime Minister and reconstitution of the Government. He
is confident Matan Ruak will support the plan.

(11) (S/NF) The President said he had discussed briefly with ADF
Brigadier General Mick Slater, the JTF commander, the possiblity
of dismissing Alkatiri, and that he had had several recent
meetings with other senior ADF officers to lay out his plan in
detail. These officers had raised no objections to the plan and
seemed to understand and accept it. Tomorrow morning the
President will meet with General Slater to present the detailed
plan including the timetable. (Comment: Although ADF sources
have suggested at various times to Emboffs that replacing
Alkatiri might be a step toward restoring stability in East
Timor, Australia's Foreign Ministry may take a different view.
A diplomatic source told Emboffs today that the Australian
Foreign Ministry has asked its Charge d'Affaires in Dili to seek
a meeting with the President for tomorrow, but has not yet told
the Charge the content of what he is to say to the President.
Embassy has also received a credible report (please strictly
protect) that Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer
called the Australian Broadcasting Company and made an
unsuccessful "demand to see the evidence" that would be
presented on "Four Corners" program about Alkatiri and the armed
group. End Comment.)

(12) (S/NF) President Gusmao said he had discussed the situation
in detail during his June 17 meeting in Bali with Indonesian
President Yudhoyono. He said Yudhoyono was happy with his plan
and had promised to explain it to the leaders of other Asean
nations, noting that it would be necessary to use a slightly
different explanation for each Asean government.

(13) (SBU) Comment: The President's proposed course of action
appears to comply fully with East Timor's constitution. Article
112 of the Constitution ("Dismissal of the Government") sets
forth seven types of situations in which the Prime Minister
and/or his Government may be dismissed. The first six cases are
set forth in section 1 of Article 112 and are mandatory: they
"require" or "bring about" (implicam) the dismissal of the
Government. They include such cases as the beginning of a new
legislative term; the resignation, death, or permanent
disability of the Prime Minister; and a vote of no confidence by
Parliament. The second section is permissive: it provides that
the President "may" (pode) dismiss the Prime Minister only in
certain specified situations: "in the cases set forth in the
previous section [vote of no confidence, beginning of a new
session, etc.] and when it is shown to be necessary to assure
the regular functioning of the democratic institutions, after
consultation with (ouvido, "having heard") the Council of
State." To the extent Prime Minister Alkatiri's "coup d'etat"
talk has any substance, it might rest on a claim that the
"functioning of the democratic institutions" language of section
2 of article 112 merely places an additional limitation on the
President's power, rather than setting forth an additional
situation in which he may dismiss the Prime Minister. But this
interpretation would lead to absurd consequences. The
situations set forth in section 1 --- vote of no confidence,
beginning of a new legislative term, etc. --- appear sufficient
in and of themselves to justify the dismissal of a government,
and have been so regarded in other countries with parliamentary
systems. Imposing an additional requirement that there be a
political or constitutional crisis in order for a government to
be dismissed in these situations would make no sense. The most
straightforward reading of the "functioning of the democratic
insitutions" language is that it adds a seventh situation in
which the President may dismiss the Prime Minister: the six
mandatory situations set forth in section one "and" when
dismissal is necessary to preserve the functioning of the
institutions of government. Other steps the President proposes

DILI 00000316 005.2 OF 006


to take --- appointing a new Prime Minister only when an
acceptable candidate is nominated by the majority party or
coalition and only after consultation with the other parties in
Parliament, and then setting a date for national elections ---
are explicitly authorized by the Constitution. See paragraphs 8
and 9. The Constitution does not explicitly provide for interim
governance after the dismissal of a Prime Minister and pending
the appointment of a new one, but the President's assumption of
power over security and defense, in accordance with a
"declaration of crisis" approved by the Council of State and
agreed to by Prime Minister Alkatiri in accordance with
provisions of law governing such declarations (see Ref B)
appears to provide sufficient legal authority in the present
situation.

(14) (S/NF) Comment continued: Notwithstanding the President's
apparent determination to proceed quickly, it is quite possible
that he could be persuaded that further delay is necessary or
desirable. If, for instance, Prime Minister Alkatiri were to
promise to consider carefully the President's request to resign,
but to ask for a few days in which to consider it, it is not out
of the question that the President would agree. If General
Matan Ruak were to object to the President's plan --- and if the
President were to conclude that Matan Ruak and/or any
significant faction of FDTL might use force to defend the Prime
Minister's right to remain in office, the President would
probably decide to take more time in an effort to persuade the
dissenters, rather than to rely on the international forces to
put down a pro-Alkatiri "auTOGOlpe". Even more important, if
either General Slater of the JTF or the Government of Australia
through its Charge d'Affaires were to make a last-minute appeal
for further delay --- perhaps citing the risk of destabilzing
violence by small but heavily armed pro-Alkatiri elements ---
the President would presumably comply with the request.

(15) (S) Comment continued: On balance, Embassy Dili believes
the President's proposed course of action is far more likely to
bring peace, stability, and even unity to East Timor than the
alternative, which is to hope that the spectacularly unpopular
and probably criminal incumbent administration can somehow
recover its capacity to govern and that it will then hold free
and fair elections in 2007. Although the tens of thousands of
internally displaced persons (IDPs) who have been sleeping in
churchyards for the last two months cite a variety of fears in
explaining why they will not return to their homes, when asked
what it would take to address these fears they invariably reply,
"The government must change," or "Xanana must act," or simply
"Down with Alkatiri." Although it is difficult to gainsay the
risk of further violence by some of the very armed groups that
Alkatiri is now in trouble for arming in the first place, this
seems an odd argument for leaving him in office. Moreover, it
seems wrong to assume that these groups will be less dangerous
if they have a sitting Prime Minister on their side than if they
do not. Although little is known about these groups --- only
three are known to exist, each consisting of 20 to 30 men, and
two of these three groups have now switched sides and agreed to
turn in their arms --- the original purposes of arming them were
said to be to intimidate voters in the 2007 elections, to
"eliminate" government critics, and perhaps to retain power by
force in the event Fretilin were to lose. Even if there are
other such groups, a good argument can be made that they would
be less dangerous on the outside than on the inside.

(16) (C) Commebnt continued: Even more important, the
President's plan is not just to dismiss a bad and unpopular
government but to bring about a good and popular one. Assuming
Gusmao is right that Fretilin could be persuaded to choose
Ramos-Horta as the caretaker Prime Minister, the Timorese people
would for the first time in their history have a government
controlled by someone of whom they strongly approve. A
government led by Ramos-Horta, supported by President Gusmao
himself, including moderate elements from the current government
such as Minister Araujo, and working closely with the Catholic

DILI 00000316 006.2 OF 006


Church and other institutions of civil society to heal the
wounds that have emerged during the last few months would not be
the whole formula for putting East Timor back on the right
track, but it would be a great start. End comment.
REES