EAST TIMOR SITUATION REPORT FOR MAY 30

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 DILI 000276

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS, IO, S/WCI
NSC FOR HOLLY MORROW
USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD
USUN FOR RICHARD MCCURRY, GORDON OLSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/31/2016
TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR PHUM KPKO CASC TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITUATION REPORT FOR MAY 30


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CLASSIFIED BY: Grover Joseph Rees, Ambassador, U.S. Embassy
Dili, Department of State.
REASON: 1.4 (b),(d)



(1) (S/NOFORN) Summary:
DECREASED VIOLENCE, BUT MOB TACTICS CHANGING;
POLITICAL AGENDA BEHIND MOB VIOLENCE?
ADF FRUSTRATED WITH MDF?
COUNCIL OF STATE MEETING CONCLUDES;
BISHOP NASCIMENTO JOINS THE CALL FOR ALKATIRI'S RESIGNATION;
IAN MARTIN ARRIVES, UN BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON POST-UNOTIL.
End summary.

DECREASED VIOLENCE, BUT MOB TACTICS CHANGING

(2) (SBU) While the overall level of violence was somewhat lower
last night than the previous night, it became significantly
higher today. It appears that the behavior of the mobs that
have become the overriding security concern for city residents
may be evolving in response to Australian Defense Forces (ADF)
tactics. The Embassy has heard several reports that ADF shows of
force are no longer sufficient to deter mob violence. This
morning, for example, it took more than two hours for ADF to
disperse a large, violent mob after the crowd observed that the
ADF would not use deadly force and lacked non-lethal options,
such as tear gas. Previously, crowds tended to disperse and flee
after ADF arrived on the scene. The image that the ADF is unable
to control the violence plays into the hands of those who have
advocated a greater role for FDTL in stabilization operations.

(3) (SBU) A former USAID employee, who was forced to hide in his
home while it was overrun by a hostile crowd looking for him,
described the composition and mood of the mob. He said that he
recognized most of the people who surrounded and entered his
home as neighbors alongside whom he has lived for some time
without previous incident. However, today they stated their
intent to "clean out the Lorosa'e" (the former USAID employee is
from the eastern part of the country while the mob was made up
of people of "Loromonu" or western origin).

(4) (U) The east - west divide that is an element, and possibly
a driving factor, behind the continued mob formation seems to be
particularly strong in more crowded, poor and recently
established communities. Emboffs have also encountered
communities that continue to maintain cohesion with easterners
and westerners living side by side without issue. Some of these
communities have organized neighborhood watch organizations to
protect from opportunistic mob or gang activity.

POLITICAL AGENDA BEHIND MOB VIOLENCE?

(5) (SBU) Although some observers regard east/west hostilities
and opportunistic hooliganism as the sole causes of recent mob
violence, others suggest that there is a "third force" at work
--- that is, that the mobs may be fighting a proxy war for other
actors who have a political agenda and/or who have ostensibly
withdrawn from the fighting. In a briefing today for the
diplomatic corps, Foreign Minister Jose Ramos-Horta alluded to
this possibility, and both Special Representative of the UN
Secretary General (SRSG) Sukehiro Hasegawa and ADF joint task

SIPDIS
force commander Brigadier General Slater appeared to agree.
None of the three was explicit about which "third force" they
believed to be behind the recent fighting. Pro-Alkatiri sources
have suggested that anti-Alkatiri activists might be instigating
violence in order to put pressure on the Prime Minister to
resign, while other observers suggest that the pro-Alkatiri
forces themselves may be seeking to create chaos in order to
prove that it was a mistake to bring in the Australian forces
and withdraw FDTL from Dili.

ADF FRUSTRATED WITH MDF?

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(6) (S/NF) Some Australian Defense Force (ADF) personnel have
privately expressed increasing frustration with the Malaysian
Defense Force (MDF) efforts on the ground. While MDF has been
willing to coordinate with the ADF through participation in the
Joint Task Force, it appears to be overly passive in its
operations and is having even less success than the ADF at
quickly dispersing mobs. Overnight, Emboff witnessed a small
Malaysian detachment that appeared to be actively avoiding
contact with a nearby mob which had burned one residence and
stoned others. Earlier today Emboffs witnessed a Malaysian
detachment timidly remove a small roadblock on the road to the
airport and then watched the small mob rebuild it while the
Malaysian troops were still in the area.

COUNCIL OF STATE MEETING CONCLUDES

(7) (SBU) Although it was scheduled recommence this morning, the
Council of State meeting did not reconvene until approximately
3:00pm and continued until early evening. Reports were that
Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri and his allies were unwilling to
return to the President's Palace where angry anti-Alkatiri
demonstrators had gathered yesterday, so today's session was
held at the Palacio de Governo which houses Alkatiri's office
and those of other government ministries. Later, it was
reported that the Prime Minister spent the morning meeting with
Minister for State Administration Anna Pessoa and Minister of
Defense Roque Rodrigues. Pessoa and Rodrigues are arguably the
two cabinet ministers regarded as most intelligent and most
trusted by Alkatiri, and the three may have been drafting
suggested changes to a "declaration of crisis" that the
President subsequently issued. See septel for further
discussion of the Council of State meeting and the declaration
of crisis.

BISHOP NASCIMENTO JOINS THE CALL FOR ALKATIRI'S RESIGNATION

(8) (C) Public pressure for Alkatiri's resignation is widespread
and appears to span the east/ west divide. While the Catholic
Church has been relatively quiet during the crisis, its views of
Alkatiri are well established and Bishop Basilio Nascimento of
the Baucau Diocese made a statement today from Portugal urging
Alkatiri's resignation.

IAN MARTIN ARRIVES, UN BACK TO DRAWING BOARD ON POST-UNOTIL

(9) (SBU) Ian Martin, the Secretary General's Special Envoy to
East Timor, arrived late yesterday afternoon. He met
immediately with President Xanana Gusmao and Foreign Minister
Ramos Horta and then spent most of today in consultations with
UNOTIL personnel. In a late afternoon meeting with Ambassador
Rees, Martin focused on whether the current security
intervention by Australia, Malaysia, New Zealand, and Portugal
should be replaced by a renewal of United Nations peacekeeping
forces. Ambassador responded that the United States would
consult closely with Australia on this question. Martin also
asked about a possible United Nations role in rebuilding the
police force and in investigating recent serious crimes
including the May 25 attack by FDTL on unarmed police officers
who had surrendered under United Nations auspices.

(10) (SBU) In recent conversations, UNOTIL personnel have
expressed their opinion that developments over the last month
have rendered previous discussions and planning for post-UNOTIL
null and void and have probably put the UN and East Timor back
several years. They see the need for a long-term international
security presence, whether it remains primarily an Australian
operation or transforms into a new UN peacekeeping mission.
They note that to start with, two major state institutions, the
police and the military, will need to be fully reassessed and
rebuilt. In addition, they note, there may now be a need for
the 2007 elections to be a UN operation. (This echoes a
suggestion frequently made by Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta,

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although it is likely to be vigorously opposed by Alkatiri if he
remains Prime Minister.) Although they continue to emphasize
that everything is now "up in the air," these UN personnel are
certain that the next mission will be significantly larger in
scope than the current one.

FOOD SECURITY AN INCREASING CONCERN

(11) (U) For both internally displaced persons (IDPs) and the
population at large, food security is becoming an increasing
concern. USAID director and Emboff today visited several IDP
sites and found that the low supply of food is emerging as the
most consistent concern among both organizers and inhabitants.
A number of IDPs reported that while they were continuing to
receive food, they were down to one meal a day over much of the
past week. However, the Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance
Group is in the process of completing assessments and seeking to
return food, water and supply delivery to needed levels. At
least two international aid organizations that had pulled their
personnel out over the weekend will be returning during the week
and resuming their activities in the IDP sites.

(12) (SBU) Throughout Dili most markets and stores remain
closed, therefore cutting off food access to most Timorese
residents. A large number of Embassy employees have reported
that are about to run out of food or have already run out. We
are currently discussing how to address this in the coming days
as we do not expect this situation to be mitigated quickly. The
Inter-Agency Humanitarian Assistance Group reportedly decided
last week to extend food distribution to the population at large
in addition to IDP sites, but has yet to begin implementing this
arrangement. (Note: Internationals continue to have access to
food from several more expensive stores that cater to foreign
tastes and budgets and are maintaining limited hours and
selective entrance policies. End note.)
REES