Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06DILI240
2006-05-18 15:15:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Dili
Cable title:
EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 18, 2006
how-toVZCZCXRO9682 OO RUEHCHI RUEHNH RUEHPB DE RUEHDT #0240/01 1381515 ZNY CCCCC ZZH O P 181515Z MAY 06 FM AMEMBASSY DILI TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 2539 INFO RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0419 RUCNARF/ASEAN REGIONAL FORUM COLLECTIVE RUEHXX/GENEVA IO MISSIONS COLLECTIVE RUEHBY/AMEMBASSY CANBERRA PRIORITY 0476 RUEHLI/AMEMBASSY LISBON PRIORITY 0403 RUEHLO/AMEMBASSY LONDON PRIORITY 0257 RUEHKO/AMEMBASSY TOKYO PRIORITY 0271 RUEHWL/AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON PRIORITY 0342 RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 0143 RHHMUNA/HQ USPACOM HONOLULU HI RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHDC RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC RUEHDT/AMEMBASSY DILI 1860
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000240
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS; USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD; JOINT STAFF FOR J5
E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/18/2016
TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR KDEM TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 18, 2006
DILI 00000240 001.2 OF 002
CLASSIFIED BY: Sean Stein, Charge de Affairs, Embassy Dili,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 DILI 000240
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS; USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD; JOINT STAFF FOR J5
E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/18/2016
TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR KDEM TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 18, 2006
DILI 00000240 001.2 OF 002
CLASSIFIED BY: Sean Stein, Charge de Affairs, Embassy Dili,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)
1. (C) SUMMARY.
- LIFE IN DILI
- FRETILIN CONGRESS DAY 2
- AMERICAN CITIZENS ISSUES
- EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE
- SECURITY ASSESSMENT
LIFE IN DILI
1. (U) The city continues to return to normal and there were
several reports of additional refugees returning to Dili. One
NGO representative commented that her organization is handing
out personal hygeine kits as quickly as possible before all of
the refugees return home. Transportation was functioning
normally; schools and markets were open. Despite a heavy
security presence, restaurants in the immediate area around the
party congress were open. There were 80 empty seats on outgoing
flights.
FRETILIN CONGRESS DAY 2 -- THE GAMES CONTINUE
2. (C) The Fretilin Congress reexamined the issue of secret
balloting in the context of the party constitution. Despite
heated debate on both sides, the Congress voted to leave
yesterday's decision to abolish secret balloting for party
leadership elections unchanged. In addition, the Alkatiri camp
continued to manipulate the process by limiting debate and
blocking key individuals such as Jose Luis Guterres from
speaking. According to informed delegates -- including those
not in the Guterres camp -- a majority of delegates wanted to
preserve the secret ballot but were afraid of being seen to
openly contradict the position taken by the Alkatiri camp.
3. (C) Guterres has indicated that he will withdraw his
candidacy if he concludes that the final version of the
constitution does not reflect "the true values of the Party".
Others observe that Guterres may have no choice but to withdraw
because his campaign has failed to gain any momentum.
AMERICAN CITIZENS ISSUES
4. (U) The Embassy hosted a town hall meeting at which 18
American citizens and 5 third-country nationals attended. There
are a total of 109 amcits in country according to the latest
information. Mission staff conducted a test of the Amcit
SMS-based warden system.
5. (U) Mission staff met formally with seven members of the
Australian planning team to ensure that our evacuation and
contingency plans were fully coordinated. Several issues were
identified for further clarification and discussion, including
the circumstances under which each other's nationals will be
allow to seek shelter in the other's compound.
EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE
6. (U) Post held an Emergency Action Committee meeting to
examine whether the recent developments of the Fretilin Party
Congress warranted a change in Mission security posture. The
EAC concluded that it did not.
SECURITY ASSESSMENT
7. (C) According to USDR, within the past 24 hrs at the Defense
Force HQ there have been indications of some increased levels of
contingency planning focused outside Dili. Maps of the western
areas where the dissident military are operating have been
posted with very basic graphic control measures. It's unclear
if this indicates an active planning process for offensive
action, or is just a product of boredom of those living in the
HQ for the past two weeks. The Defense Force doesn't generally
conduct deliberate planning. There are also indications that
officers thought to be loyal to Colonel Lere have been moved
DILI 00000240 002.2 OF 002
into command of other units. The Force has now moved the
equivalent of an Infantry Company to two sites in Dili, HQ and
MP HQ downtown. They also have a Company(+) in Metinaro Base,
35km outside Dili. These moves may have been part of
contingency planning to deal with any outbreak surrounding the
Party Congress.
8. (C) One likely outcome from a strong Alkatiri win at the
Fretilin Party Congress will be muted acceptance within the
population, with the possibility of delayed backlash once the
delegates return to their home districts, especially those in
the west. The Alkatiri win is likely to cause the dissident
military and Petitioners in the west to further entrench their
positions. If Alkatiri comes out of the congress in an
extremely strong position, this might raise the likelihood of
him taking action against the western factions at a later date
if it becomes apparent to him that he cannot get them to acceed
to the terms of the commissions currently in operation as
Alkatiri will see the continued presence of these armed groups
as having the potential to undermine his position in the long
term.
STEIN
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EAP/MTS; USPACOM FOR JOC AND POLAD; JOINT STAFF FOR J5
E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/18/2016
TAGS: ASEC PGOV MARR KDEM TT
SUBJECT: EAST TIMOR SITREP FOR MAY 18, 2006
DILI 00000240 001.2 OF 002
CLASSIFIED BY: Sean Stein, Charge de Affairs, Embassy Dili,
State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)
1. (C) SUMMARY.
- LIFE IN DILI
- FRETILIN CONGRESS DAY 2
- AMERICAN CITIZENS ISSUES
- EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE
- SECURITY ASSESSMENT
LIFE IN DILI
1. (U) The city continues to return to normal and there were
several reports of additional refugees returning to Dili. One
NGO representative commented that her organization is handing
out personal hygeine kits as quickly as possible before all of
the refugees return home. Transportation was functioning
normally; schools and markets were open. Despite a heavy
security presence, restaurants in the immediate area around the
party congress were open. There were 80 empty seats on outgoing
flights.
FRETILIN CONGRESS DAY 2 -- THE GAMES CONTINUE
2. (C) The Fretilin Congress reexamined the issue of secret
balloting in the context of the party constitution. Despite
heated debate on both sides, the Congress voted to leave
yesterday's decision to abolish secret balloting for party
leadership elections unchanged. In addition, the Alkatiri camp
continued to manipulate the process by limiting debate and
blocking key individuals such as Jose Luis Guterres from
speaking. According to informed delegates -- including those
not in the Guterres camp -- a majority of delegates wanted to
preserve the secret ballot but were afraid of being seen to
openly contradict the position taken by the Alkatiri camp.
3. (C) Guterres has indicated that he will withdraw his
candidacy if he concludes that the final version of the
constitution does not reflect "the true values of the Party".
Others observe that Guterres may have no choice but to withdraw
because his campaign has failed to gain any momentum.
AMERICAN CITIZENS ISSUES
4. (U) The Embassy hosted a town hall meeting at which 18
American citizens and 5 third-country nationals attended. There
are a total of 109 amcits in country according to the latest
information. Mission staff conducted a test of the Amcit
SMS-based warden system.
5. (U) Mission staff met formally with seven members of the
Australian planning team to ensure that our evacuation and
contingency plans were fully coordinated. Several issues were
identified for further clarification and discussion, including
the circumstances under which each other's nationals will be
allow to seek shelter in the other's compound.
EMERGENCY ACTION COMMITTEE
6. (U) Post held an Emergency Action Committee meeting to
examine whether the recent developments of the Fretilin Party
Congress warranted a change in Mission security posture. The
EAC concluded that it did not.
SECURITY ASSESSMENT
7. (C) According to USDR, within the past 24 hrs at the Defense
Force HQ there have been indications of some increased levels of
contingency planning focused outside Dili. Maps of the western
areas where the dissident military are operating have been
posted with very basic graphic control measures. It's unclear
if this indicates an active planning process for offensive
action, or is just a product of boredom of those living in the
HQ for the past two weeks. The Defense Force doesn't generally
conduct deliberate planning. There are also indications that
officers thought to be loyal to Colonel Lere have been moved
DILI 00000240 002.2 OF 002
into command of other units. The Force has now moved the
equivalent of an Infantry Company to two sites in Dili, HQ and
MP HQ downtown. They also have a Company(+) in Metinaro Base,
35km outside Dili. These moves may have been part of
contingency planning to deal with any outbreak surrounding the
Party Congress.
8. (C) One likely outcome from a strong Alkatiri win at the
Fretilin Party Congress will be muted acceptance within the
population, with the possibility of delayed backlash once the
delegates return to their home districts, especially those in
the west. The Alkatiri win is likely to cause the dissident
military and Petitioners in the west to further entrench their
positions. If Alkatiri comes out of the congress in an
extremely strong position, this might raise the likelihood of
him taking action against the western factions at a later date
if it becomes apparent to him that he cannot get them to acceed
to the terms of the commissions currently in operation as
Alkatiri will see the continued presence of these armed groups
as having the potential to undermine his position in the long
term.
STEIN