FRETILIN PARTY CONGRESS: RECENT EVENTS SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DILI 000224

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR EAP/MTS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 5/11/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM TT
SUBJECT: FRETILIN PARTY CONGRESS: RECENT EVENTS SIGNIFICANTLY ALTER
PROGNOSIS

REF: A) DILI 222 B) DILI 167

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CLASSIFIED BY: Elizabeth S. Wharton, Political Officer, Embassy
Dili, State.
REASON: 1.4 (b)


1. (C) Summary. In light of the serious unresolved issues and
current potential for unrest, Fretilin party leaders continue to
discuss whether the party Congress should go forward as planned
in Dili on May 17-19. Prime Minister Mari Alkatiri's public
popularity, never his strong suit, is at its lowest point ever
and many in the party now fear he could be a liability in the
2007 elections. However, he is a shrewd behind-the-scenes
campaigner and commands the financial and structural resources
of the party. Ambassador Jose Luis Guterres is still seen by
many as having an excellent chance to defeat Alkatiri in the
race for Fretilin Secretary-General, but the team he is working
with has garnered little confidence from some potential
supporters. The outcome may depend on a few prominent Fretilin
leaders who have yet to decide whom to support. Among these,
Aniceto Guterres, a former human rights lawyer and now a highly
respected member of the bilateral East Timor-Indonesia Truth and
Friendship Commission (TFC),may be most important. There are
also concerns about whether the Fretilin Party Congress will be
conducted democratically. Alkatiri critics accuse him and a few
key supporters of buying delegate votes, using high-pressure
tactics, and inciting fear, and they predict that more strong
arm tactics are prepared should Alkatiri appear in danger of
losing his position. End summary.

Congress to go as planned?
--------------


2. (SBU) The immediate question regarding the Fretilin Party
Congress is whether it will be held as planned in Dili from May
17-19. Public statements by Alkatiri in the last few days have
emphasized that the Congress will not be postponed, nor will the
venue be changed. See Ref A. However, Embassy sources report
that serious discussions about a possible postponement are
nonetheless underway. Alkatiri may be attempting to delay the
Congress but publicly distance himself from such a decision,
which will formally be taken this weekend during the Fretilin
Central Committee (CCF) meeting. Separately, we have also heard
that discussions continue about possibly relocating the Congress
to the eastern city of Baucau, despite the Prime Minister's May
9 announcement that he supports holding the conference in Dili
as previously planned. In addition to questions regarding the
date and location of the Congress, there is concern that
security concerns could deter some delegates from attending,
regardless of where and when the Congress is held. This concern
will be greater if the Congress is held in Baucau where many
western delegates might be unwilling to go.

Alkatiri: Strengths and Vulnerabilities
--------------


3. (SBU) The consensus among political observers is that the
events of the last two weeks have seriously eroded Alkatiri's
chances for reelection as Fretilin's Secretary General. Many
observers have noted that he appears to be frustrated with his
current situation and uncharacteristically uncertain regarding
how to proceed to regain political strength. However, his
chances are still calculated at about 50-50, given his continued
strength within the party, weaknesses on the part of his
opposition within the party, and the role of Alkatiri and his
allies in the delegate selection process that took place over
the last several months.

STRENGTHS

-- Alkatiri has the loyal party machinery and substantial funds
behind him and may still employ these to strong arm or otherwise
influence the delegates. Alkatiri's supporters are said to be
campaigning hard for him and are reportedly engaged in vote
buying.
-- He is a skilled behind-the-scenes campaigner, who has
consistently shown his ability to garner the support he needs
despite his lack of popularity with the public.
-- Many still see Alkatiri as the only candidate able to provide
the strength and competence to run the Government. However,

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Ambassador Guterres has hinted broadly that if elected Secretary
General he would not ask the party to select him as Prime
Minister but would instead endorse Foreign Minister Jose
Ramos-Horta, who is a popular and experienced leader. Although
Ramos-Horta has publicly endorsed Alkatiri for re-election, he
is personally close to Ambassador Guterres and would be
virtually certain to accept an offer to serve as transitional
Prime Minister through the 2007 elections.
-- Sources say that despite recent internal tensions Alkatiri's
core supporters, such as Minister for State Administration Ana
Pessoa, are pulling together as they see solidarity as their
only ticket to political survival.

VULNERABILITIES

-- The events of the last two weeks have resulted in Prime
Minister Alkatiri's public popularity dipping to probably the
lowest point ever. Public trust in his leadership has been
almost completely undermined by the widely held perception that
blame for the current situation ultimately lies with his
government and that he continues to mishandle the situation.
-- Many within Fretilin now are concerned that Alkatiri will be
a significant liability to the party in the 2007 elections.
Some are convinced that an Alkatiri-led Fretilin will lose,
others that it will still win but with a much slimmer margin of
victory.
-- Many of the delegates to the Party Congress are reported to
be willing to be critical and independent minded, and therefore
potentially impervious to Alkatiri strong-arm tactics. Fretilin
sources report that some reliable Alkatiri supporters failed in
their bids to be elected as delegates. It is also important to
note that party rules require that the delegates to the Congress
elect a Secretary General by secret ballot.
-- Alkatiri's apparent calculation that he could strengthen his
position by having the F-FDTL by his side has backfired
seriously. Rather, his association with recent F-FDTL actions
has weakened his position.
-- His attempts to undermine President Xanana Gusmao's power
have also backfired as he severely underestimated the durability
of Gusmao's popularity. Despite some public displays of
solidarity, Gusmao is known to be unhappy with Alkatiri's
handling of the situation. Although he has made several public
appearances with Alkatiri, he has been mostly silent in recent
days. It appears that rather than continuing his previous
efforts to co-operate with Alkatiri to resolve the current
crisis, President Gusmao now hopes the Fretilin Congress to
resolve the crisis by removing Alkatiri. (Embassy will report
on the President's views septel.)

Guterres: Strengths and Vulnerabilities
--------------


4. (SBU) Although other candidates could still emerge in the
race for Secretary General, so far the only challenger to
Alkatiri remains Ambassador Jose Luis Guterres. Key political
sources describe his chances of winning as having increased
dramatically in recent weeks. More and more opposition factions
within Fretilin are said to be uniting around him and even some
staunch Alkatiri supporters are said to be considering a shift
in alliances. However, he has spent the overwhelming majority
of his time during the last four years in New York and did not
return to Timor to campaign until very recently. More
importantly, Ambassador Guterres' support comes from an uneven
assortment of personal friends, genuine reformers, and Alkatiri
opponents of various stripes, some of whom do not command the
same respect as the Ambassador himself.

STRENGTHS
-- Guterres is widely liked and respected and viewed as having
the competence and gravitas to lead the country. Despite his
long absence from the country for his ambassadorship to the
United Nations and the United States, he remains well known.
-- In conversations with Emboffs as in his public statements,
Guterres has conveyed a strong and consistent message focused on
national unity, transparency in governance, and the need for
increased openness to dialogue with the opposition and civil
society, particularly including the Catholic Church. Especially
in the current environment, this message is likely to resonate
strongly.

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-- An increasing number of the various anti-Alkatiri factions
are reportedly coalescing around Guterres.
-- Guterres also may be attracting the interest of some
previously staunch Alkatiri supporters, although this is hard to
confirm as most are still weighing their options and are not
divulging any plans they may have to switch sides.

VULNERABILITIES
-- Guterres has very little time to develop an effective
campaign and to build networks in the districts. Having only
made his intentions to run known less than two months ago, he
has spent only a few weeks in Timor during the run-up to the
Congress.
-- Some of the people and factions with whom he is linked so far
do not instill confidence among other potential supporters.
These primarily include members of the "Group of 20" or
"renovators", who are generally not taken seriously within the
party. Other potential allies who could accelerate his
momentum, such as Aniceto Guterres (see below),have not yet
decided whether to support him.
-- So far Ambassador Guterres has no clear running mate for
Fretilin Party President, the second-ranking position in the
party. Many potential supporters are waiting to see whom he
selects. In a recent conversation with Emboff he identified
Egidio de Jesus, the Secretary of State for Region III, as a
possible candidate for party president. However, de Jesus is a
relative unknown and it is hard to see what benefit he would
bring to Guterres' campaign.

Aniceto Guterres Emerging as Possible Kingmaker
-------------- --


5. (C) The allegiances of several key players remain unknown or
undecided, but could be determinative in the Congress's outcome.
Of these, Aniceto Guterres --- formerly East Timor's most
prominent human rights lawyer and head of the Commission for
Reception, Truth and Reconciliation (CAVR) and current member of
the bilateral Truth and Friendship Commission (TFC) --- seems to
be emerging as the key potential kingmaker. According to
Embassy sources both the Alkatiri and Guterres camps are avidly
courting him. In addition, he is still being pressured by some
in the party to run for the Secretary General position. He has
also been mentioned as a possible candidate for President on a
ticket with Ambassador Guterres. To date, however, Aniceto
Guterres has indicated that he is deeply reluctant to run for
either of these positions and apparently remains undecided
regarding whom he will support at the upcoming Congress.


6. (C) In a conversation with Emboff on May 10, Aniceto Guterres
conveyed his opinion that there is no candidate strong enough to
replace Alkatiri, describing Ambassador Guterres as "strong but
unpredictable" and lacking sufficient time to mount a proper
campaign. However, he continued, an Alkatiri-led Fretilin will,
in his opinion, lose the 2007 elections. He appeared to be
deeply uncertain about how to proceed. He said he prefers to
not run for any Fretilin office, but he did not foreclose the
possibility of joining the Ambassador Guterres ticket as the
candidate for President of the party if he determines during the
Congress that there is no other alternative. On the other hand,
he also indicated that he might be receptive to continued
leadership by Alkatiri if accompanied by significant changes to
the party structure leading to a democratization of
decision-making.


7. (SBU) Meanwhile, Abel Ximenes, the recently resigned Minister
for Development, remains another unknown quantity in the race.
He has recently been rumored to be joining Ambassador Guterres'
campaign, but so far is keeping his options open and still
considering a run for Secretary General. Another individual
whose allegiance is considered important is Aderito Soares, a
well-known lawyer and human rights activist. However, Soares
reports that he is currently advising both the Alkatiri and
Guterres camps, despite his assessment that Guterres may be the
best available option.


8. Comment: The range of opinion among the Fretilin party
activists with whom Emboffs discussed the upcoming Congress
differs markedly from the widespread public belief that Alkatiri
will lose unless the Congress is postponed. Recent

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conversations with senior Timorese leaders including President
Gusmao, Foreign Minister Ramos-Horta, and Bishop Basilio
Nascimento suggest that these leaders also believe Ambassador
Guterres is the likely winner. (These conversations will be
reported in septels.) Ultimately, however, the matter will be
decided not by these leaders or by the public but by about 600
Fretilin party regulars. The insiders' consensus appears to be
that Alkatiri is in serious danger but cannot be counted out.
End comment.
REES