QUAD AGREEMENT ON BANGLADESH ELECTION THRESHOLDS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 DHAKA 006179

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/05/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM BG UK AS CA
SUBJECT: QUAD AGREEMENT ON BANGLADESH ELECTION THRESHOLDS
AND CARETAKER GOVERNMENT ENGAGEMENT FRAMEWORK

REF: A. OTTAWA 1686


B. DHAKA 3870

C. DHAKA 4254

Classified By: DCM Geeta Pasi; reason 1.4(d)


1. (C) On October 4, the U.S., U.K., Australian, and Canadian
heads of mission met and gave final approval for the
UK-drafted elections threshold paper and the U.S.-drafted
caretaker government engagement framework (see below). The
heads of mission also discussed efforts to promote dialogue
and confidence building measures between the ruling
Bangladesh Nationalist Party and the opposition Awami League,
which continues to threaten street action and an election
boycott absent major changes in the electoral and caretaker
regime systems.


2. (C) The U.S., U.K., Australian and Canadian heads of
mission have been meeting informally since July to coordinate
strategies with regard to the upcoming 2007 elections. This
small grouping, which maintains a decidedly low profile,
seeks to facilitate cooperation in a manner that the unwieldy
"Tuesday Group" (a larger group) did not successfully manage.



3. (SBU) Texts of the elections thresholds paper and the
caretaker government engagement framework are set out below.


BEGIN TEXT

Election Thresholds Paper
--------------

Introduction

Bangladesh is at a critical juncture. The next parliamentary
election, under the provisions of the Constitution, is
scheduled to be held in January 2007. It is potentially a
defining moment in the country's history, not least for the
maintenance of democracy. A contested election seen to be
free, fair, peaceful, and accepted by all is essential if
Bangladesh is to strengthen its democratic credentials and
improve governance. A failed election could damage the
social fabric of Bangladesh, impair its democratic
foundations, fuel the rise of extremism, and impact on the
country's ability to meet its MDG targets.

The burgeoning political-criminal nexus that afflicts
Bangladeshi politics has led to the existence of a "winner
takes all" mentality, which in large part shapes the actions
of the major political parties. Unless harnessed and
monitored, the opportunities for violence, fraud, and
election engineering are very real. The incumbent government
(the BNP led 4 Party alliance) already stands accused of
attempts to manipulate the election. The most serious
allegations relate to:

-- The appointments of: the Chief Election Commissioner - who
is viewed as incapable of discharging his duties in a
transparent and competent manner - and the Chief Adviser (the
last Chief Justice) to the Caretaker Government - an ex-BNP
party member whose appointment was engineered through a
change in retirement rules;

-- Manipulation of the voter list; and

-- Appointment of people loyal to BNP/Jamaat (including in
the public sector) to positions where they can influence both
the conduct and the outcome of the election, including at the
district level.

Against this backdrop, this paper seeks to identify a set of
thresholds against three key issues, which can be applied to
the election and which the international community is able to
use to measure the success of the election under the
following criteria: Free, Fair, Peaceful, Contested, and
Accepted.


An Independent and Competent Election Commission (EC)
-------------- --------------

DHAKA 00006179 002 OF 004



Measures:

-- The Chief Election Commissioner should immediately take
the necessary steps to address the perceptions of
incompetence and bias which are undermining public confidence
in the electoral process.

-- The EC acts independently of the government in a manner
that is both transparent and competent (including dialogue
with all stakeholders in the electoral process).

-- The EC delivers an accurate and inclusive (with religious
minorities, people with disabilities, ultra poor and women
included) voter's list. Inaccuracies within the list must
fall within internationally accepted norms.

-- The EC administers voting day in a transparent and
competent manner:

-- Voters have access to well designed, un-tampered ballots;

-- Poll officers are properly trained;

-- Domestic and international observers have unlimited access
to polling stations, vote counting centers, and the storage,
labeling, transportation, and opening of ballot boxes.

-- The compilation and announcement of results is transparent.

-- The EC investigates and takes action on reported cases of
candidate spending using "black money" and cases of vote
buying and vote fraud.


A Credible Caretaker Government (CG) and President
-------------- --------------

Measures:

-- The Caretaker Government should be formed according to the
rules provided in the Constitution and discharge its duties
in a transparent, impartial, and non-partisan manner.

-- The 10 Advisers of the Caretaker Government (CG) are
selected in a transparent and fair manner and in consultation
with all stakeholders. Members discharge their duties in a
non-partisan fashion, free from intimidation.

-- The CG ensures equal, non-partisan election coverage by
state-owned media.

-- In the pre-poll period, the CG sets clear written
guidelines for the behavior and actions of officials,
including police and local government; investigates without
delay all allegations of malfeasance by such officials which
could distort the vote; and acts promptly to counter any
wrongdoing, including by removal/transfer of offending
officials.

-- The President acts in a non-partisan fashion during the
period of the CG, particularly with regard to the conduct and
possible deployment of the military.


A Peaceful Election
--------------

Measures:

-- Violence and intimidation are not used by the government
or the opposition as a tactic to secure votes or
disenfranchise voters. All violence is condemned by the CG.

-- Attacks on candidates condemned by all sides. Responsible
agencies provide adequate levels of security to candidates
and officials.

-- When marshalling peaceful protests/ campaign rallies, law
enforcement agencies monitor but do not interfere in peaceful
demonstrations which do not threaten harm to people or
property and, if obliged to respond to violence, do not do so

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disproportionately.

-- Law enforcement agencies, particularly the Rapid Action
Battalion, do not assume roles which exceed those expected of
them and do not act in a partisan manner.

-- The media, civil society organizations and religious
minority groups enjoy freedom of expression and are not
targets of violence.

-- If serious pre- or post-election violence erupts, the
appropriate law enforcement and military personnel are
deployed to carry out a mandate that is limited to the
electoral process and public safety, and do so.


Other Measures
--------------

-- The election should be time bound and held as planned in
January 2007.

-- In case of an opposition boycott, voter turnout must be at
a credible level.


IMPLEMENTATION

It will not necessarily be the case that failure under a
majority of measures in each heading will constitute overall
failure; certain indicators carry more weight than others.
But it is against these measures that the electoral process
and behavior of the political parties, the CG, and EC will
now be judged. The cumulative effect of their actions will
determine our final decision.


COMMUNICATIONS

Though these thresholds should not become public property, it
is important that we are able to share our "expectations"
with all, making it clear that the whole process is under
scrutiny. We can take a proactive approach to this, e.g.
through press conferences, statements, placed articles,
interviews etc., and for greatest impact seek to do so both
individually and collectively, though groupings should not be
limited to Tea-Group members. We should look to
include/persuade other like-minded partners (e.g. EU, Japan)
to participate.

Follow-up will be reactive and determined by the actions of
those under scrutiny against the measures set out above. The
nature of our response/reaction will be decided on a case by
case visit.

END TEXT OF ELECTIONS THRESHHOLDS PAPER


BEGIN TEXT

Caretaker Government Engagement Framework
--------------

I Primary Objective

To encourage and support Caretaker Government efforts to hold
a successful election.


II The Key Threats to a Successful Election


1. Violence of a magnitude that challenges government
authority and the anticipated election schedule.


2. Concrete moves by the Awami League to boycott the
election, either on a pretext or because of a significantly
lopsided playing field.


III What a Good Chief Caretaker Adviser Should Do


1. Appoint credible caretaker ministers.

DHAKA 00006179 004 OF 004



2. Affirm commitment to a free and fair election.

3. Ensure equal, non-partisan election coverage by
state-owned media.

4. Examine/redress the appointment of blatantly political
police and local government officials placed to manipulate
the electoral process.

5. Establish a productive relationship with the Chief
Election Commissioner.

6. Condemn and take effective action against election-related
violence, including attacks on religious minorities and the
media.

7. Support as needed local and foreign election observers.

8. Avoid real or perceived acts of partisanship to minimize
prospects of an election boycott.

9. Ensure law enforcement agencies, particularly the Rapid
Action Battalion, do not act in a partisan manner.

10. Support the appropriate deployment, and powers, of law
enforcement and military personnel.


IV What the USG Should Do


1. Seek an early meeting with the Chief Caretaker Adviser to
underscore our support without favor for a successful
election.

2. Meet early with all half-dozen Caretaker ministers to
identify potential partners/major problems and underscore key
USG objectives and concerns.

3. Meet early and regularly with key ministerial Secretaries
(Home, Foreign Affairs, Finance) and the Chief of Army
Staff/other key military officers to underscore objectives
and concerns and work problems (e.g., violence or a
flagrantly flawed voter list) that threaten a successful
election.

4. Work with officials to ensure that foreign, and local,
observers have the conditions to be successful.

5. Support Caretaker Government efforts in support of Section
III items.


V What Should Be Done Multilaterally


1. Multilateral and bilateral donors should parallel our
actions and statements.

2. If there is a major threat to the election, like a
tactical Awami League boycott of the election in pursuit of a
1996 strategy of confrontation or if the Chief Election
Commissioner has become an insurmountable obstacle or if
BNP/JI-linked violence has reached precipitous levels, a
diplomatic coalition of the willing should act in concert,
either with public statements or via group demarches.

END TEXT.


4. (C) Comment: The group plans to continue meeting
regularly and will discuss next steps on the heels of the
dialogue progress reported septel. End comment.
BUTENIS